UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes Preview and Predictions

It is fight week, and the vacant featherweight title is on the line, as former champion Alexander Volkanovski looks to reclaim the belt against rising star Diego Lopes. Volkanovski has struggled recently, losing his bid to become a two-division champion after being kicked in the head by Islam Makhachev. After that loss, he arguably returned to action too quickly and was subsequently knocked out by Ilia Topuria, losing the featherweight title in the process. That fight was over a year ago and Volkanovski is hoping that the extended time off has given him time to fully recover and that he will be back better than ever, as he looks to return to glory against Lopes.

Lopes has been riding a hot streak, and he has rattled off five wins in a row. His most recent win came via a dominant decision over former title challenger Brian Ortega. Showing off a well-rounded skill set, Lopes has more than earned his chance to claim gold, and a win over a legendary figure like Volkanovski could catapult him into stardom.

The co-main event is a unique clash of fighters, with the brash Paddy Pimblett taking on the lightweight version of the energizer bunny in Michael Chandler. Pimblett burst into the worldwide fight scene with his mouth leading the way, and his fighting largely backing it up successfully. He has scored a number of wins inside the UFC and polarized fans along the way. There are some who think he is one win away from becoming the next big thing, and some who think that he is one loss away from being exposed as more bark than bite.

Chandler is just the opponent to give fans an answer. He is seemingly unfamiliar with the idea of a feeling-out period, beginning every fight with full bore offense, and, many times, using his face to block his opponent’s counter strikes. If Pimblett can withstand the pressure that Chandler brings and emerge with a win, it would go a long way towards shutting up any doubters about his ability in the Octagon.

Also on the main card is a featherweight showdown that might not have title implications, but nevertheless, has a great deal of buzz. Outspoken and controversial fighter Bryce Mitchell called out Jean Silva after the latter made a comment that the devout Christian found blasphemous. Now the pair will settle their dispute inside the cage.

The UFC 314 early prelims air on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

Alexander Volkanovski has lost three of his last four fights, yet still finds himself fighting for the title; can the former champion regain his belt and thwart the oncoming force of Diego Lopes?

Sumian: Can I just say, this event is going rock. The amount of awesome fights is going to keep the Miami crowd roaring from start to finish. Now, back to business.

It is pretty crazy just how much Alexander Volkanovski has been written off after suffering losses to Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria. Both are two of the very best fighters in the world and faced a Volkanovski that was on the back end of his career. Between Dec. 2019 and Jul. 2023, the former champion compiled the second best title run in UFC featherweight history and convincingly defeated top-tier contenders with minimal resistance. This is clearly Volkanovski’s final title shot, and a loss to the surging Diego Lopes will effectively end his time at the top of the division.

I would bet that many believe that Volkanovski has more to lose in this fight than Lopes. I would argue the exact opposite. For Lopes, capturing the UFC featherweight title and defeating the second greatest featherweight in UFC history will launch him into super stardom. He will undoubtedly be tasked with headlining UFC Noche in the Fall and establish himself as must-see TV by not only Mexicans fans, but also the MMA world as a whole. However, he will first need to get through the former champion, who is significantly more experienced and battle tested.

The biggest question mark in this fight will be Lopes’s experience. Is he ready to take on the elite of the division, or does he still need time to develop into an elite featherweight? His most recent victories came at the expense of Sodiq Yusuff, an hours-notice Dan Ige, and, most recently, a declining Brian Ortega. These are definitely solid wins, but it doesn’t necessarily scream title shot. Secondly, this will be the first time Lopes will compete in a five-round UFC fight. He will likely give up a cardio advantage to the former champion, and it is possible that he will fade as the fight gets into the championship rounds.

Despite all of this, Lopes is a tenacious and fearless competitor. He does not seem to fear anyone or anything and continues to move forward with powerful combinations and knockout power in both fists. His most obvious path to victory will be to blitz the former champion using his size, power and speed, scoring a knockout victory before the end of the second round.

Volkanovski is one of the best UFC champions in MMA history, and his legacy will forever live on. However, he has a chance to take his legacy to the next level if he can recapture the UFC featherweight title and defeat one of the sport’s most popular and dangerous contenders in Lopes. Volkanovski will undoubtedly try to utilize his movement, experience, and cardio to stay clear of Lopes’s power and land leg kicks, counters, and takedowns. He certainly has the tools to defeat Lopes in convincing fashion and has, without question, faced better competition between the two. For Volkanovski, it will all come down to how he takes Lopes’s best punches. He has suffered two brutal knockouts in his last two fights that the body can only keep up for so long. When it comes to MMA skill sets, the former champion has a huge advantage, and it will take all of those skills to regain his title.

I am extremely torn on this one. It would be fantastic to see the former champion regain his title after suffering two pretty brutal defeats. However, it would also be awesome to watch Lopes become a huge star and take the featherweight division into a new era. Either way, it’s a win-win, because both of these competitors are entertaining, likable and exceptional fighters.

Unfortunately for Volkanovski, the evening will belong to Lopes. I just cannot imagine a world where Lopes is unable to land in a five-round title fight. He may not knockout the former champ, but he will hurt him enough, and this will cause the former champion to go into survival mode rather than executing a game plan. This will be a back-and-forth fight, but it will be Lopes that wins a unanimous decision victory to the capture the title and become the next big thing at 145 pounds.

Petela: I am not nearly as torn as my colleague on this fight. I have fully bought into the idea that the best version of Alexander Volkanovski is long gone and will not be seen again. Getting knocked out changes fighters, especially twice in a short time span. His position on the featherweight Mt. Rushmore is secure, but this will be the last time we see him in a bout with gold on the line.

This is a changing-of-the-guard fight. For almost a decade, UFC featherweight title fights have featured Max Holloway, Volkanovski, or both of them. With Lopes claiming gold this weekend, it ushers in a new generation of contenders at 145 pounds, and it will be the likes of Lopes, Movsar Evloev, and company who become the new staples at the top of the division, as guys like Holloway and Volkanovski take a few big money fights as they close out their extraordinary careers.

This is a huge step forward in competition for Paddy Pimblett; can “The Baddy” prove that he is a legitimate contender and defeat Michael Chandler?

Petela: Not going to happen. I am still firmly off the Paddy Pimblett hype train. His in-cage abilities just don’t live up to his extracurricular flamboyance and brash personality. Michael Chandler is going to absolutely obliterate Pimblett in this fight. In typical Chandler fashion, there will be no feeling-out period. Chandler will push forward, land a big shot and then use that to take Pimblett down and put him on his back. From there, he will play Pimblett’s head like the bongos and do his best to try and blast a hole in the cage floor with Pimblett’s face. It is likely the opposite of what the UFC is hoping for, as an aging veteran, who has already seen his hopes for a title pass him by, takes out a fan-favorite prospect, who everyone is dying to become a contender. Nevertheless, Chandler gets his hand raised and Pimblett gets a concussion and a couple black eyes.

Sumian: If this was the Michael Chandler that fought Dustin Poirier back in 2022, I would absolutely agree with my colleague. Unfortunately, Chandler has done nothing but waste away waiting for a fight that is never going to happen with Conor McGregor. After a two-year hiatus, Chandler returned to rematch Charles Oliveira at UFC 309 and looked god awful. Yes, he had a nice little flurry in Round 5, after blatantly cheating throughout the entire fight, but was soundly defeated by Oliveira from start to finish.

Beating Tony Ferguson and King Green is not impressive, let me be clear. However, that is not Paddy Pimblett’s fault. The UFC has built him up perfectly and given the right amount of competition with every Octagon appearance. Now, he will take on one of the world’s most notable and experienced lightweights in Chandler. This is not only a huge step-up in competition for Pimblett, but also the toughest test of his UFC campaign. He will have a height, reach and size advantage over the bulkier and shorter Chandler, which should help be able to stay away from Chandler’s power punches and takedowns.

I am not counting out Chandler in any way. He is undoubtedly the more experienced and skilled fighter between the two. However, I think Pimblett is going to get this done and in impressive fashion. He will hurt Chandler, follow him to the ground and lock up a submission. This will be the English native’s coming-out party, and he will probably find himself two fights away from a title shot if he is successful Saturday night.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 314?

Sumian: I am going to go with Patricio Pitbull. I am bummed it took this long to get him into the UFC, but better late than ever. Pitbull is definitely one of the top five featherweights of all time, and Yair Rodriguez is the perfect dance partner for his UFC introduction. He is going to be able to negate Rodriguez’s offense and dominate from start to finish. I would not be shocked if we see Pitbull fighting for the featherweight title at some point in late 2025 or early 2026.

Petela: Ilia Topuria. With Alexander Volkanovski regaining the featherweight title by defeating Diego Lopes, it bolsters Topuria’s position in the pound-for-pound rankings.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 314?

Petela: Bryce Mitchell. He has fallen on hard times outside the cage, and his last performance, though a victory, wasn’t exactly inspiring. He stopped a shell of Kron Gracie in the third round, but really all people can talk about is his insane notion that Adolf Hitler could have been a good fishing buddy and subsequently denying the holocaust. When Jean Silva blasts him to pieces, it will probably be to the delight of many fans, and Mitchell will probably want to stay away from the internet for a while. Maybe he will go on a voyage to the end of the flat earth to clear his mind and get back on track.

Sumian: Dan Ige. The man is awesome and very entertaining. However, he has been unable to take his game to the next step and is only getting older. Sean Woodson is going to give him problems, due to his height and reach, despite Ige’s best attempts. Woodson by unanimous decision.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: He is not in danger of being cut, but this is make or break for Yair Rodriguez. The flashy strikes and athleticism is fun and all, but the former interim featherweight champion has definitely passed his peak. A loss to an older Patricio Pitbull will make it clear that Rodriguez is not capable of handling the throne at 145 pounds, and his best days are behind him.

Petela: Michal Oleksiejczuk. Three losses in a row used to be a guaranteed ticket to the unemployment line; that is where Oleksiejczuk finds himself coming into this contest against Sedriques Dumas. He has lost four of his last five, and those three consecutive losses have all come by stoppage. If Oleksiejczuk falls to 1-5 over his last six outings, there is no way he stays on the promotion’s roster.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Chase Hooper vs. Jim Miller. It seems like there are a dozen generations of fighters who have come and gone since Miller started fighting. Hooper is one of the brightest up-and-coming talents who is constantly making improvements to round out his skills. On paper, the young, hungry fighter should be able to take out the aging veteran and use the win to make a name for himself. That may well be what happens in this one, but if there’s one thing of which I’m certain, it is that Miller will make him earn it, and this fight will be entertaining no matter what the outcome.

Sumian: I think Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes is going to be an awesome fight. These days, it is hard getting epic light heavyweight fights, but these two are going to scrap, and someone is going to get finished. Both men finish fights and go all in with every Octagon performance. We will see a wild first round, before someone goes down or gets submitted in Round 2.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Jean Silva. He is going to knock Bryce Mitchell out in the second round and make a lot of people happy. The UFC will definitely capitalize on this and reward him for not giving Mitchell an opportunity to get on the mic.

Petela: Darren Elkins. He is going to turn his fight against Julian Erosa into a good old fashioned donnybrook. Erosa will have more precise striking, better footwork, and will be faster. Unfortunately for him, none of that matters against Elkins. Elkins will do what he always does and make this thing gritty and grimy. Constant wrestling threats and attacks on Erosa’s neck will wear down “Juicy J” before a third-round overhand will score Elkins a big knockout win.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Meat sauce with penne noodles and fettuccine Alfredo. The main event is the simple, yet delicious meat sauce type of fight. Two grinders who get the job done well at an extremely high level. The co-main event is a bit more flashy, the Alfredo. A little more pizzazz, but just as much substance.

Sumian: Man, I don’t even know where to go with this, because I am so excited. It has been a while since I have been this excited for a card. There are incredible fights from top to bottom, and I truly believe this card is going to deliver a much needed epic pay-per-view event. I will tell you what I will be pairing this card with – 15 wild UFC fans and meat from a local butcher shop called Aria Meat, which has some of the best spicy chicken you will ever put on a grill. Pair that with a fridge full of seltzers, chilled tequila, and snacks all around. Let’s have some fun, folks.