UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena Preview and Predictions

The UFC heads north to Montreal this weekend for a loaded pay-per-view event complete with two championship fights atop the marquee. The UFC 315 main event will be the first title defense for welterweight champion Belal Muhammad, who claimed the belt via decision over Leon Edwards last July. The Chicago native will be 37 years old this summer, and, if he is going to put together a Hall-of-Fame-worthy title reign, he needs to kick it off with a dominant performance over Jack Della Maddalena. Della Maddalena has two losses on his professional record, and they came in his first two professional bouts. Since then he has rattled off seventeen consecutive wins, including all seven of his fights under the UFC banner. In five of those seven wins he has claimed post-fight bonuses.

The co-main event will see the women’s flyweight title on the line. Valentina Shevchenko regained her belt in the trilogy fight against Alexa Grasso in dominant fashion and is out to prove that she is still the greatest woman to fight at 125 pounds. Trying to dethrone the champ is a French destroyer in Manon Fiorot. “The Beast” last fought over a year ago when she scored a lopsided decision victory over Erin Blanchfield. Many fans and pundits alike think she has the skills necessary to give the champion a difficult test and opened up on many sportsbooks as a slight favorite.

Also on the main card is a featherweight bout featuring former champion and recently unretired Jose Aldo, as he takes on the younger brother of one of the greatest minds in MMA, Faras Zahabi. Aiemann Zahabi has come into his own over the past few years, rattling off five wins after losing two fights in a row. This is the highest profile test for Zahabi, who will look to capitalize on an aging Aldo to try and vault himself into status as a contender.

The aforementioned Alexa Grasso will be fighting on this card as well as she takes on the dangerous Natalia Silva. Grasso needs a win to bounce back after being thumped by Shevchenko in their third fight but Silva is no cake walk. Silva has put together a winning streak of twelve fights with wins over notable names like Jasmine Jasudavicius, Andrea Lee, and former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade in her most recent fight.

Opening up the main card is former French special forces soldier Benoit Saint-Denis as he takes on Windsor, Ontario native Kyle Prepolec. This is a huge opportunity for the debutant Prepolec, going up against a talented fighter on the main card of a PPV in his home country. Should he be able to pull out a victory it would immediately make him a name to watch in the lightweight division.

The UFC 315 early prelims airs live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the preview and predictions.

Belal Muhammad is known for largely winning fights by decision; can he score a stoppage victory in this showdown with Jack Della Maddalena?

Not only do I not think Belal Muhammad gets a stoppage, I don’t think he gets the victory. Muhammad is talented to the highest level, there is no doubt about that, but he just isn’t exciting. That is a large part of the reason why it took him so long to get a title shot in the first place. He is good everywhere and often relies on his volume striking to close the distance and implement his pressure heavy wrestling attack. The problem for many people viewing his fights is that he does not do much ground and pound once he gets into dominant positions and can frustrate fans with the lack of damage. He also frustrates his opponents and forces them to make mistakes that let him continue to remain in a dominant position so it is a smart style.

However, I think there are two major reasons why he does not get the win this weekend. First, he is an older fighter, and that wrestling-heavy style takes a toll on the body in the fight but perhaps more so in training. You can’t keep those skills sharp without drilling them repeatedly and there is no quicker way to wear out the joints. He will be slightly less than his best and at the championship level that can often make the difference between scoring a takedown and having it defended.

The second reason why I think Muhammad comes out on the wrong end of this one is because he is facing a fighter who has a style that can give him problems everywhere the fight takes place.

Jack Della Maddalena is part of the new generation of fighters who have begun training mixed martial arts as a whole, not one specialty that then gets rounded out as they advance towards a professional career. There aren’t holes in his game and he will be able to avoid being smothered by Muhammad. The longer this fight stays at range, the better he will fare but if he does find himself on his back he will not only be able to avoid any damage coming his way but he can work well from his guard, either landing elbows or finding a sweep to transition into a better position or a submission.

Fans won’t be complaining about Muhammad going the distance, because he will get stopped inside the fourth round this weekend.

This is Valentina Shevchenko’s first title defense since reclaiming the belt; can she stop the Manon Fiorot hype train?

No. This fight is going to be a kickboxing match in four-ounce gloves, and the challenger will be the faster and more accurate combatant. I have to preface that statement by saying that in her prime Valentina Shevchenko is the best fighter to have fought in the women’s flyweight division but she is a little bit past those prime years at this point, and Manon Fiorot is absolutely at her best. I don’t think that Shevchenko will be able to use her judo to get the fight to the mat, where she would have an advantage. Fiorot is too fleet of foot to let her get that close and will be able to frustrate the former champion as she picks her apart from the outside.

This one goes the distance, but there will be no doubt when the scorecards are read. A new champion will be crowned.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 315?

Aiemann Zahabi. He is going to take out a legend. This will be the biggest win of his career, and he is going to do it in front of a hometown crowd. They don’t get much better than that.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 315?

It is hard not to say Belal Muhammad, but, since I’ve touched on him already, I’ll stick with the fight from the last question and say Jose Aldo. He came back after retiring and went 1-1 at bantamweight and is clearly not the same fighter he was in his prime. Missing weight and having to fight this weekend at featherweight will not end well. Aldo will be slower, his leg kicks will be answered by stiff jabs by Zahabi, and he will look bad as he gets picked apart.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Benoit Saint-Denis. That pains me because I am on the record saying that he would be a UFC champion before he retired. However, he may have jumped into the deep end too quickly. He has lost back-to-back fights and took some pretty gnarly damage in his last fight against Renato Moicano. He is known to withstand damage en route to wins but you can only do that for so long. If he comes up short and gets dealt a lot of punishment this weekend, he may have to rethink his future plans.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba. Just pure fun in this showdown. Two hard hitting light heavyweights who will be trying to take off the head of their opponent. Bet the under in this one, someone is going to sleep

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Mike Malott. He bounced back from a bad loss to Neil Magny by defeating Trevin Giles but he needs to make a statement this weekend to reassert himself in the welterweight division. I expect he gets a dominant win over Charles Radtke, stopping him in the first round and earning a post-fight check.

Pair this card with…

A steak burrito bowl from Chipotle. Load it up with fresh tomato salsa, tomatillo red chili salsa, roasted chili-corn salsa, cheese, romaine lettuce, skip the beans, and go with white rice. Like this fight card, it is just a solid, can’t miss choice.