UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura Preview and Predictions

This weekend, the UFC returns to the bright lights of Las Vegas for the final UFC pay-per-view of the year and features one of the most stacked fight cards in recent memory. The main event features an incredible flyweight title fight between the undisputed flyweight champion Alexandra Pantoja and UFC newcomer Kai Asakura. Pantoja will look to defend his belt for the third time and cement himself as the best flyweight in the world yet again. On other hand, Asakura will come into his UFC debut ready and willing to take the UFC by storm after a long and successful tenure in the RIZIN FF. The co-main event features a matchup of undefeated welterweight contenders featuring Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machada Garry. Rakhmonov was supposed to be fighting Belel Muhammad for the welterweight title in the main event of UFC 310, but the champion was forced to pull out after suffering a bone infection in his foot. The winner is certainly guaranteed the next crack at the title at some point in 2025.

The remainder of the card features a lineup of stellar matchups including a potential number one contender matchup between former UFC interim heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov. The pair previously faced off in June of 2021 and the match resulted in Gane defeating Volkov by unanimous decision. Depending on the landscape of the heavyweight title picture, the winner will likely find themselves fighting for an interim title in the first half of 2025. The prelims are headlined by former top ranked light heavyweight title challengers Dominick Reyes and Anthony Smith. The remainder of the prelims include pivotal matchups between Movsar Evloev and Aljamain Sterling, Chris Weidman and Eryk Anders and Randy Brown and Bryan Battle. UFC 310 is stacked from top to bottom and should close out the year’s PPV run with a night to remember.

The UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Asakura early prelims air on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

Kai Asakura has a chance to become champion in his UFC debut; can the Japanese star end Alexandre Pantoja’s reign as champion?

Sumian: This main event is going to be overlooked, and it should not be. It features two of the most dynamic and exciting fighters in the sport today regardless of their status as flyweights. Both Asakura and Pantonja have continuously proven they are capable of putting thrilling performances and pushing it to the limit. Will the UFC’s signing of Asakura prove to be one of the most wise business decisions of the year or will Pantoja prove once again he is simply the best flyweight in the world by a margin?

Kai Asakura is the real deal. Despite never fighting in the UFC, he has every right to be challenging for the UFC flyweight title given the current climate of the flyweight division. Pantoja has ultimately cleaned out the 125 pound division and faced many of the top flyweights throughout his career. Yes, there are still notable names for him to face, but the thrill and mystery of taking on Asakura will only make this fight more intriguing. Asakura is predominantly a striker and has established himself as a notable KO artist. He has the speed, precision, and technique to knockout any top flyweight in the world and has proven so time after time. For Asakura, it will come down to his ability to adapt to the UFC spotlight. Will be able to handle a top tier champion like Pantoja? Will his cardio hold up? So many questions will be answered come Saturday night and it is up to the Japanese star to silence the doubters.

What is there to say about Alexandre Pantoja except that he is awesome. This man continuously gets ignored simply because he is flyweight despite the fact that he has not been in a boring fight for years. Pantoja has inarguably separated himself from the rest division and is undeniably the best flyweight in the world at this point in time. His grappling is top tier and his striking has significantly improved since the early years of his career. Pantoja is currently on a six fight win streak and has defeated some of the best flyweights in the world on his way to the title. A win over Asakura will not only cement his championship run, but also show the world that it will take a very special contender to dethrone him.

I am excited for this fight, truly. It is always exciting when an unknown entity enters the mix and causes total disruption. Despite Asakura’s talent and power, it is hard for me to believe that he will be the one to dethrone Pantoja. For one, Asakura has never gone five rounds and will likely give up a significant cardio disadvantage to the more seasoned Pantoja. He will also be fighting in an octagon for the first time which can prove troublesome for a UFC newcomer. If Asakura can keep this fight on the feet, he has a shot of upsetting the champion and ending the year with a bang. Unfortunately, this will not be the case. Pantoja will pressure Asakura early and often, and eventually secure the takedown that leads to a submission win. There are many fun fights for the Japan native to take on, but victory will not come at the expense of the champion.

Petela: I like Andrew’s point about this being a chance for Kai Asakura as he isn’t accustomed to fighting in a cage. That could actually make a major difference. I don’t think it will, but it could.

I like Kai Asakura’s chances in this one. Just from going over the tape, I think he will have the edge on the feet and the ability to avoid any danger on the ground from Pantoja. I don’t think the weight cut will be much of a problem, and Asakura will likely be a much bigger man when the two fighters have the cage locked behind them on Saturday night. There is no doubt that Alexandre Pantoja is an elite fighter and he has scary power himself but just going with my gut from the footage I have seen on both men I think that Asakura will be able to counter strike effectively to the point where Pantoja has to look to grapple. After tasting the power of Asakura, Pantoja will rush his level changes and eat punches and knees as he closes distance. Eventually that will force him to wilt and a new champion will be crowned before the end of the fourth round.

To borrow a cliche, somebody’s O has got to go in the co-main event; will it be Shavkat Rakhmonov or Ian Machado Garry who tastes defeat for the first time?

Petela: What bothers me most about this question is that nobody ever has an “O” in their record because it is a zero. That being said, Shavkat Rakhmonov is going to absolutely steamroll Ian Machado Garry. Kudos to Garry for taking on such a daunting challenge but this is going to be way too much for him.

There is just a huge gap in talent in the grappling between the two fighters. The perfect example that is the fight Ian Machado Garry had against Michael “Venom” Page. There is no chance that MVP survives on the mat with Rakhmonov. I think Garry will hold his own on the feet, but he will be exposed on the canvas when Rakhmonov is just too powerful and technical to be slowed down on the ground. Second round submission for the still undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Sumian: In many ways, this fight is so much more intriguing than the former main event of UFC 310. Belal Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov are both top tier fighters, but the champion would have ultimately forced a boring and uneventful bout. Instead, we get undefeated versus undefeated and there is simply no better way to end the year. Despite Rakhmonov’s undeniable talent, this fight is a toss up. Garry’s unlikable personality and cringe worthy interviews make him an obvious target to both UFC fans and the media. However, it is simply impossible to argue that he is not one of the best welterweights in the world despite a few lackluster performances. If anything, his wins over Goeff Neal and Michael Page showed his ability to control the pace and distance of a fight and win without taking damage. Garry is a lot smarter than people think and I do not expect Rakhmonov to run over him like many believe.

All that being said, I am siding with Rakhmonov to win a close yet high level unanimous decision. I see Garry take one round and Rakhmonov being able to assert his skillset for two. It will be close, competitive, and extremely entertaining for the hardcore UFC fan.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 310?

Sumian: Alexander Volkov. The hype around Ciryl Gane has always been puzzling. He is a prolific kickboxer, but nothing has shown me that he is capable of being the best heavyweight in the world. On the other hand, Volkov continues to get better and has been in the trenches with the likes of Tom Aspinall, Sergei Pavlovich, Alistair Overeem, and Curtis Blaydes. Volkov will prove why he deserves the next heavyweight title shot with a clear victory over the former interim heavyweight champion.

Petela: Brandon Moreno. As long as Alexandre Pantoja holds the flyweight belt, he wasn’t going to get a fourth crack at beating his nemesis. With the title changing hands in the main event, Moreno is back to being one win away from a title shot and a future matchup between Kai Asakura and Brandon Moreno is sure to be an exciting contest.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 310?

Petela: Alexandre Pantoja. He is going to lose his title to a fighter that many people have never seen fight before. Kai Asakura is phenomenally talented, and this loss will age well, but, in the immediacy, the loss will hurt Pantoja’s stock tremendously.

Sumian: The loser of Dominick Reyes and Anthony Smith. The loser should be done, and rightfully so. There is no reason either should be fighting again if they suffer a loss.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Aljamain Sterling. It is clear the UFC does not value him. He is not a draw and is unlikable with the fans. He has been discarded onto the prelims with another lacklust contender in Evloev and desperately needs a victory to cement himself as someone worth watching. Sterling will need a dominant victory if he hopes to return to stardom.

Petela: At this point in his career, Chris Weidman is sorely in need of a victory. It is likely his last fight, tip-toeing around retirement questions leading up to this fight and the previously scheduled fight with Anders. For fans of “The All-American,” hopefully he puts on a good performance and can go out on a high note.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: The catchweight clash between Chris Weidman and Eryk Anders. This is a rescheduled fight that was supposed to take place at UFC 309, but Anders was forced to withdraw at the last minute. Both of these guys walk around over 200 pounds, so it will be interesting to see how well they perform after multiple weight cuts in such a short period of time.

Sumian: Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie is going to be messy, silly, and downright eventful. These two are poor strikers, but possess some of the best grappling in the UFC today. We can only hope these two will put on a grappling show that will remind fans of their skills and ensure the main card stays rolling.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Themba Gorimbo. This one is bold, to say the least. Vicente Luque is no slouch and possesses some of the best striking in the game. I expect Gorimbo to rise to the occasion and pull of a stunning victory over the Brazilian.

Petela: Nate Landwehr. “The Train” is becoming must-watch television. He will have the perfect opponent to entertain fans, taking on Doo Ho Choi. These two featherweights will put on a heck of a show, and, with a late knockout, Landwehr will get his hand raised and his pockets stuffed with $50K.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Pumpkin beer and a veggie tray. I have it on good authority that this is a delightful combination. Does it tie in perfectly with this fight card? Maybe. The main event is a flyweight fight and I have to believe that the only way that either of these fighters is able to stay close to 125 lbs. is by filling up on vegetables while most of us are chowing down on holiday food that makes you want to take a nap.

Sumian: Cheers. Yes, the main event doesn’t exactly sound off any alarms but the entirety of the card is top tier. 2024 has been an incredible career for the UFC and includes some of the most memorable moments in MMA history. Enjoy, eat, drink, and cheers your friends as you watch. Lets go, 2025.