UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Preview and Predictions

The UFC heads back to the Middle East this weekend as the Etihad Arena plays host to a featherweight championship fight between an incumbent champion and a legendary former champion.

Ilia Topuria has stormed through the featherweight division on his way to becoming champion. He absolutely dominated a very talented Bryce Mitchell, soundly defeated Josh Emmett, and then needed less than two rounds to knockout Alexander Volkanovski to claim the belt. This weekend’s task is a horse of a different color, going up against a longtime former champion and current owner of the BMF belt. Other than the aforementioned Volkanovski, Holloway hasn’t tasted defeat at featherweight since 2013 when he met a pre-cocaine Conor McGregor. Riding high on the heels of a stunning last second knockout over Justin Gaethje, Holloway is poised to regain the belt he once held.

The co-main event pits two middleweight contenders against one another in a rescheduled fight. Former champion Robert Whittaker takes on Chechen destroyer Khamzat Chimaev. After failing miserably to make weight for his scheduled fight with Nate Diaz, Chimaev has made the permanent move to middleweight. He defeated Kamaru Usman in his last fight, a contest that the former welterweight champion took on short notice. A showdown with Whittaker will serve as a barometer for where Chimaev falls in the pecking order among middleweight contenders.

The UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway preliminary card airs live on ESPN+ starting at 10 a.m. ET, followed by the main card on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 2 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

Ilia Topuria has steamrolled his way through the featherweight division; can he remain champion by defeating the legendary Max Holloway?

Sumian: Every now and then, a fight comes around that truly gets fans and the MMA community excited beyond belief. This is that fight. Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway are on top of the MMA world at the moment and it is hard to dream up a better headline for this upcoming UFC PPV on Saturday. Topuria is undefeated, violent, outspoken, and has all the makings of a star that is ready to pop and take over the UFC. On the other hand, Max Holloway continues to prove that he will simply not go away and is the one of the best fighters to have ever stepped foot inside the octagon. On Saturday night, we will find out which one of these two powerful forces will be able to end this building rivalry and solidify themselves as the best featherweight on the planet.

Ever since his second UFC fight against Damon Jackson, it was obvious that Topuria was something special. El Matador has proven time after time that he has some of the best vicious hands in the sport and is capable of dominating and finishing any opponent put in front of him. He followed up his win over Jackson with impressive wins over Ryan Hall, Jai Herbert, Bryce Mitchell, and Josh Emmett. Yes, Topuria did face some adversity in the Herbert but it is also important to point out that the bout took place at lightweight and not featherweight. After dominating Emmett for five rounds, he finally earned his title shot against one of the best UFC champions of all time in Alexander Volkanovski. Volk certainly came into that fight ready to trade with Topuria and ended up paying for it in round two. The MMA community could not help but wonder if this victory was due to Topuria’s prowess or Volk’s wear and tear after such a dominant championship run. Nevertheless, Topuria became champion and a new reign began.

For Topuria, everything is at stake on Saturday night. He has talked the talk and is certainly no stranger to controversy. However, fans will certainly be tuning in whether it is to see him shine or suffer a defeat at the hands of former featherweight champion Max Holloway. A win over Holloway will firmly establish Topuria as the best featherweight of all time and the opportunities to continuously build his stardom will be endless.

Suffering three defeats to the same opponent is a difficult thing to swallow. This would generally demotivate even the best fighters, but Max Holloway is truly something special. After suffering a third loss to Volk, he has come back even stronger and defeated Arnold Allen, Jung Chan-Sung, and most recently Justin Gaethje all in impressive fashion. The former champion’s win over Gaethje at UFC 300 will certainly go down as one of the most memorable and impressive feats in UFC history. The Hawaii native will now have a chance to claim UFC gold and become a two-time featherweight champion in one of the sport’s more competitive divisions. For Holloway, this fight is all about legacy and defeating Topuria to capture the belt will solidify his place as one of the top ten greatest UFC fighters of all time no matter what happens after.

It may sound silly, but this fight reminds me of the game Tekken. Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway are the true embodiment of Kazuya Mishimia and Jin Kazama. Both these characters are unstoppable forces that the Tekken world revolves around and their battles shake the very core of the game and its other characters. This fight is big, and the winner gets even bigger. Topuria would love nothing more than to be the first person to stop Max Holloway by knockout. To do so, he will need to be smart about his boxing and pick his shots wisely. Throwing wild overhand rights and looping left hooks will leave him susceptible to Holloway’s volume counter striking and reaction speed. Most people are speculating that his best chance to beat the former champion is to end this fight early. If he can do so, then that would only make a win over Holloway impressive. However, the champion will need to be prepared to go into the later rounds and stay fresh given that Max has far more experience in title fights than Topuria does. For Holloway, the game plan is simple. He will need to continuously be on the move and fire off volume combinations whenever an opportunity presents itself. Circling away from Topuria’s power right will be key to avoiding unnecessary damage and not feeling the power of the champion.

This one is as tough as they come in regards to picking a winner. Both fighters are equally impressive, durable, and exciting to watch. As much as I believe in Topuria, my heart and soul tells me that Holloway is going to win a hard fought decision victory and recapture the belt. He will take some damage along the way but will do enough to win three rounds and become the UFC featherweight champion once again.

Petela: Andrew is right about one thing, comparing this fight to a video game is silly. I was never one of those type of dorks so any comparison he made might as well have been written in Sanskrit.

I guess he is right about two things because this fight is one for the ages between generational talents. I’m also going to sound absolutely crazy with this prediction because there is zero tape to back up my claim. Ilia Topuria is going to absolutely steamroll Max Holloway. He just simply hits too hard for Holloway to deal with at featherweight. When Roy Jones moved up to heavyweight and defeated John Ruiz for the heavyweight championship, moving back down to light heavyweight for the rematch with Antonio Tarver was an absolutely abysmal decision. He got his chin checked really quickly and that major weight fluctuation was terribly detrimental. I think that the same thing happens to Holloway. He took some shots from Justin Gaethje, one of the hardest hitting lightweights, so I understand why everyone reading this would be skeptical of my prediction that he can’t handle the heat from Topuria. It is the move back down to featherweight, combined with the thunderous power of Topuria that will be the downfall of Max Holloway this weekend.

Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev are scheduled to square off in the co-main event; does this fight actually occur this time and if so how does it unfold?

Petela: I hopped off the Khamzat Chimaev hype train after his fight with Kamaru Usman. He hasn’t fought anyone elite at middleweight, that is a legitimate middleweight, and his gas tank looked average at best in that outing. He is always injured or ill, can only fight in certain countries because of his ties to a warlord, and his trash talk consistently misses the mark. He is MMA’s version of the best that never was, though probably not even worthy of a documentary.

Robert Whittaker isn’t done quite yet. He may have faltered against current champion Dricus Du Plessis but he is still an elite fighter with impeccable takedown defense. Going back to his fights with Yoel Romero, he showed the ability to remain standing with an Olympic silver medalist trying to take him off of his feet. I don’t think an undersized middleweight like Chimaev will be able to dictate where this fight takes place and if that is the case, well he is screwed. Whittaker will bounce around the outside, sticking his jab in the face of Chimaev and landing perfectly timed power punches like a cartoon Kangaroo peppering an unsuspecting opponent. Technical striking 101 gets taught by Whittaker this weekend and Chimaev will be a frustrated student.

Sumian: I am in absolute agreement with my colleague on this one. I am absolutely excited for this middleweight thriller and believe this is perfect matchmaking. For Chimaev, defeating Whittaker will certainly put him next in line for a title shot. For Whittaker, handing Chimaev his first defeat will only raise his stock and make him the top contender for middleweight in 2025.

The biggest issue I have with Chimaev is we simply have not seen enough in the last several years. Injuries and illnesses have kept it out of competition and the hype train has slowly but surely started to decline. We know he has the talent and capability of being a threat to the middleweight throne but this also requires consistency inside the octagon which has been his biggest issue. If Chimaev is truly healthy and ready for a top competitor like Whittaker, we could be in for a wild fight and a potential Chimaev victory.

On the other hand, Whittaker is as consistent and game as they come. Yes, he has suffered some setbacks against top tier competition throughout his career but he is continuously proven that he is one of the top three best middleweights in the world. Whittaker is one of the most well rounded and tactical fighters on the UFC roster and will certainly use this to his advantage against a wrecking ball like Chimaev.

This one is going to be unpredictable given there are so many questions. Is Chimaev truly healthy? Is Whittaker still capable of a title run? Will Chimaev be able to take Whittaker down and hold him there? All these questions will be answered come Saturday. In regards to prediction, it is difficult to against Whittaker. He is the more experienced, well-rounded, and tactful fighter at this point in time and will be able to win a 29-28 decision over Chimaev.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 308?

Sumian: Max Holloway would be the obvious answer for me, but let’s change it up. I will instead go with Geoff Neal. Neal is in desperate need of a win and Dos Anjos is a perfect opponent for that opportunity. Neal is more powerful and certainly the fresher fighter at this point in time. He will be able to finish Dos Anjos by TKO and earn a much needed victory to stay relevant in the welterweight division.

Petela: Alex Pereira. Realistically, the only light heavyweight fighter who has a legitimate claim at the next title shot is Magomed Ankalaev. Once he falls prey to Aleksandar Rakic, the division will be devoid of contenders and that will open up the opportunity for Pereira to move up to heavyweight. Playing it forward, I think Stipe Miocic shocks people and beats Jon Jones and the pair will both retire. Boom, Tom Aspinall vs. Alex Pereira for the undisputed heavyweight championship in early 2025.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 308?

Petela: Shara Magomedov. He gets exposed as a fraud this weekend by Armen Petrosyan. After a couple fights in the UFC, it is abundantly clear that he is all hat and no cattle. He looks intimidating and it is impressive how he can fight at all with such limited vision but he has been up against clearly overmatched opponents thus far in his promotional run. A decent middleweight like Petrosyan will dominate “Shara Bullet” and the gimic will end with a whimper rather than a roar.

Sumian: Aleksandar Rakic. This fight somewhat baffles me. Ankalaev has already proven he is the second best light heavyweight in the world in my eyes. A win over Rakic does little for his claim to a title shot. Rakic is on a two fight losing streak and a third loss will surely throw him out of any potential title contention for some time.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Khamzat Chimaev, but not in terms of being cut. However, suffering a loss on Saturday after the drama surrounding him is going to significantly derail his career. Chimaev was once slated as the best prospect in recent UFC history and it has certainly not been the case in the last several years. A convincing loss to Whittaker will likely end the ‘Borz’ hype train for the foreseeable future.

Petela: Kennedy Nzechukwu. He has dropped two fights in a row and is making the last ditch career move that many struggling fighters have made in the past; he’s moving up to heavyweight. If he falters against Chris Barnett, it might be time for him to finish out his career knocking skulls on the regional scene.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Carlos Leal. Outside of the title fight, I am most excited about this contest.

Sumian: Lerone Murphy and Dan Ige is one of the most fun fights on this card. Both combatants are game fighters and capable of exciting, yet impressive performances. I expect this fight to be a war from start to finish.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Magomed Ankalaev. After being shunned by the UFC for the last year and a half, Ankalaev is on a mission to prove otherwise. He will dominate Rakic and earn a TKO victory via ground and pound and earn himself a much deserve bonus.

Petela: Bruno Silva. I know he should probably be talked about as a fighter whose career is on the line but his last loss had to leave a bad taste in his mouth. It may have taken him a few weeks to review the footage since he did get poked in the eyes a ton, but once he did I’m sure he was eager to get back into the cage and right the ship. He takes out all of that pent up aggression on Ismail Naurdiev this weekend and opens the show with a memorable knockout.

Pair this card with…

Petela: An eye exam. You are going to want to have 20/20 vision to witness something this beautiful. Fortunately, my eyesight is perfect, but, for those of you who aren’t as lucky as I am, it might be a good idea to get a quick vision screening done before this fight card to see two absolute masters of mixed martial arts go at it for 25 minutes.

Sumian: Mortal Kombat. If there is any card worth comparing to a fighting game, it’s this one. It features some of the most prolific names in MMA today and there will be plenty of action from start to finish. “Finish him!”