UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley Preview and Predictions

With a new champion recently crowned in Jack Della Maddalena, the welterweight division once again takes center stage this weekend as former dominant champion Kamaru Usman looks to get back to the glory days by beating a rising contender in Joaquin Buckley. Usman has struggled since losing the title to Leon Edwards. After that vicious head kick knockout, Usman lost the rematch and hasn’t been back to the championship level since that contest. He didn’t fight at all in 2024 and his last outing was at middleweight where he got largely manhandled by Khamzat Chimaev. He needs to find the previous version of himself to defeat Buckley. For his part, Buckley has been excelling as of late. Once a hated fighter who got kicked out of multiple gyms for his antics, Buckley has won six fights in a row, including two consecutive knockouts over former title challengers in Stephen Thompson and Colby Covington.

The co-main event is a women’s flyweight matchup between former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and contender Miranda Maverick. Namajunas enters the fight on the heels of a decision loss to Erin Blanchfield, which halted her efforts to secure a three fight winning streak. Maverick has won four in a row and is looking to put herself on the short list of potential title contenders by taking out a big name like Namajunas.

UFC Atlanta airs live on ESPN+ starting at 7 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Kamaru Usman has lost three in a row; does he have enough left to halt the momentum of Joaquin Buckley?

Sumian: Kamaru Usman has not won a UFC fight since Nov. 2021, and he has not competed in over a year and a half. Let that sink in for a second. Somehow, he is still ranked number-five in the UFC welterweight rankings and is facing a very determined Joaquin Buckley in his return to the cage.

There was a time where Usman was the boogeyman. He was an elite wrestler coupled with terrifying knockout power. It seemed like it was impossible to stop him until Leon Edwards pulled off one of the most shocking upsets in welterweight history. Since then, he has suffered two additional losses to Edwards and Khamzat Chimaev on short notice. At this point, it is hard to understand where he is physically given his known knee problems, age, and lack of competition in the last four years.

I think it is pretty clear that Usman is well beyond his prime and is never fighting for a championship again. The welterweight division is littered with up–and-coming talent, and it would take at least two very impressive performances for him to be able to jump ahead of fighters such as Sean Brady, Shavkat Rakhmonov, and Ian Garry. Still, Usman is one of the greatest fighters of all time and if anyone can pull off an unlikely winning streak, it is probably him.

If there is one fighter to stay away from at welterweight right now, it is probably Joaquin Buckley. The Missouri native is on an impressive six fight win streak and has truly found a home at 170 pounds. Buckley has destructive knockout power and his last two wins over Stephem Thompson and Colby Covington truly showed how much he has improved. This division is stacked right now, but a win over Usman will certainly put Buckley one fight away from a title shot. After a puzzling call out of Conor McGregor and some unnecessary twitter activity, it is nice to see Buckley make a 180-degree turn and finding significant success as a UFC welterweight.

Usually, a fight between the No. 5 and No. 7 fighters of a division should be close and competitive. In this case, it will not be. I believe Buckley is going to dominate Usman from start to finish, and finish him within two rounds. Usman has not been active enough to have any confidence that he can still hang with the top tier of the division and has only gotten older. On the other hand, Buckley is confident, fresh and has the ability to knock anyone out in the division. The pair will trade in round one but it will be Buckley landing the more meaningful shots and getting Usman to back up. At some point in Round 2, he will drop Usman and finish the fight via ground strikes. This will be a monumental moment for Buckley and should put him in a title eliminator fight for his next Octagon visit.

Petela: In his prime, Kamaru Usman was arguably the most talented welterweight fighter in UFC history. Unfortunately, those days are over. This is absolutely a changing-of-the-guard fight. Joaquin Buckley is hitting his stride, and he gets to make a name for himself by taking out a former dominant champion.

This is my least favorite part about MMA, and combat sports in general. Older fighters rarely get to ride off into the sunset. Instead, they usually get carried off into the sunset on a stretcher as a shell of their former selves. That’s what I’m imagining this weekend. Buckley is going to run through a version of Usman that is clearly compromised by age and mileage. Maybe it gets out of the first round, but I don’t think that happens. A big right hand lands flush and ends the fight in devastating fashion.

Miranda Maverick has rattled off four consecutive wins; can she hold off the former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and extend her winning streak to five?

Petela: This is a matchup of a fighter getting ready to hit her stride and a veteran looking to hold onto relevance. Miranda Maverick is the one about to reach her prime and Rose Namajunas is past her championship days and looking to maintain her spot as a contender in the flyweight division.

Both of these women are good grapplers, with Maverick likely having the edge on the mat in this point in their careers. Namajunas is probably the smoother fighter on the feet, and, if she can stay fleet of foot and avoid the clinch, she should be in good shape. However, I don’t think that she will be able to keep Maverick from successfully closing the distance. I expect some dirty boxing and clinch work from Maverick to lead to repeated takedowns where she will control position and work enough to keep the referee from standing up the women. It won’t be the most exciting fight for many fans but it will be a clear cut decision win for Maverick.

Sumian: Unfortunately, I am on the complete opposite side of my colleague’s breakdown. Rose Namajunas is always a question mark, and it is definitely frustrating watching her fumble inside the Octagon due to a lack of confidence or mental unclarity. However, Miranda Maverick has not fought anyone near the caliber of Najamunas, even if she is no longer in her prime. Maverick’s last four wins came at the expense of Prisical Cachoeira, Andrea Lee, Dione Barbosa, and Jamey-Lyn Horth. In fact, three of her five losses were to upper tier fighters in the division including Maycee Barber, Erin Blanchfield, and Jasmine Jasudavicius. Maverick has certainly improved since those losses but I do not think it will be enough to take out Rose. If Rose comes into this fight even 75 percent of her capability, she will walk away with a clear 29-28 decision. That is precisely what will happen.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: I get that Paul Craig is loved by all, but he is 1-5 in his last six UFC fights, and it is getting harder to watch him get dominated fight after fight. Unfortunately, I think he is going to suffer another loss at the hands of Rodolfo Bellato. I expect Bellato to be smart and pick Craig apart with his striking before finishing him in TKO fashion. I am not sure if Craig will be cut if he loses but he probably should be.

Petela: Last week, it was hard to find a fighter who might be getting a pink slip, and, this week, it feels like there are a number of fighters who could be on the chopping block. Recently, it seems like Cody Garbrandt is fighting for his career. He has lost three of his last five and got submitted in his most recent outing. If he can’t get past Raoni Barcelos, it is probably time for the UFC to part ways with the former champion.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee. Two veterans who are beyond the point of looking for a title, these guys are going to have fun in the cage and show off why they have been in the promotion for years. A lot of slick grappling exchanges, and a few good old-fashioned, slobber-knocking striking exchanges will make this a fight worth tuning in early to watch.

Sumian: The light heavyweight bout between Alonzo Menifield and Oumar Sy is going to deliver. Sy is an 11-0 French prospect and is 2-0 in his UFC campaign. Menifield will be a formidable dance partner and is coming off an awesome fight of the night performance against Julius Walker. This will be my pick for fight of the night.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Cody Garbrandt. His days as an upper-tier competitor are certainly over, but ‘No Love’ still has enough fuel in the tank to deliver some memorable performances. He will hand Barcelos his second professional knockout loss and earn a nice bonus in the process.

Petela: Andre Petroski. He is going to run through Edmen Shahbazyan this weekend. Shahbazyan is a talented fighter who never got close to his full potential and has a questionable gas tank. The pressure and pace of Petroski will quickly break Shahbazyan and this will be a one sided fight for as long as it lasts.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Leftover Chick-Fil-A chicken nuggets. They’re great when they’re hot, but they lose their luster if they sit around too long. That’s kind of how the main and co-main events are this weekend. Two former champions who are all time greats but no longer bring the same joy to fans when they’re in the cage.

Sumian: The evening is going to be about the Missouri native Buckley. He will score the biggest win of his career and be in the mix for a title shot in 2026, possibly sooner. Thus, I will be ordering some toasted ravioli, a St. Louis classic, from Mamma’z Pizza in Pasadena, to pair with this card.