UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg Preview and Predictions

The international schedule continues for the UFC as they go from London over to Mexico City with a fight card topped by a battle between two elite flyweights with UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg.

Brandon Moreno has been the face of the flyweight division for the past several years. His thrilling tetralogy with Deiveson Figueiredo was one of the greatest rivalries in the history of the sport. He has since dropped his title to Alexandre Pantoja, a fighter who has had his number since the days of The Ultimate Fighter Season 24. He has gone 1-1 since losing his belt and the 31-year-old still has aspirations of being champion once again. Standing in his path is a former title challenger who burst onto the scene in Steve Erceg. Erceg was unable to take the title from the aforementioned Pantoja, and, then, he lost his fight after that via TKO to Kai Kara-France. He is in major need of a bounce-back fight to reestablish himself as someone to look out for at 125 pounds.

The co-main event is a can’t-miss lightweight tilt between two entertaining talents in Drew Dober and Manuel Torres. Dober has been on a bit of a skid, dropping two straight and three of his last four. He is closer to 40 years old than 30, and the time left in his career is limited, but a victory over Torres would prove that the Nebraska native still deserves to be in high-profile fights. Torres suffered his first loss under the UFC banner in his last fight. It was also his first loss by knockout. Taking out a veteran like Dober could be just the bounce-back he needs to remind fans that he is a prospect to keep an eye on moving forward.

The event airs live on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Brandon Moreno essentially has a home game this weekend; will the crowd bolster him to victory over Steve Erceg?

Sumian: This is, without a doubt, one of the best matchups the UFC could have made at flyweight. Steve Erceg has taken the UFC by storm since joining the promotion in Jun. 2023. He has competed five times, taken on several noteworthy contenders and fought Alexandra Pantoja to a decision in his fourth-ever UFC fight. On other hand, we have Brandon Moenreo, who is undoubtedly the most loved and marketable flyweight competing in the UFC today. He brings a certain charisma to the Octagon and is still one of the most dangerous flyweights in the world at only 31 years old. This matchup should be electric from start to finish, as two of the world’s most exciting flyweights meet center stage.

In some ways, I feel bad for Erceg. The former title challenger was one of more capable contenders at flyweight, but his time to develop was cut short due to a title shot opportunity in his fourth UFC fight. The results of that proved that he simply was not ready for that level of competition, despite putting on a respectable performance. In his next UFC appearance, he was quickly finished by longtime contender Kai Kara-France, further proving that he needs more to develop and was undoubtedly robbed of that.

Despite all this, Erceg is exciting, likable and definitely worthy of holding a top-10 flyweight ranking. The Perth native is tall and lengthy for the division, and he possesses fairly good standup and ground game in his arsenal. The biggest problem is the level of competition, and it is hard to make up experience after being put on a rocket to the moon. If Erceg can find a way to get past Brandon Moreno on home turf, it would absolutely launch him back into the title picture sooner rather than later.

Between Jun. 2021 and Jul. 2023, Moreno faced Deiveson Figueriredo four times, became the UFC interim flyweight champion once and the undisputed flyweight champion twice. That has to be one of the most bizarre, yet incredible, runs in MMA history. At 31 years old, Monroe has already accomplished so much as a UFC competitor, and there is a lot of time to do more.

In regards to legacy, the one thing missing from Moreno’s career is a noteworthy title run. If he is able to capture the UFC flyweight belt for a third time and rack up two or three title defenses, it puts him in a very different position when remembering his legacy. That being said, the flyweight division is only getting better, and there are a number of contenders coming up the ranks, including Tatsuro Taira, Manel Kape, Charles Johnson, and Joshua Van. Simply put, flyweight is only getting deeper, and Moreno’s time to capture the title for a third time must be now.

In last week’s preview, I had no doubt in mind that Sean Brady was going to dismantle Leon Edwards before securing a submission to end the evening. This week, my stance is similar. I do not believe this a good matchup for Erceg, and I expect Moreno to dominate from start to finish. Moreno is simply the better fighter at this point in time and has fought the better competition by miles. Erceg will always be game, but he will once again struggle when taking on a far more experienced fighter such as Moreno. ‘The Assassin Baby’ will be able to impose his will and eventually score a TKO of Erceg in the fourth or fifth round.

Petela: This might be the best case scenario for Brandon Moreno. It can’t be easy for a former champion to get and stay motivated for non-title fights after losing his belt. Fortunately for Moreno, he gets to take this fight in his home country, and the raucous fans will be able to buoy him a bit. The best Moreno has left will be on display this weekend.

Unfortunately for Moreno, the best he has left will not be enough. Moreno has been to the top of the mountain, and Erceg has not. In his lone shot at gold, Erceg came up short. That will be a motivating factor in this contest. There are plenty of ways to break down the X’s and O’s of this one, but I think it comes down to one fighter on the rise and one on a decline. The hunger of Erceg will outdo the fans’ ability to the desire of Moreno to impress the Mexican audience. 25 minutes of both guys in nearly perpetual motion will end with a lopsided decision win for Erceg.

Drew Dober has lost three of his last four fights; can the 36-year-old play spoiler and defeat Manuel Torres in his home country?

Petela: He cannot. Drew Dober is a very talented fighter, and, for better or worse, his technical skills are slightly outdone by his inability to be boring. He has a head like a Lego character, and he isn’t afraid to block punches with it to land one of his own.

Manuel Torres is a prospect looking to become a contender, and this fight with Dober is a great opportunity for him to take that leap. He is 30 years old, entering his physical prime, and will be a step faster than Dober this weekend. He will be able to avoid getting clipped or ragdolled to the ground and make sure that Dober is forced to chase him around the cage as he picks him apart. This one will likely go the distance, and Dober will be credited for his toughness, while Torres and his superior technical skills earn a victory.

Sumian: Drew Dober does not get enough credit. This man is undeniably one of the most exciting lightweights in UFC history. Win, lose or draw, Dober always shows up and puts on a performance that is sure to be remembered. On the other hand, Manuel Torres is a tough prospect and has compiled a 3-1 record since joining the UFC. His latest Octagon appearance resulted in a TKO loss, courtesy of Ignaocio Bahamondes, who might just be the most intriguing prospect at lightweight. Despite this, Torres is a proven finisher and is certainly capable of finishing the fight both on the feet or ground.

This is going to be a wild fight from start to finish, but I favor Torres for obvious reasons. Dober is simply too chaotic and messy, which is also why he is so loved. He will be more than happy to engage in an all-out brawl with Torres and eventually get caught. Torres by first-round TKO.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Vince Morales. The 34-year-old is on a two-fight losing streak since coming back to the UFC and is undoubtedly on the chopping block. Unfortunately for him, his next task is taking on Raul Rosas Jr. This is a matchup Morales is expected to lose, and his job is to serve as a stepping stone for Rosas Jr. He will be finished and, unfortunately, be served his packing papers.

Petela: I’ll go with Vinc Pichel. He has been in the UFC for over a decade, and is nearing the close of a fan-friendly career. He has dropped two in a row and hasn’t won by stoppage since 2017. A loss for the 42-year-old is likely the end of the road.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Do you remember that boring Loopy Godinez fight? Me neither. She’s just an entertainer, plain and simple. Her showdown with Julia Polastri will be fun. Polastri just picked up her first UFC win and will be looking to make a statement by taking out a veteran like Godinez. This will steal the show early on and have the Mexican fans on their feet.

Sumian: I am not sure if I would call it the sleeper, but the middleweight matchup between Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer should be the co-main event of this card. It is the second-best matchup of the evening and features a terrific veteran-versus-prospect matchup. This is a very important bout for both fighters.

Gastelum is only 33 years old, but he has been competing in the UFC since 2013. To stick around, he needs to be able to take out up-and-comers to secure his spot on the roster. On the other hand, Pyfer is a wrecking machine and is capable of knocking out anyone at middleweight. His lack of experience showed when he took on Jack Hermansson back in Feb. 2024. He has the chance to, once again, face a well-established veteran and move onto the next step.

This fight is going to be really fun in my opinion. Pyfer is going to bring the dog out of Gastelum, which we have not seen in some time. I expect this to go back and forth and end in an entertaining split decision victory for Pyfer.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Raul Rosas Jr. This is a perfect matchup for him to showcase his skills and wrap up a dominant submission victory. He still has a lot of developing to do, but the UFC must continue to match him appropriately before moving into the next tier of 135 pounds.

Petela: Joe Pyfer. His fight with Kelvin Gastelum is going to be a one-way beating. Pyfer is getting better each time he fights, and there is perhaps no better poster child for not living up to potential than Kelvin Gastelum. He had an incredible fight against Israel Adesanya when the pair fought for the interim middleweight title back at UFC 236. Since that fight, he has been lackluster and has consistently struggled with weight management. Pyfer is going to just absolutely steamroll Gastelum, put on a ground-and-pound beating for the ages and earn himself an extra $50,000.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Boneless wings. Okay, maybe it isn’t the most traditional dish you’d expect for a card that is set up to showcase Mexican talent, but nobody can argue that boneless wings are fantastic, and they make less of a mess than wings with the bone. Just like the card at the Sphere, this event will be great, but it won’t have all the technical mess that the Sphere card had, and fans will be able to solely focus on the fights.

Sumian: This fight night is taking place in Mexico City and has a favorable start time of 1 p.m. PT. As a result, I will be heading to my local Vallarta market and purchasing steak, chicken and shrimp for an afternoon taco-and-quesadilla cook-off. This is the perfect card to jump back and forth between cooking and watching. Do not forget the salsa.