UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 Preview and Predictions

The new year is upon us and all of a sudden the UFC returns. Flying under the radar with UFC 311 next week, the first event of the year takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas with a rematch in the women’s strawweight division sitting atop the fight card.

The first time Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas met, Ribas won a unanimous decision. Both women have gone on to have significant wins and losses since that contest in 2019. Dern will look to exact revenge this time around and reinsert herself to the title picture by scoring back-to-back wins for the first time since 2021. Ribas too will look to reignite the flame for a run at the title as she has alternated wins and losses over her last seven fights.

The co-main event is a welterweight contest between two grizzled veterans. Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris both come into this fight on the heels of a loss, with Ponzinibbio having lost two in a row. Neither one of these two has title aspirations in the short time they have left as professional fighters but they both maintain the ability to score a finish and earn a $50,000 bonus in an instant.

The event airs live on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET. Combat Press writer Matt Petela previews the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Amanda Ribas handed Mackenzie Dern her first professional loss; can the world champion grappler extract revenge this weekend?

Petela: Not too long ago, I thought either of these women could have a long reign as UFC champion. The first time they met Dern was a household name and Ribas scored a breakthrough victory. Ribas was able to avoid danger on the ground and dominate when the pair were standing. Evolved isn’t the best way to describe Dern’s progression because while she has gotten better on her feet she finds herself in more danger because her defense is so porous as she tries to close distance and get the fight into the grappling realm. This fight plays out similarly to the first encounter, albeit a slightly more refined fight as both women are more mature and well rounded. Ribas scores a knockout this time around and moves to 2-0 in the series.

Santiago Ponzinibbio has lost five of his last seven fights; does the 38 year old Argentinian fighter have enough left to defeat Carlston Harris?

Petela: Doubtful. I thought his most recent fight would be his last professional outing, especially after dropping a decision to fellow aging veteran Muslim Salikhov. Carlston Harris is no spring chicken either, 37 years old in his own right. However, as of late it looks to me as if Harris has remained at or near his peak level whereas Ponzinibbio has dropped off significantly. If they met in their primes, I would pick Ponzinibbio without question but with his decline in speed and ability to pull the trigger I don’t think he is able to get the job done in the co-main event.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Petela: Chris Curtis. He retired once and had a resurgence but he is struggling once again and I don’t see a third career surge in his future. His last memorable win came over two years ago against Joaquin Buckley, which definitely aged well, but at 37 years old and with 42 fights under his belt the end is near. Even if he does win, Roman Kopylov is hard to look good against and it is a fight that could push him into retirement even if the UFC doesn’t explicitly part ways with the “Action Man.”

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cesar Almeida. This one has “don’t blink” written all over it. These guys both hit like trucks and don’t always do the best job of keeping themselves out of danger. Bet the under on this one, no matter where it is set come fight time.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Petela: Punahele Soriano. He is a knockout artist, plain and simple. He has lost two of his last three but did win his most recent outing by decision. He is due for a standout performance and he will have a willing dance partner in fellow knockout Uros Medic. This one doesn’t go the distance and Soriano gets an emphatic knockout.

Pair this card with…

Petela: A pre-made charcuterie board and Doritos. This card snuck up on a lot of people and plans to watch the fight may not have been made. Therefore, throw something together last minute that won’t cause a lot of stress but is also delicious.