UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Hernandez Preview and Predictions

The UFC hosts another fight night this weekend with a middleweight showdown sitting at the top of the card. Michel Pereira broke onto the scene as a dancing, wacky fighter who was more bark than bite. He has evolved into a contender by dialing back the dance moves on the way to the cage and focusing on the pinpoint precision of his striking. He takes on submission specialist Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez who has rattled off five straight victories en route to this main event appearance.

The co-main event is a bantamweight clash between Rob Font and Kyler Phillips. Font has struggled recently, losing his last two fights to Deiveson Figueiredo and Cory Sandhagen. He mixed in a victory over Adrian Yanez but lost two consecutive bouts prior to that win as well. The former CES MMA featherweight champion needs a victory in order to maintain his relevance inside the promotion. His opponent, Kyler Phillips, has won three straight fights and is looking to add another veteran name to his resume as he bolsters his case as an elite bantamweight.

UFC Fight Night Pereira vs. Hernandez airs live in its entirety on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Michel Pereira has gone from an entertaining sideshow to a legitimate contender; can he take another big step in the right decision and defeat Anthony Hernandez?

Sumian: This is a classic striker versus grappler matchup, and is absolutely worthy of a fight night main event. For Pereira, the stakes could not be any higher. He is currently riding an eight fight win streak and is poised to be a splash in the top 10 rankings with a victory this Saturday. Similarly, Hernandez is on an impressive five fight win streak and continues to look more impressive with every win. The winner of this bout is slated for a top 10 matchup!

Anthony Hernandez is fun, exciting, and nothing short of impressive. He has quietly established himself as top tier contender and is consistently getting better. Hernandez has only two losses in the UFC and his “coming to light” performance was certainly his impressive victory over Rodolfo Vierira back in February of 2021. The California native has undeniable skills and will need to dig deep more than ever before to defeat the surging Michel Pereiara.

Michel Pereira is my breakout fighter for 2024, plain and simple. Not only has he finished a majority of his opponents in impressive fashion, but he also got consistently better with every performance. The Brazil native will need to negate his opponents ground game and keep this on the feet to ensure victory. On the feet, Pereiara is drastically better than the majority of the middleweight roster and will need to utilize that strength this coming Saturday.

I generally give a much more in depth analysis for a main event, but this one is easy for me. Michel Pereira will finish Anthony Hernandez by TKO and earn himself a top 10 competitor. It is now or never for the 31 year old Pereira and I believe the time is now.

Petela: Few things make me as happy as when Andrew is so glaringly wrong. Basically you can take his prediction and invert it for my thoughts on this fight. Pereira is flashy and explosive, he certainly can end a fight in the blink of an eye but in order to do that he puts himself in often precarious positions. That won’t fly this weekend.

Hernandez will be able to evade the strikes of Pereira early on and capitalize when Pereira ends up being out of position after a big, dynamic movement. Once this fight gets to the ground, Hernandez will shine and methodically work his way past the guard of Pereira and lock an arm triangle choke. For the coming year, the fighter in this matchup to watch climb the ranks is Anthony Hernandez. This will be his sixth straight win and it will set him up for another high profile fight in the near future.

Rob Font has lost four of his last five fights; does the Massachusetts fighter have anything left in the tank or will his fight with Kyler Phillips be the end of the road?

Petela: On paper, Rob Font looks like he is having a terrible run in the UFC. However, when you look at who he has lost to it seems like he has just plateaued and is one notch below the best in the world. He knocked out Adrian Yanez and soundly defeated former champion Cody Garbrandt. The Yanez win is the more impressive of those, since Garbrandt really hasn’t been the same since TJ Dillashaw beat the career out of him.

This fight should be evenly contested, neither man will ever be champion but they are both talented and have the gas tanks to keep a high pace over the entirety of the contest. Font probably takes a decision in a fight that isn’t noteworthy, though fun to watch as it is happening.

Sumian: No, he will not. Kyler Phillips is the new age and trains with an elite team out of Arizona. He is a prolific and dynamic striker and will give Font a run for his money.

I do expect this fight to go to the cards but it will be Phillips coming out on top. His versatility, dynamic striking, and athleticism will give Font trouble from start to finish. Phillips by unanimous decision and on route top a top tier opponent for his next outing.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Daniel Pineda. By Far. He is 39 years old and 1-1-3 in his last five fights. A win is essential for the 42 fight veteran to keep his roster spot. However, beating the always crafty Dareen Eklins is no easy task.

Petela: Jessica Penne. The end is near for the former title challenger. She is 41 years old and has lost two in a row. A third straight loss at this point in her career could be a back breaker and she might want to hang up the gloves.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: This prediction could backfire on me but I am going with the heavyweight clash between Robelis Despaigne and Austen Lane. I think these two guys stand and trade until one of them falls over, which could make for an entertaining fight or a sloppy boxing match with abysmal cardio. I’m hoping for the former, though neither would come as a surprise.

Sumian: Elise Reed versus Jessica Penne. Yes, this is an unpopular opinion or pick but I truly think these two women are going to beat eachother up for 15 minutes. Both have the “dog” in them and will go at it for three straight rounds.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Brad Katona. He will finish Jean Matsumoto by submission and earn himself a bonus. Katona still has the ceiling to get better and this fight will show just that.

Petela: Matheus Nicolau. He needs a win in the worst way and I expect him to get one over Asu Almabayev on Saturday. This is Nicolau’s second run in the UFC and he has shown that he is a world class fighter. He knocks out Almabayev, reasserts himself in the flyweight division, and earns an extra $50K.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Michel Pereira’s fighting style can be described as all gas and no brakes. That’s great for MMA but not so good for your vehicle so as we prepare for the cold winter weather go ahead and schedule your brakes to be examined by your local mechanic or if you’re up to the task take a little time this weekend and do the job yourself. Even better, supervise while you have someone else do it for you.

Sumian: Fast forward button on the controller. I won’t be tuning into this fight card and neither should unless you really have nothing going on. The main event should be fun and electric but the rest is just filler play. Instead, tune yourselves up for the following weekend which should be the best card of the year not including UFC 300.