UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba Preview and Predictions

It is back to the UFC Apex this weekend as the promotion puts together another show with a sparse audience inside their home facility. Sitting atop the fight card is a women’s strawweight fight between Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba. Lemos rebounded nicely from her title loss by defeating Mackenzie Dern via unanimous decision back in February. This weekend she will try to halt the three-fight winning streak of Jandiroba, whose last loss came back in 2021 against fellow contender Amanda Ribas. All three of Jandrioba’s wins on her current streak have come via unanimous decision.

The co-main event pits Hawaiian standout Brad Tavares against “The Iron Turtle” Jun Yong Park. Tavares has not fared well as of late, losing three of his last four fights. Park had a four-fight winning streak snapped in December 2023 when he came up short against Andre Muniz. Both men will be looking to regain some momentum and try to make one last surge in the middleweight division before their respective careers come to a close. Tavares is closer to 40 than 30 at 36 years old while Park is three years younger. A win in this matchup could likely determine the trajectory of both men’s remaining future inside the UFC.

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba airs live in its entirety on ESPN+ starting at 5 p.m. ET. The preliminary card also airs on ESPN2 at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba are both ranked inside the top five at strawweight; which woman earns the victory and does it propel her into a title shot?

Sumian: Many people will look at this main event and glance over it. However, I am here to tell you that Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba is certainly an event to tune into. Both of these women are top-ranked combatants in the women’s strawweight division and have had several performances that have propelled them into the top tier rankings at strawweight. The questions as always, who will take the next step?

Virna Jandiroba is as consistent as they come. The Brazil native is currently riding a three fight win streak and has only lost to top ten strawweights in her UFC career. Jandiroba’s strength is her grappling which has translated into 13 wins by submission and 6 wins by decision by utilizing her top tier grappling ability to control and outpace her opponents. She has defeated the likes of Angela Hill, Marina Rodriguez, and Loop Godinez in her UFC career and has continuously improved throughout her time in the UFC. If she is able to defeat the hard hitting Amanda Lemos, Jandiroba could be one fight away from a title shot.

Amanda Lemos hits like a truck, plain and simple. Eight of her fourteen wins come by way of knockout and she is without a doubt one of the more exciting strawweights to watch on the UFC roster. After losing to Zhang Weili back in 2023, she bounced back with a decisive win over Mackenzie Dern at UFC 298. Despite her love for knocking opponents out, Lemos is also capable of utilizing her athleticism and strength to submit
her opponents if the opportunity presents itself. If she ever hopes of getting back to a title shot, a win over Jandiroba is a must.

This fight is going to be a tale of two very different game plans. Jandiroba is going to want to stay out of boxing range and look to take Lemos down as soon as the opportunity presents itself. On other hand, Lemos will want to keep this on the feet and make this a dog fight where she can find her range and eventually put hands on Jandiroba. Despite Jandiroba’s well roundedness, Lemos is going to hunt her down and eventually find a sequence of punches that stuns her Brazilian counterpart and get the finish. Lemos simply hits too hard and will find an opening that allows her to hurt Jandiroba and the fight in exciting fashion. Lemos by TKO within three rounds.

Petela: Both of these women are tremendously talented and can certainly compete with anyone in their weight class. However, I am just not intrigued by this fight at all. We have recently seen Amanda Lemos lose in her bid for the title so she has a long way back to the top in a crowded division. Even with a victory she won’t be next in line. I suppose that you could make a case for Virna Jandiroba to have earned a crack at the belt if she can rattle off four wins in a row but with all due respect to her previous competition they aren’t championship caliber fighters. This would be the biggest win for Jandiroba and I think she needs another victory before she is a rightful challenger.

In terms of the fight itself I think it will be a rather lackluster affair. Jandiroba is going to try and get the fight to the ground by any means necessary and Lemos will defend as if her consciousness depends on it. By the latter portions of the fight Jandiroba will be trying to pull guard and butt scooting towards Lemos without success. Lemos by boring decision. At least it won’t be in front of a capacity crowd so there won’t be overwhelming boos.

Brad Tavares has just one win in his last four fights and it came over an aging Chris Weidman; can the Hawaiian fighter get back on track and hand Jun Yong Park his second consecutive loss?

Petela: This fight should be fun. Brad Tavares is known for having tremendous takedown defense and Jun Yong Park does some of his best work in the grappling realm so the two styles should clash a bit. I don’t think that Park will be able to take Tavares down and therefore this fight will take place almost entirely on the feet.

When it comes to striking, both men are technically sound and have the power to close the show with a single punch. However, Tavares has not secured a knockout victory in six years. I see that unfortunate streak ending this weekend. Tavares has to be careful not to overcommit and find himself out of position and vulnerable to a big counter shot. It will be a big left hook that begins the end of the fight, with Tavares needing only one or two follow up shots to force the referee to stop the fight and give him a great deal more momentum as he heads into the final chapter of his career.

Sumian: Not sure why this fight is the co-main event when there are so many other compelling matchups on this card. Nevertheless, Brad Tavares is a well known name in the UFC but his best days are behind him. Park should be able to come away with a 29-28 decision victory over Tavares using his well roundedness and may even find an opening to lock up a craft submission. The once top 15 Tavares is 1-3 in his last four UFC appearances and is not long for the UFC if he is unable to get past Park. Park will use his abilities to edge out Tavares after a competitive yet clear decision victory.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Brian Kelleher is one fight away from being cut by the UFC. He is currently riding a three fight losing streak all by way of finish and a loss to Cody Gibson will seal the deal. I do favor Kelleher in this fight but his recent performances give me pause in his ability to come away with a win. Hopefully, the New York native can prove he still belongs finishing Gibson in exciting fashion.

Petela: Every fighter who gets thrown onto a card at the Apex in 2024 should know that the promotion doesn’t think all that highly of them. These are filler cards to meet contractual obligations with both fighters and the UFC. If your manager calls you and says you have a fight opportunity at the Apex it is almost as if the promotion is saying “do something special or go fight in the PFL with their smart cage that shows all the important statistics like punch speed.”

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: I am going out on a limb for this one and picking the heavyweight clash between Mohammed Usman and Thomas Petersen. When heavyweights throw down it could either be a total stinker or an absolute banger. This is a roll of the dice but I think Usman lands a haymaker and puts Petersen’s lights out early in a memorable outing.

Sumian: Steve Garcia versus Seung Woo Choi should be the co-main event of this card. These two combine for 18 knockouts and are no stranger to standing and banging. Expect this fight to be exciting while it lasts and eventually end in a knockout finish.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Amanda Lemos. It is simply a matter of time for her to find Jandiroba’s chin and she will do so within three rounds. Lemos is one of the hardest hitters in women’s MMA and will prove that she is still worthy a top strawweight ranking come Saturday.

Petela: Bill Algeo. He is going to submit Doo Ho Choi and get a much needed win. His showmanship combined with the performance will be enough to score him an extra $50K.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Space on your DVR. This fight card does nothing for me whatsoever. Sure it is worth watching if you don’t have anything going on but this is a great weekend to score points with your better half and take him or her out for a nice date and then catch the fights at a later date.

Sumian: Chips and dip. This fight card is not going to do well in regards to viewership given the little name value it has on paper. However, like chips and dip, once you start eating you can’t stop. This card is going to deliver a lot of finishes and once viewers tune in, they simply won’t be able to turn away as they realize how entertaining this fight card really is once it starts. This is a perfect way to get hyped for UFC 304 which is just around the corner.