UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Preview and Predictions

Back in Salt Lake City, the scene of multiple memorable knockouts, the UFC puts on a Pay-Per-View event that is sure to culminate in fireworks. The sport’s most feared striker, Alex Pereira, puts his title on the line against a surging Khalil Rountree. Pereira easily dispatched Jiri Prochazka in the pair’s rematch the last time he fought and will look to do the same against Rountree, who comes into the showdown with a five-fight winning streak.

The co-main event will also have a belt on the line as Raquel Pennington defends her bantamweight title against former champion Juliana Pena. The two women are quite familiar with each other, as each of them were on team Tate under the tutelage of Meisha Tate on The Ultimate Fighter.

Also on the main card is former featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo as he looks to win two consecutive fights since ending his short-lived retirement. Standing in his way is Mario Bautista, a Nevada native who brings a six-fight winning streak with him into this showdown.

The next women’s bantamweight title contender might just be on this main card as well as former PFL champion Kayla Harrison makes her sophomore appearance under the UFC banner, easily dispatching Holly Holm in her debut. Ketlen Vieira will try and upset for Olympic Gold Medalist in Judo and put herself in title contention.

The UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree early prelims and preliminary card air live on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the main card live on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

Alex Pereira has been a destroyer at light heavyweight; does Khalil Rountree offer any resistance to the marauding Brazilian?

Sumian: It is hard to see Alex Pereira losing a match that will ultimately come down to striking more anything. That being said, Rountree is a formidable opponent and is widely known as the Glory killer. Rountree having a chance to upset Pereira and him being able to execute that notion are two entirely different things.

Alex Pereira is the exact type of star and company man that the UFC was hoping to find. He is active, dominant, entertaining and drama free. Pereira shows up to fight without any hesitation and has undoubtedly given the MMA community some of the most memorable moments inside the octagon for the last several years. The Brazilian is a dominant kickboxer and is capable of knocking out any fighter currently active on the UFC roster, heavyweight included. The champion is currently riding a four fight win streak and continues to impress every single time he steps in the octagon. The biggest concern with Pereira is that he is 37 years old and father time will undoubtedly catch up sooner rather than later. That being said, the champ should be able to deliver several more times before calling it a career.

Khalil Rountree hits hard, plain and simple. He is a formidable Muay Thai practitioner and has recorded nine knockouts throughout his MMA career. He is currently riding a five fight win streak and most recently defeated Anthony Smith with relatively ease by way of third round knockout. Despite Anthony Smith being well out of his prime, Rountree’s confidence and finishing nature continues to impress and he will certainly be willing and able to trade with the champion for as long as this fight lasts.

This fight will not go to the scorecards, regardless of who wins. The champion’s path to victory will ultimately involve staying away from Rountree’s power, firing off leg kicks, and waiting for the right opportunity to land his vicious left hook or head kick. Pereira should be more than willing to let Rountree tire himself out and eventually find an opening to end the evening with a bang. For the challenger, it is quite the opposite. Rountree must not let Pereira find his rhythm and look to end this fight early utilizing his blunt power. I really want to believe that Rountree has the ability to upset here, but it is just way too difficult to pick against the champion in a kickboxing match. The Brazilian is taller, sharper, and significantly more disciplined when it comes to striking. Pereira will let Rountree overexert in round one and two before landing a well placed counter in round three. He will defend his belt for a third straight time and likely find himself facing Magomed Ankalaev in his next outing.

Petela: This fight is a no-brainer. Alex Pereira is going to absolutely pummel Khalil Rountree and make it look easy. He will keep his jab in the face of Rountree and easily thwart any attempts to close the distance and change levels until an opening presents itself and he lands a thunderous left hook that leaves Rountree seeing stars like a cartoon character that has an anvil land on his head. Unless Pereira is forced to start a fight on his back he won’t lose his title as long as he competes. Before the end of the first round this fight will be over.

Raquel Pennington and Juliana Pena were teammates on The Ultimate Fighter, both coached by Miesha Tate; which one of the retired champion’s pupils will leave with the belt?

Petela: Amanda Nunes left a vacuum atop the women’s bantamweight division. She is head and shoulders better than both of these two women, as she showcased in the beat down of Raquel Pennington and the dominant showing over Juliana Pena in the pair’s rematch.

Pennington’s best attribute is her toughness. While that is admirable, it doesn’t bode well for her long term physical wellbeing. She takes a ton of damage and keeps moving forward. It might cause some musculoskeletal and brain issues down the road but it will be the right plan to keep her championship. She will force this fight into the clinch and just grind away, draining Peña’s gas tank. The pair will exchange a plethora or strikes in dirty boxing range and while it likely won’t be the most fan-friendly affair it will be competitive throughout. When it is all said and done, Pennington will have done the better work and will get her hand raised and hold onto the belt.

Sumian: I agree with my colleague’s assessment. Despite Pena’s toughness, she is very sloppy and awkward. Nothing she does looks clean or concise which is a direct counter to Pennington. Pennington may not be the most exciting fighter in the women’s bantamweight division but she certainly has the tools to defeat Pena and defend her title. Pennington by unanimous decision.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 307?

Sumian: Kayla Harrison. She will defeat Ketlen Vieira convincingly and be next in line for the UFC bantamweight title. Harrison will go on to defeat the winner of Pennington and Pena and likely establish a dominant yet entertaining title run.

Petela: Alex Pereira. He is at the point where the UFC is putting people in front of him that they know are going to get clobbered. A dominant win over Rountree will strengthen his claim that he should get a heavyweight title shot and potentially become the first ever three division champion.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 307?

Petela: Khalil Rountree. He is going to end up being a footnote in the Alex Pereira story. Even in the buildup to this fight commentary has been around how Pereira stays busy as a champion. This is the quintessential stay busy fight for a dominant champion and Rountree’s impressive run will be overshadowed and come to a devastating end.

Sumian: Joaquin Buckley. I expect Stephen Thompson to outpoint Buckley and win a unanimous decision. This will severely derail Buckely’s welterweight aspirations despite an impressive four fight win streak.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Ryan Spann desperately needs a win at UFC 307 to stick around. He is currently on a three fight losing streak and has easily established himself as one of the more disappointing prospects at light heavyweight. A win over OSP should more than doable but it is difficult to be confident with Spann given his performances over the last several years.

Petela: Tecia Pennington. She has not won a fight since 2021. Granted, she took some time off to have a baby and didn’t fight at all in 2023 but if she drops three in a row over a 3+ year stretch it would not be a surprise if she loses her spot on the roster.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: The opening fight of the night. Tim Means vs. Court McGee has fireworks written all over it. Both of these guys are past their primes but they are both still very dangerous. This one is going to be a dogfight. Expect Means to land a hellacious elbow in the latter portion of the fight that gets him a knockout win after an absolute war.

Sumian: Austin Hubbard versus Alexander Hernandez should be a fun one. Neither guy is really fighting for anything so both combatants should leave every inside the octagon come fight night.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Alex Pereira. He will earn his sixth performance of the night bonus upon finishing Rountree and unarguably establish himself as the most reliable and well liked champion on the UFC roster.

Petela: I have had a hard time with this one, so I’ll go in a different direction and say that neither fighter in the co-main event will leave with a post-fight bonus. It will be a close fight but it will be five rounds of clinch fighting without any “holy cow” moments.

Pair this card with…

Petela: The night is going to belong to Alex Pereira and his team. One of the most entertaining things about Pereira is his friendship with former champion Glover Teixeira; the pair could star in a buddy cop movie without a doubt. So sit back and relax as you enjoy this card with your best bud and discuss how the two of you could have been UFC champions if you were given the right set of circumstances. That’s what I’ll be doing at least.

Sumian: Man cave watch party. This card rules, plain and simple. It is the perfect event to get a group of friends together and watch a night of fights in the man cave. The top seven fights are all fireworks and this card should deliver a plethora of fun for both hardcore and casual fans.