UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber Preview and Predictions

The UFC gets ready for Summer after a week off with action inside the UFC Apex this weekend as a pair of women’s flyweights clash in a five round main event. Erin Blanchfield was on the fast track to a title shot before getting outdueled by Manon Fiorot. Since then she rebounded with a victory over former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and will look to put together back-to-back wins by defeating Maycee Barber. Barber has rattled off six wins in a row and has moved from an exciting prospect to a legitimate contender. A win over Blanchfield might be enough to secure her a crack at the belt, still held by Valentina Shevchenko.

The co-main event is a men’s lightweight contest between Mateusz Gamrot and L’udovit Klein. Gamrot had a three fight winning streak snapped in his last fight, dropping an entertaining split decision to Dan Hooker. Klein has not lost since 2021, picking up six wins and one draw since the last time he tasted defeat.

UFC Vegas 107 airs live on ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Erin Blanchfield bounced back after her loss to title challenger Manon Fiorot by defeating Rose Namajunas; can she reassert herself as a legitimate contender by besting Maycee Barber?

Sumian: Blanchfield and Barber are two of the top dogs at women’s flyweight and both have shown the capability of one day becoming champions if they continue to improve and progress. If Barber wins, she is undoubtedly fighting for the title in her next UFC appearance. If Blanchfield wins, she might still be one away given how recently she lost to Manon Fiorot.

It was hard not to like and believe in Erin Blanchfield when she first burst onto the UFC scene. She has shown incredible strength, prolific grappling and the ability to gain favorable positions and finish fights. The problem is, she got utterly dominated by Manon Fiorot and was unable to adjust midfight. That being said, she is only 26 years old and has more than enough time to continue to develop and hone her skills. The New York native truly needs to improve on her striking so that her game plan is not so one dimensional and predictable. As she continues to face higher ranked fighters, she will struggle to impose her impressive ground game and need other tools to be able to defeat top tier opponents.

Maycee Barber is on an impressive six fight win streak and will certainly find herself in a title fight if she is able to defeat Blanchfield. However, the biggest knock on her winstreak is the quality of opponents. Her last four UFC victories have come at the expense of Jessica Eye (0-4 in her last four fights), Andrea Lee (0-4 in her last four fights), Amanda Ribas, (1-3 in her last four fights) and Kaitlyn Cerminara (2-2 in her last four fights). This is not entirely her fault and it has more to do with the fact that the division is fairly weak compared to the rest of the UFC’s division. Nevertheless, she has done her job well and has defeated everyone the UFC has put in front of her. Barber has continued to evolve throughout her UFC campaign and has looked noticeably better as the years have gone by. In addition, she is only 27 and has barely hit her prime as a mixed martial artist.

This one is going to the scorecards but it will be fun. We can only hope that both women have continued to improve and learn from their mistakes in past performances. While I understand that Blanchfield should have a clear grappling advantage, the odds (-238 Blanchfield) seem way too high to me. Barber is an incredible athlete, strong, and consistently sticks and moves throughout her matches. I think Blanchfield is going to struggle to get down and this will cause her to get frustrated. Both women will find success but it will be Barber that emerges victorious. She may get taken down, but she will be able to utilize her movement and superior striking to score a 48-47 victory over Blanchfield. The Colorado native will finally realize her dream of a title shot have the opportunity of a lifetime in her next octagon appearance.

Petela: Maycee Barber is one of the strongest fighters in the women’s flyweight division. Moreso than even her high level of talent, that may be her greatest attribute. It will give Erin Blanchfield some problems in this showdown because while she will have the technical advantage in the grappling it is not going to be easy to get Barber to the mat and work into a dominant position.

I don’t think this will be the last time these two gals meet. They are going to be the face of the flyweight division for a number of years and very well may meet for a championship before their careers come to a close. This should be a tightly contested fight, and ultimately I think the technical superiority of Blanchfield will win out over the size and strength of Barber. By the main event rounds, Barber’s strength will be depleted from constantly having to be on the defensive. That will allow Blanchfield to find openings and threaten with submissions. I don’t think she gets the finish but I do believe that she will nullify any offense from Barber and do enough threatening and damage of her own to get a clear cut decision victory.

Mateusz Gamrot has not fought in over nine months; does he show any ring rust in his comeback against L’udovit Klein>

Petela: Not quite sure how this fight ended up being made. Mateusz Gamrot should run right through L’udovit Klein. It is a mismatch plain and simple. One of these fighters is a potential future title challenger and the other is a talented fighter who hasn’t shown the next level ability to compete at the highest of high levels.

Besides the skill differential, the other reason why I don’t think this fight should have been made is because it won’t be fan friendly. Gamrot will be able to implement his wrestling gameplan and control the fight from start to finish. However, there won’t be many memorable moments in this one. He will work from the clinch to the mat and remain on top as he lands a smattering of ground and pound but not enough to get a finish. Dominant performance but nothing that moves his name higher in the rankings or to the front of the list as the next title challenger. Strange matchmaking for sure.

Sumian: I cannot tell if this is great matchmaking or confusing matchmaking. Gamrot is the number seventh ranked lightweight in the world and he is taking on Klein who is not even ranked in the top 15 of the division. I understand that Gamrot’s style doesn’t do him any favors but this is fairly mind boggling to me given how many more sensible opponents there are for both men to face. Nevertheless, the fight is happening!

I just do not see a world where Gamrot loses. He has fought significantly better in competition than Klien and shared the octagon with some of the division’s best. He will be able to utilize his grappling and clinchwork to outwork Kleina and score a 30-27 victory.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Trevin Giles. A fourth straight loss will send the San Antonio native packing. Giles showed some promise between 2020 and 2021, but has ultimately faced to make a mark. A loss will likely be the end for him.

Petela: Rayanne dos Santos. She is yet to score a win in the UFC after a championship run in Invicta. She has a winnable fight against Alice Ardelean this weekend and needs to come up with a solid performance or else she will probably be given her pink slip.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: MarQuel Mederos vs. Bolaji Oki. Mederos hasn’t lost inside the UFC and his only defeat came in his professional debut. Oki is coming into this fight after a loss so he will be hungry to get back on track. These two might not be household names but they will definitely put on a fun fight on the prelims that is worth watching.

Sumian: The lightweight matchup between Kurt Holobaugh and Jordan Leavitt is one of my favorite fighters on this card. The two combatants combine for 25 professional finishes have shown their ability to be exciting many times. This is my early prediction for fight of the night.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: I believe Bruno Lopes is here to impress. He has a tough veteran in front of him for his second UFC appearance in Dustin Jacoby. However, I believe the Brazilian will be able to overcome the lack of experience and score a finish in the second round.

Petela: I’m going the other direction. Dustin Jacoby is an entertainer, win or lose. He is never in a boring fight and this weekend I think he will overwhelm Lopes in his sophomore appearance. The pressure and pace of Jacoby will force Lopes to wilt before the halfway point in the fight and it will be a bonus worthy performance.

Pair this card with…

Petela: This is a pepperoni pizza fight card. Solid, top to bottom but no frills just some good old fashioned face punching and limb snatching.

Sumian: Rest days from the gym. We had a week off from the UFC and it has reinvigorated me. We are back and the fans will be ready for five straight weeks of UFC events including two PPV’s.