UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 Preview and Predictions

In what almost seems like taunting, the UFC heads down under this weekend for UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2. Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland are both fighters who hold championship wins over New Zealand’s Israel Adesanya, and du Plessis earned his first title shot by defeating Australian fan favorite, Robert Whittaker. However, these two have proven they are the best middleweights on the planet, and they will face off for a second time with each man looking to put a definitive end to the contest.

The first fight between the two went the distance, and du Plessis won the belt via a very close, and somewhat controversial, split decision. Strickland, and many fans, thought that the incumbent champion should have gotten the nod. Since that fight, each man has fought once; Strickland earned a lopsided decision win over Paulo Costa, and du Plessis submitted the aforementioned Adesanya.

Gold is also on the line in the co-main event, as Weili Zhang looks to hold onto her strawweight belt against undefeated phenom Tatiana Suarez. In her second run as champion, Zhang has already defended the belt twice but will have a tough test on her hands as she looks to become the first woman to hand Suarez a loss. The road to the title looks smooth on paper for Suarez, but injuries have forced her out of action multiple times in her career, and she even flirted with a move up to flyweight. She looks to capitalize on the biggest opportunity of her career and one that most people feel is largely overdue.

The UFC 312 early prelims air on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

The first time Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland met it was a closely contested decision; which fighter will have learned the most from the first encounter?

Sumian: I am genuinely not sure we learned anything new. Sean Strickland is a crafty, calculated, and precision striker that generally wins uneventful decisions utilizing his crisp and accurate boxing and front kicks. Dricus du Plessis is Rocky Balboa and continuously finds ways to defeat higher skilled opponents due to his toughness and resilience. That being said, both are must-watch TV given their personalities, styles and recent performances. The first fight played out exactly as I had anticipated. The pair fought to a closely contested split decision that could have gone either way to their countering styles. Du Plessis got the nod, but there are many out there that believe Strickland had done enough to hold onto the title.

We all know what Strickland does well. He jabs, teeps, throws one-two combinations, and continuously moves forward while avoiding the attacks of his opponent. After losing to du Plessis, the former champion took on power puncher Paulo Costa, which ended in a split decision. Strickland clearly won that fight and continues to prove that, although his style is uneventful, it is effective to say the least. Strickland will need a bulletproof gameplan to ensure victory this time around. On one hand, he can play it safe and try to keep his distance by utilizing his kickboxing. On other hand, he can flip the script and go on the true offensive and try to finish du Plessis, which is sure to throw the champion off. Either way, taking out the champion will be a tall task.

Du Plessis is one of the most interesting UFC champions of all time. There is nothing about him that jumps off the paper. Yet, he, somehow, continues to pull off incredible wins and is quickly becoming a household name due to his no-quit style and unquestionable heart. This time around, I expect du Plessis to want to end this fight. Another close call may result in him losing the title and missing out on a potentially huge-money fight with Khamzat Chimaev. He will need to be aggressive with the takedowns and not allow Strickland to find his rhythm.

Both fighters should be doing something different to secure victory in their second meeting. The one who does will leave the Octagon with the belt. Despite Strickland’s undeniable talent and crisp standup, the champion is going to find a way to finish this fight before the final bell. He will go on the offensive and land several takedowns and ground-and-pound before the referee has seen enough. Du Plessis by third-round TKO.

Petela: I think Strickland gets his belt back. The more that Dricus du Plessis fights, obviously the more tape is out there and even someone as unorthodox as du Plessis has tendencies. Strickland’s camp will be able to prepare the proper gameplan this time to take advantage of the weird openings that du Plessis creates with his lumbering movements.

I think this one is going to be another great fight. The solid defense of Strickland will make du Plessis miss a lot. However, when he does find success it will do damage. Strickland will work behind his jab and chip away at du Plessis over the first few rounds. By the championship rounds, du Plessis will have had his moments but Strickland will begin to wear him down. When it comes to the fifth round, du Plessis will be near exhaustion and Strickland will capitalize and land an extended combination that marks the beginning of the end. Final round TKO for Strickland and he reclaims the belt.

Tatiana Suarez is undefeated; can she maintain her perfect record and dethrone Weili Zhang?

Petela: Absolutely. Tatiana Suarez has been a star in the making for a long time. Injuries have hampered her progress, but the time is finally here for fans the world over to see her immense talent.

I think Suarez will be dominant in this fight. She is a world-class wrestler and is a very large strawweight. She has beaten two former champions in her last four fights – Carla Esparza and Jessica Andrade. Not only did she beat those two women, she finished them. Esparza was finished with ground-and-pound via TKO, and Andrade was submitted by a guillotine. I think Zhang faces a similar fate; this one won’t go the distance. Suarez scores the finish and claims the strawweight title. Her reign as champion will last for several years.

Sumian: Suarez has competed a total of three times since 2019, and the only win worth mentioning was the Andrade victory. Weili Zhang is a superior athlete and vastly more experienced than Suarez. Sure, she may get taken down once or twice, but she will find a way back up and continue to put on the pressure. After all the years of injury and inactivity, it is impossible to know where Suarez is health-wise and cardio-wise. When it comes to facing the best fighters on the planet, a challenger needs to be on her A-game. Zhang will leave the Octagon with the belt, after putting on a dominant decision victory over the challenger.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 312?

Sumian: Khamzat Chimaev. Whatever happens on Saturday, he is up next and should be able to give either competitor a ride for their money. At one point, Chimaev was the biggest prospect in MMA, and he will finally have the opportunity to show the world why in the back half of 2025.

Petela: Tatiana Suarez. Her time has finally come, and she will be crowned champion. She will vault her profile, and fans will finally take notice of how supremely talented she has become, despite the numerous injuries.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 312?

Petela: Nassourdine Imavov. He just picked up the biggest win of his career by knocking out Israel Adesanya and was in line for a title shot with that win, but, if things go as I expect, and Sean Strickland gets his belt back, the headlining pair will be poised to meet in a trilogy. Imavov will be forced to sit on the sidelines for a while, or take another fight in the meantime, before he gets a crack at gold.

Sumian: UFC fans. Anyone that is paying for this pay-per-view is being robbed of their hard earned money. This main card should be cut in half given the lineup.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Jimmy Crute desperately needs a win to stick around. He is also 28 years old, and it would be a shame to see time cut short. A win over Rodolfo Bellato is a must if he hopes to keep his UFC career alive.

Petela: Cong Wang. She was on the wrong end of a massive upset the last time she fought, losing to Gabriella Fernandes. If she loses to Bruna Brasil, her hype train will be majorly derailed, and it might not be an easy road to get back on track.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Aleksandre Topuria vs. Colby Thicknesse. The brother of featherweight champion Ilia Topuria is making his UFC debut this weekend, and he is taking on a teammate of featherweight great Alexander Volkanovski. The storyline is fantastic, and both of these fighters are supremely talented, which makes this fight a can’t-miss prelim.

Sumian: I really like the lightweight matchup between Rong Zhu and Kody Steele. Zhu is an exciting prospect and has finished 21 opponents by knockout or submission. Steele is also an undefeated prospect coming off the Contender Series. These two should make for a back-and-forth brawl.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Tallison Teixeira. He is going to knock Justin Tafa out in enemy territory and earn himself a nice check in the process. I do expect Teixeira to have the potential of becoming one of the upper tier heavyweights in a few years.

Petela: Jimmy Crute. He will have a friendly audience and being buoyed by their cheers I expect him to get an emphatic victory. He will handle business and finish Rodolfo Bellato in the first round. He needs a win, as Andrew pointed out, and I think a home game is exactly what he needs to bolster his career.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Cool Blue Gatorade. I have it on good authority that Powerade is trash, so it is best to be brand-loyal this weekend. The middleweights in the main event keep a ferocious pace for men of their stature and somehow have the cardiovascular capacity to hold that pace for 25 minutes. For us mere mortals, just watching them slug it out for five rounds is enough to break a sweat. Replenish yourself with electrolytes while you watch the two best fighters at 185 pounds meet for the second time.

Sumian: A surprise party. Depending on who is involved, a surprise party can be extremely fun, really horrible or just in-the-middle. This card is a surprise party. It has a few big names to get people interested enough to follow on, but also a ton of unknowns that can result in a lackluster and uneventful evening.