UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade Preview and Predictions

This Saturday, the UFC is back in action from their home base in Las Vegas with UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade. Headlining the fight card is a women’s strawweight fight between tenth-ranked Amanda Lemos and number-one ranked Jessica Andrade. Both women enter this fight on the heels of an impressive victory, with Lemos notching a split-decision victory over Angela Hill, while Andrade stopped Cynthia Calvillo with punches at the end of the first round of their Sept. 2021 contest.

The co-main event has been a game of musical chairs in the heavyweight division. Originally scheduled was a fight between Tanner Boser and Rodrigo Nascimento. Nascimento was forced out of action about a month prior to the contest, and he was replaced by Alexander Romanov. After that, Boser pulled out of the contest due to an injury, leaving Romanov potentially without an opponent. The UFC re-signed the previously released Chase Sherman, and now the fight will be Romanov vs. Sherman. Sherman looks to make the most of this third chance to fight inside the UFC against undefeated Moldovan brawler Romanov.

Also on the main card is a lightweight fight between longtime veteran Clay Guida and Claudio Puelles. The 40-year-old Guida regained his footing in his last fight with a submission win over Leonardo Santos, but he is just 2-3 over his last five fights. His opponent, Puelles, has won four straight contests since dropping his debut performance.

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade will air in its entirety on ESPN+ with the preliminary card starting at 6 p.m. ET, and the The main card following at 9 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

Amanda Lemos takes a huge step-up in competition when she faces former strawweight titleholder Jessica Andrade; does Lemos make it six straight wins by defeating the former champion?

Sumian: To put it bluntly, no. Lemos has certainly proven that she is no slouch in the women’s strawweight division. However, there are tiers in the fight game, and she is simply one tier down from where Andrade is even after compiling a 2-3 record in her last five bouts.

Lemos picked up a huge win back in Dec. 2021 when she defeated Angela Hill by split decision. Lemo’s performance was nowhere near a dominant showing that showed the world she is ready for the top eight of the loaded strawweight division. The Brazilian is on a nice run, and many of her wins have come at the expense of average to slightly above-average competition. If she is able to defeat Andrade, expect her to be thrown into a high-profile contender fight for her next Octagon appearance.

Andrade is as solid as they come. Despite a 2-3 record in her last five fights, she has only suffered losses to elite combatants such as Zhang Weili, Rose Namajunas, and Valentina Shevchenko. The Brazilian is one of the most devastating power punchers in MMA history, and has proven time after time that those who choose to stand with her power run the risk of suffering a thunderous knockout defeat.

This fight will favor Lemos the longer it goes. However, but Andrade will not give her that luxury. She will be able to put together a nice flurry in round two that stuns Lemos and leads to a TKO victory. Andrade is still an elite fighter that will defeat any up-and-coming contender with relative ease as long as she is able to utilize her terrifying power.

Petela: Much like last week’s main event, there are two ways that this fight plays out. One somewhat likely way this fight ends is with Andrade picking up an early knockout victory, as my colleague predicts will occur. The far more likely way this fight ends, in my opinion, is with Amanda Lemos picking up the biggest win of her career by unanimous decision.

Of the two women, Andrade is the more accomplished fighter, despite being four years younger than Lemos. Andrade is a former strawweight champion and flyweight title challenger, who, at 30 years old, is in the midst of her physical prime. Lemos is teetering on the edge of prospect and contender, but her window of opportunity to climb the ladder is relatively short, because she is already 34 years old.

Lemos has rattled off five straight wins since dropping her UFC debut to the always gritty Leslie Smith. She has picked up three stoppage wins – two by TKO and one by submission – to go along with two decision wins on that stretch, so favoring her to outlast Andrade over five rounds might not be a popular pick. However, the reason I’m confident in this pick is because of who she is fighting more than her record going into the contest.

Jessica Andrade is a powerhouse for sure, but she has only gone five rounds once in her career. That came in a lopsided defeat against Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Expect Lemos to start off slow, but pick up the pace as the fight goes on and win the last three rounds of the fight, getting more lopsided each round. This will be a big feather in her cap as she looks to earn her place at the top of the strawweight division and eventually earn a title shot.

The seemingly ageless Clay Guida makes another walk to the Octagon this weekend; does “The Carpenter” get a victory over Claudio Puelles and make it back-to-back victories?

Petela: I’m afraid this is a bridge too far for the 40-year-old Team Alpha Male fighter. His last performance was truly impressive and vintage Clay Guida, coming back from nearly being stopped to outlast his opponent and wind up getting a submission victory late in the fight. I just don’t see this fight against Claudio Puelles going the same way. Puelles has won his last four fights, two by decision and two by submission. Those two submissions came in the third round, so he will be well-prepared for a grueling pace against Guida. Furthermore, his grappling style will be a good foil to Guida’s pressure wrestling attack. This will be the most fan-friendly fight on the card, but expect it to be Puelles to get his hand raised when it is all said and done.

Sumian: My colleague is on point with his assessment. This is one opponent that will be a little too much for Guida to take out. The fight will be competitive from start to finish, but Puelles will ultimately pull off the unanimous-decision victory and earn one of the most high profile victories of his career. The 25-year-old prospect will certainly garner a following after Saturday.

Dean Barry — do we need to know this name?

Sumian: No, because Dean Barry has compiled a 4-1 record in professional MMA and has only fought once a year since 2017. Yes, because he is fighting someone that I imagine many people hope he defeats in Mike Jackson. Jackson is well-known for being defeated by Mickey Gall in his UFC debut and defeating Phil ‘CM Punk’ Brooks in his second octagon appearance. That victory was later overturned due to Jackson testing positive for marijuana. Jackson has not competed in professional MMA since 2018, so one can only ponder why he is fighting again at age 37. Jackson’s handling of the Brooks fight left a sour taste in not only Dana White’s mouth, but MMA fans as well. Thus, it is apparent that Barry is being given a lay-up fight here, in an effort to extend his knockout winning streak to four, sending Jackson packing. We don’t really know what Barry is capable of, but he certainly packs a punch.

Petela: I agree here, Dean Barry isn’t someone who will have a long career inside the UFC. His fight with Jackson is barely at the UFC level, so while he may pick up a win it won’t say much about his potential to climb the ranks at welterweight. This might be a fun fight in the sense that there is almost no defense on display but don’t expect anything long-term out of Barry.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Petela: Isaac Villanueva. He is just 1 – 4 inside the UFC, and all of those losses came by way of knockout. It very much seems like his fight with Tyson Pedro is a “loser walks” type of fight, as neither man has had much success recently. Unfortunately for Villanueva, this will be the final nail in his promotional coffin.

Sumian: It is hard to imagine that Philipe Lins is not in a must-win situation going into Saturday night. He has yet to claim his UFC victory after going 0-2 at heavyweight. Lins is moving to light heavyweight and will face Marcin Prachnio, who most recently defeated Khalil Rountree Jr.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Sumian:. If this card was headlined by Charles Jourdain and Lando Vannata, I would have no problem with it. Why? Because this fight is likely going to be the best fight of the evening by a wide margin. These two combine for 20 finishes and have rarely, if ever, been involved in a slow-paced or boring fight. The fireworks will come early and often once these two take center stage.

Petela: The fight I’m most excited about is Maycee Barber vs. Montana De La Rosa. These two flyweight prospects are on the verge of contender status, despite facing a few setbacks early on in their career. The women’s flyweight division is not overly stacked with talent, but that allows fighters to rebound quickly, and they don’t get shoved to the back of the line with one or two losses. Barber is just 1-2 over her last three fights, but got back on track with a win over Miranda Maverick in her last bout. De La Rosa is 2-1-1 over her last four, and, arguably, her most impressive performance was the draw against Mayra Bueno Silva where she had to overcome some serious early adversity. This should be a closely contested fight with Barber holding a slight advantage on the feet, and De La Rosa with a wrestling and grappling advantage. Expect Montana De La Rosa to pick up a unanimous-decision victory after all is said and done.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Petela: Tyson Pedro. The Australian fighter has not fared well recently, but in each of his fights, there are moments where his pure athleticism and raw power show up. He is more known for his ability to finish fights by submission, but it’s undeniable that Pedro sets up his submissions with his hands. Against someone who has shown to be susceptible to being knocked out like Isaac Villanueva, that will be all Pedro needs to finish the fight in emphatic fashion. This fight won’t make it out of the first round, and Tyson Pedro will get back on the right track in a big way.

Sumian: Dean Barry by first-round knockout. The UFC newcomer will finish a questionable opponent and send Mike Jackson packing. Barry’s potential as a UFC competitor is uncertain at best. However, he undoubtedly has the ability to finish Jackson in extraordinary fashion.

Pair this card with…

Sumian: There is no secret to what this card is trying to accomplish. Claudio Puelles, Alexander Romanov, Manel Kape, and Amanda Lemos are all potential contenders riding hot streaks. This card is positioned to showcase their talent against some veteran combatants. Those who are successful will find themselves entering a new tier and positioning themselves for more significant fights in their next octagon appearance. Thus, let’s go with the tagline, “Spoiler Alert!” More than one of these potential contenders will fall victim to a veteran this weekend. However, this should take little away from their future aspirations and rather be a learning experience that will only improve their fight game.

Petela: Miller Lite. This is about as run-of-the-mill as Fight Nights get, so pair it with a run-of-the-mill beer. This is an event for the so-called “hardcore” fans without a ton of name recognition. There are some exciting prospects to watch, and a few veterans who always deliver exciting performances, but overall, this card has nothing to wow the more casual fans and cause them to change their Saturday night plans in order to stay home and watch the event.