UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 Preview and Predictions

Across the pond, we go. The UFC heads over to England for a pay-per-view chocked full of local and quasi-local fighters ready to make a splash in front of a friendly crowd. Headlining the card is a welterweight championship bout that pits Birmingham England’s Leon Edwards against Belal Muhammad. The two 170-pound standouts met once before but just seconds into round two the fight was halted after an incidental eye poke left Muhammad unable to continue. This time both men are looking to put an end to the other’s double-digit unbeaten streak.

The co-main event has a few things in common with the main event. It, too, features an English fighter, as Tom Aspinall will take on American wrestler Curtis Blaydes. A belt is also on the line, since Aspinall picked up an interim heavyweight title in his last outing, when he defeated Sergei Pavlovich in just over a minute back in Nov. 2023. The third thing it has in common with the main event is that it is a rematch. When Aspinall and Blaydes met back in 2022, it ended prematurely, and Blaydes was awarded a TKO victory after Aspinall succumbed to a gruesome knee injury. Both men look to leave with a definitive ending as well as the belt wrapped around their waist.

Brash lightweight Paddy Pimblett will also be featured on the main card as he takes on veteran contender Bobby Green. With both men having a flair for the dramatic in the cage, this fight is sure to provide plentiful entertainment regardless of how the fight plays out. Elsewhere on the main card is up and coming middleweight Christian Leroy Duncan who takes on Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues. Jerking the curtain on the main card is a featherweight showdown between exciting strikers Arnold Allen and Giga Chikadze. All in all, the promotion has put together a star-studded affair full of fighters throwing down close to home.

The UFC 304 early prelims air live on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

The first meeting between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad ended prematurely with an accidental eye poke; do we get a conclusive ending in this championship rematch?

Sumian: The main event of UFC 304 is a battle of two of the top 15 best fighters currently in MMA, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad. Both of these gentlemen have proven beyond doubt that they are elite competitors and have only gotten better with every Octagon performance. The first matchup was back in March of 2021. Since then, Leon Edwards has become a UFC welterweight champion and defended his belt twice. On the other hand, Belal Muhammad has compiled a 5-0 record since the eye poke and has undoubtedly proven himself as the number one contender at 170 pounds. This is as good as it gets when you are a hardcore MMA fan and should be at the top of MMA fans lists for must see welterweight matchups.

In many ways, Leon Edwards was exactly where Belal Muhammad is now. “Rocky” had proven himself as one of the best welterweight combatants in the world but was continuously passed on due to inability to finish fights and put on exciting performances. Eventually, the UFC gave in and put him up against Kamaru Usman where he shocked the world by defeating the former champion in an outstanding fashion. Since then, Edwards has defended his belt twice and is currently one of the top five best fighters in the world. He has consistently gotten better with every UFC appearance and gets a chance to defend the belt for a third time backed by a home crowd in Manchester, England.

MMA fans should feel for Belal Muhammad. This man has done everything you can ask for in the cage to deserve a title shot. Unfortunately for him, both the UFC and MMA fans just do not seem interested in him fighting for the title, let alone becoming the champion. His 5-0 streak since the accidental eye poke against Edwards includes dominant victories over Demian Maia, Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson, Sean Brady, and most recently Gilbert Burns. After a long road to the top and constant criticism, the number two ranked welterweight in the UFC finally gets a shot to prove to the world that he is undoubtedly the best welterweight in the world right now.

When it comes to high level MMA matchups, this is as good as it gets and will be a story of two very different game plans. For Edwards, the path to victory is fairly straightforward. He will look to keep Muhammad at a distance, fire off jabs and leg kicks, and utilize his defensive wrestling to separate in clinches and avoid going to the ground. For Muhamad, the game plan is to close the distance and make this a dog fight where he can utilize his clinch fighting and eventually get Edwards to the mat and control him from the top. This is one of the more difficult matchups to predict, but in the end the champion will retain his belt. Leon Edwards is elite, both offensively and defensively. He may not be the most exciting champion to watch, but he knows precisely how to win difficult matchups and implement his game plan to perfection. He will be able to negate the pressure of Muhammad and fire off enough offense to win a 49-46 unanimous decision in front of a hometown crowd.

Petela: I can’t disagree with Andrew that both of these men have earned their place among the best fighters in the world but this fight is going to be less than thrilling. Outside of his Hail Mary head-kick victory over Kamaru Usman, name the last Leon Edwards fight that was memorable. I’ll wait. Now do the same for Belal Muhammad. If you haven’t fallen asleep yet thinking about some of their recent fights, now try thinking about these two insanely technical fighters facing off against one another.

This one goes the distance, and Edwards probably jabs his way to a forgettable decision victory while defending Muhammad’s takedown attempts. This fight card is going to be great, but it ends with a whimper.

The co-main event is also a rematch of an injury shortened fight; does Tom Aspinall retain his interim title and exact revenge on Curtis Blaydes?

Petela: The heavyweight division can best be described in one word: silly. There is no reason that Jon Jones should be fighting Stipe Miocic. The current champion is under scrutiny yet again for his run-ins with law enforcement, and Miocic hasn’t fought in what feels like a decade since being knocked out by Francis Ngannou when they rematched. If Jones is hell-bent on fighting Miocic he should relinquish the title, fight with just their legacies on the line, and then have both of them ride off into the sunset.

All that being said, this co-main event is quite intriguing. Tom Aspinall is one of the most complete mixed martial artists to ever compete in the heavyweight division, and Blaydes is one of the best wrestlers the division has ever seen. Normally, when heavyweights rely on takedowns to implement their gameplan it’s body locks against the cage or by forcing a lumbering opponent off-balance and using momentum to get them to the canvas. That isn’t the case with Blaydes. He can run through most opponents with a blast double, and if he faces resistance, he can chain takedown attempts together with the finesse of a much lighter man. I don’t think Blaydes will struggle to get Aspinall down, but he may have a hard time keeping him there. As the commentary team is often quick to point out, the most exhausting part of a fight is offensive wrestling. I suspect Blaydes will tire himself out trying to keep Aspinall on his back, and once the championship rounds commence, he will be the far more exhausted fighter and will eat a monstrous uppercut from Aspinall, as he shoots a desperation takedown that isn’t properly executed. This one ends similarly to how Blaydes’ fight with Derrick Lewis ended, but it will happen later in the fight, and the first few rounds will be quite competitive.

Sumian: It is crazy just how unlucky Curtis Bladyes has been throughout his UFC career. Every time he is one fight away from a title shot, he finds a way to get knocked out and fall down the ladder. This time, he is fighting for the interim heavyweight championship and he will finally get his crack at UFC gold. Unfortunately for him, the man holding the UFC interim belt is the best heavyweight on the planet. Tom Aspinall is the new era of MMA heavyweights and one of the most exciting and charismatic champions on the UFC roster. He has the wrestling, striking, knockout power, anything else required to defend the belt and eventually becoming the undisputed heavyweight champion.

As my colleague stated, this will definitely go past the first round as long as we don’t see another freak injury. Both combatants will look to exchange early and often. However, the difference will be Aspinall’s knockout power and he will eventually land a brilliant 1-2 combo that will seal the deal. Blayde’s will certainly have his moments throughout this fight but will once again fall short.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 304?

Sumian: The Manchester fans. They will witness one of the best main cards of the year and we will see several exciting matchups and finishes throughout the evening. Both belt holders will defend their belts and the crowd will be roaring with excitement and cheers.

Petela: Christian Leroy Duncan. He will get a big win over a recognizable name in Gregory Rodrigues and do so in front of a raucous crowd. That will resonate with fans worldwide, and it will also resonate with the UFC executives. This win propels him forward into more exciting showdowns with guys closer to the top of the middleweight division than the bottom.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 304?

Petela: Paddy Pimblett. The hype train has slowly been veering off course recently, and Bobby Green will stop it in its tracks. Pimblett is a decent fighter, but not nearly as talented as the buzz around him would have you believe. He gets flattened this weekend in front of a home crowd, and his pride will have a bigger bruise than his face when this showdown is said and done.

Sumian: Belal Muhammad. This will be the end of any talk for Muhammad fighting for the title in the future. It is clear the UFC and MMA fans are not behind him, but a title shot was simply undeniable at this point in time. He will come up short to Edwards and be out of the title picture for the remainder of his career.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Paddy Pimblett, hear me out. Pimblett has made it clear he intends to test free agency after this fight. I believe his plan is to beat Green in impressive fashion and negotiate himself a fat raise. However, if this does not go as planned his appeal to both the UFC and MMA fans will significantly fall, and he will get nothing close to the deal he is looking for. Pimblett could find himself in a new home, if he is unable to get past Green and secure himself the payday he is hoping to get.

Petela: Molly McCann. Sure, she picked up a nice win in her last outing, but she simply isn’t an elite fighter. She is fun at times, but the gimmick outweighs her talent, and eventually that will run out. A loss in front of a home crowd could spell disaster for “Meatball.”

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Mohammed Mokaev vs. Manel Kape. I’m very high on Mokaev. This will be a great test for him against an experienced and exciting fighter in Kape. These two flyweights will dazzle the crowd and Mokaev will score a late finish that gets the English crowd on their feet.

Sumian: My colleague’s answer is the only right answer. Mokaev and Kape is probably the most intriguing matchup in the entire card, given the tenacious style of both combatants. However, to keep things fresh, I will go with Arnold Allen and Giga Chikadze. These are two of the most elite strikers in the featherweight division and both are capable of putting their opponents in exciting fashion. These two will stand and bang for as long as the fight lasts, but I do expect someone to go down before three rounds.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Tom Aspinall. He will knock out Blaydes at some point between Round 2 and 3 and secure himself a nice $50,000 bonus. The biggest question will be who Aspinall will face next after he secures his first interim title defense.

Petela: Giga Chikadze. He won’t get a standing ovation when he floors Arnold Allen, but he will get an extra $50,000 after landing his patented “Giga kick” and crumbling Allen

Pair this card with…

Petela: It’s a cop out to say fish and chips, because it is in England, but after looking at a copious amount of English food dishes, I can’t think of any other palatable local cuisine. I have no idea how anyone eats enough food in England to fill out a heavyweight frame. Thinking a little outside the box here, I’ll say pair this card with a morning trip to your local farmer’s market. Take your significant other with you, enjoy that quality time, and then you can dazzle her with your immense knowledge of the fight game while curled up on the couch watching the fight card.

Sumian: A hearty English breakfast in the morning to coat the several pints of beer that will follow throughout this event. As stated above, this card is sweet from top to bottom. There are many intriguing fights to tune in for and it will only get better as the evening progresses. Load up with a nice breakfast and prepare yourself for an evening of MMA action.