Grand Sumo’s Nagoya basho starts in two weeks. As is tradition, before a tournament begins, the Japan Sumo Association drops their banzuke. That official ranking document tells us what ranks and divisions all the wrestlers in the Grand Sumo system will be competing under. Those rankings are based on performances at the previous basho, with wrestlers who got winning records climbing the ranks and those with losing records falling down. These Combat Press rankings are not based on the win-loss records from the past tournament. Instead, this list ranks wrestlers based on who is the most likely wrestler to win the top division championship this month (regardless what their actual rank is).
1. Onosato (1)
Official rank: Yokozuna 2 west
Record at last tournament: 14-1, yusho (championship)
Onosato looked incredible in May. He smashed through the competition wrapping up his fourth career top division championship with two days to spare. His only loss came on the final day against Hoshoryu (someone who remains as Onosato’s personal boogeyman). Despite that loss, Onosato finished the tournament as king of his division and the title (his second in a row) ensured his promotion to become the sport’s 75th yokozuna.
Onosato is one of the fastest ever rikishi to make yokozuna, having competed in just 14 senior tournaments. He’s also the only wrestler to ever make yokozuna after recording only winning records in his career.
Given all he’s achieved in such a short amount of time, and how his sumo appears to be still improving, Onosato has to be the favourite to win this next tournament in Nagoya.
2. Hoshoryu (2)
Official rank: Yokozuna 1 west
Record at last tournament: 13-2, jun-yusho (runner-up)
Hoshoryu stumbled early in the May tournament and then couldn’t catch up to Onosato, despite beating him on the final day. Hoshoryu heads into Nagoya for his third tournament as a yokozuna. This will be his first tournament with another yokozuna competing, though. Hoshoryu appeared nervy and lacking focus in his recent tournaments. Some of that may be due to the pressure of having to represent sumo‘s top rank by himself. With the attention off of him for this tournament, Hoshoryu could thrive. And, if it comes down to a final day or play-off bout against Onosato for the cup, you have to favour him to win yet another head-to-head battle with his closest rival. In order to get in that situation, though, Hoshoryu will need to iron out the kinks in his game and make sure he doesn’t drop an easier match to a low ranked opponent early in the tournament.
Nagoya is where Hoshoryu won his first and only yusho. He’s likely desperate to make this the site of his second yusho and thus spoil the coming out party of Japan’s newest yokozuna.
3. Wakatakakge (5)
Official rank: Sekiwake 2 west
Record at last tournament: 12-3, jun-yusho, gino-sho (technique prize)
In Nagoya Wakatakakage will be competing at the rank of sekiwake, two below yokozuna. This is the rank he had in 2023 before a major knee injury sidelined him for eight months and forced his rankings to plummet into the makushita (third division). He’s been excellent since returning to makuuchi and continues to show that he’s one of the best rikishi on the planet. Had it not been for that injury he would have likely secured an ozeki promotion and might have even beaten Hoshoryu and Onosato to the yokozuna ranks.
Wakatakakage was great in May. He has a good head-to-head record against both Onosato and Hoshoryu, so he could have a big say in who wins this tournament. Unlike those ranked first and second here, Wakatakakage is fighting with little pressure or expectation to win the title. That could make him a very dangerous wrestler this month.
4. Kotozakura (3)
Official rank: Ozeki 1 east
Record at previous tournament: 8-7
Kotozakura coasted in the May tournament after locking up a kachi-koshi (winning record). As an ozeki his rank is safe unless he has back-to-back losing records. Getting the winning record last time out means he should be able to operate with a lot less pressure in the Nagoya tournament. Kotozakura is also slowly returning to form and fitness after a knee injury hampered his sumo in the early months of this year.
He won the title in November and looked the odds-on favourite to become the 74th yokozuna before those injuries. When fit Kotozakura is a nightmare opponent for anyone in the division. He’s too big and strong to be pushed back, with ease, by Onosato. And his size and grappling defense makes it extremely difficult for Hoshoryu to throw him.
If Kotozakura is fully fit in Nagoya, then he deepens the field of potential title winners to at least four.
5. Kirishima (4)
Official rank: Sekiwake 1 west
Record at previous tournament: 11-4, gino-sho
Kirishima is a long shot to win the title in Nagoya. However, you can never count out someone as talented and creative as he is. He was the best wrestler in the sport in 2023. 2024 was a nightmare year for him where he was plagued with a neck injury. That injury cost him his ozeki rank. Since then he’s put together some very good performances and he has himself back in the hunt for another ozeki promotion.
He shows up in the high pressure matches, so even if he’s not fighting to get himself the cup he might very well spoil a rival’s chances of doing that.
Full rankings
- Onosato (1)
- Hoshoryu (2)
- Wakatakakage (5)
- Kotozakura (3)
- Kirishima (4)
- Daieisho (6)
- Abi (10)
- Aonishiki (NR)
- Takayasu (9)
- Wakamotoharu (8)
- Oho (13)
- Oshoma (NR)
- Kinbozan (NR)
- Onokatsu (19)
- Tamawashi (12)
- Hakuoho (11)
- Meisei (NR)
- Takerufuji (7)
- Hiradoumi (16)
- Atamifuji (20)
Just missed the cut: Endo, Ichiyamamoto, Ura
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