UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy Preview and Predictions

The big show is back at the UFC Apex this weekend. After showing off across the globe, the promotion returns home with a pair of talented featherweights adorning the marquee. Josh Emmett is a longtime member of Team Alpha Male, and, like most fighters in that camp, he hits tremendously hard and has high-level wrestling. Those core skills have gotten him to the precipice of the division, once competing for the interim title. Standing in his way, of once again challenging for the belt, is Lerone Murphy. Murphy has quietly amassed an undefeated record, only recently getting any real push from the promotion. His shining moment was two fights ago, when he shut down the offense of Edson Barboza for 25 minutes in Murphy’s first UFC main event. He has since defeated another talented fighter in Dan Ige, and a victory over Emmett would be an absolute feather in the Englishman’s cap.

The co-main event will also be contested in the featherweight division. Philadelphia product Pat Sabatini has lost twice under the UFC banner, both times having some early success before succumbing to his opponent. He will look to stay safe while pursuing a high volume attack this weekend against Joanderson Brito. Brito had a four fight winning streak snapped in his last outing and will be hellbent on getting back in the win column in this week’s co-main event.

The event airs live on ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Josh Emmett just celebrated his 40th birthday; can the former interim title challenger hold off a streaking Lerone Murphy and remain a legitimate contender?

Sumian: This is truly a tale of two fighters on very different paths. Josh Emmett is as game as they come and is responsible for some of the most memorable and devastating knockouts in the featherweight division. His only losses have truly been against elite competition, and he still continues to find a way to land and make his opponents feel his undeniable power. On other hand, Lerone Murphy is undoubtedly in his prime and riding a seven-fight winning streak since going to a draw with Zubaira Turkugov in his UFC debut. A win over Emmett moves Murphy into contender status and likely two to three fights away from a title shot.

If Emmett lands, his opponent is likely going to sleep. The longtime featherweight contender has earned himself a spot on the all-violence team for featherweight sluggers. However, Emmett is now 40 years of age and is certainly not the same fighter he used to be five years ago. Fortunately for him, his game doesn’t rely much on anything except timing and landing power punches. The problem for Emmett is that a win over Murphy doesn’t necessarily help him get to a title shot. He is still at least two fights away, and the competition at the top of the division only gets more difficult. If he can hand Murphy his first professional defeat in impressive fashion, it might move the needle enough to get him close to a top-contender fight before his career is all said and done.

Murphy is the perfect example of a prospect that was brought up correctly. With every Octagon appearance, his competition has increased in difficulty, but not enough to threaten his ability to grow and perform. His two most recent victories were at the expense of Edson Barboza and Dan Ige, and he is definitely ready to start facing top-ten competition. If the Manchester native does not knock his opponent out, he is absolutely capable of controlling the pace and doing enough damage to win a clear decision. The featherweight division is in need of some fresh contenders, and Murphy seems prime to enter that discussion in the coming year or so.

Murphy has not faced anyone like Emmett. This will be his toughest test to date, even though the former interim title challenger is 40 years old. For Murphy, the game plan will be to utilize his range and stay at kickboxing distance to avoid Emmett’s power shots. If Ilia Topuria could not finish Emmett, I simply find it hard to believe that Murphy will do so. For Emmett, it is clear what he has to do. He will be at height and speed disadvantages for this bout, and his only real path to victory is to finish Murphy and get inside to land big shots. It is difficult to imagine him outpointing the younger and faster Murphy at this point in his career.

I love Emmett, but I am going with Murphy on this one. He will be able to stay clear of the power, land precise counters, and dictate the pace and trajectory of the fight. Murphy by clear unanimous decision.

Petela: All respect in the world to Josh Emmett, and, as a fellow bald man with a red beard and colorful tattoos, I always want to see him succeed. However, 40 years old at featherweight is ancient. I could drone on for pages about the facts and data regarding fighters at his age in the lower weight classes, but, suffice it to say, things don’t often go well. Lerone Murphy is a hard-charging contender who put on a show against Edson Barbosa. I think he will be clearly the fleeter of foot fighter in this showdown and will use his superior speed to avoid the absolute thunderous power Emmett has in his hands. Decision win for Murphy in a fight with limited exciting moments, but, when those moments come, they will be enthralling.

Each of Pat Sabatini’s last four fights have ended by stoppage with two wins and two losses; does he buck that trend and go the distance against Joanderson Brito?

Petela: To disclose my bias, I’m a fan of Pat Sabatini. He is the quintessential Philadelphia fighter, cut from the same gritty cloth as legends like Joe Frazier and Paul Felder. I think the more experience he gets inside the Octagon, the better he will become as he learns from every fight, more than most fighters. He will be in peak condition this weekend, and will implement his game plan effectively against Joanderson Brito. Spamming takedowns, thudding ground-and-pound, and heavy positional control will lead Sabatini to a lopsided decision win.

Sumian: Pat Sabatini might have the bigger name between himself and Joanderson Brito. However, Brito should not be slept on. The Brazilian holds wins over Andre Fili, Westin Wilson, Jack Shore, and Jonathan Pearce. Between the two, I have more hope in Brito than Sabtani for future contendership status. Despite Sabatini’s best efforts, Brito will find a way to land and drop him to the ground before finishing the fight by ground-and-pound or submission. This may very well end the Sabatini experiment.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Brad Tavares. For a time, he was a very important fighter to keep around at middleweight. If you could beat Tavares, it meant you were likely a legit top 15-fighter in the division. These days, the former TUF veteran has compiled a 1-4 record since Jul. 2022, and his only win is over former middleweight champion Chris Weidman, who was coming off a devastating injury. If Tavares loses to fellow crafty veteran Gerald Meerschaert, I can see his time in the UFC coming to an end.

Petela: Ode Osbourne. He has struggled recently, to say the least. Three losses in a row, and an overall record of 12-8 doesn’t inspire much hope. Now, I am picking him to get the win and keep his roster spot, but, if I am wrong, this might be the final time fans see “The Jamaican Sensation” inside the UFC.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Victor Henry vs. Pedro Falcao. Henry is one of those fighters where his ability to put on a show outshines his actual fighting ability. He will bring that same energy out of Falcao this weekend, and these two will have a back-and-forth, high-paced showdown.

Sumian: Personally, my favorite fight on this card was Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Martin Buday. Nzechukwu is so fun to watch, and all seven of his most recent victories have come by way of knockout or submission. Buday is an enticing dance partner and I expected these two to throw down as soon as the fight starts. I would not be shocked if this fight landed on the list of best heavyweight fights of the last decade. However, Nzechukwu pulled on on short notice yesterday, and will be replaced by Uran Satybaldiev. The Kyrgyzstani fighter has a professional 9-0, is a former LFA and OFC light heavyweight champion, and is a knockout artist. I expect him to give Buday hell in his promotional debut.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Gerald Meerschaert. I think he is going to hand Tavares his first submission loss and do Meerschaert things. He will get battered, as he usually does in Round 1, before finding a way to lock up a slick choke in Round 2 or 3.

Petela: That is a bold call. I personally think Gerald Meerschaert gets mollywhopped. Regardless, I’ll stick with that fight and say that Brad Tavares gets a monster knockout, and leaves Meerschaert with a black eye to match his mat burn from constantly trying to get the fight to the ground.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Panera Bread. Their menu is as can’t-miss as this card. Just make sure the only cheese in your order is from the mac and cheese. It simply doesn’t belong anywhere else. Just like Panera Bread, this card is a sure thing. It’ll be worth the watch from start to finish.

Sumian: Spicy wings. I know we have UFC 314 around the corner, but I think this Apex card is going to deliver big time. I can see north of seven finishes and a lot of back-and-forth brawls. Pair this with some spicy wings to keep you on the edge, alert and ready to yell, “Ohhhhh!” whenever there is a finish.