UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 Preview and Predictions

The UFC returns to Newark, N.J. for the eleventh time and features a stacked main card that is headlined by two title fights. UFC 316 is headlined by a rematch between current UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and former champion Sean O’Malley. The pair previously met at UFC 306, where Dvalishvili defeated O’Malley by unanimous decision to claim the UFC bantamweight championship. The co-main event features current women’s bantamweight champion Julianna Peña and top contender Kayla Harrison. Peña reclaimed the belt by defeating Raquel Pennington at UFC 307 and is looking to defend her belt for the first time in her second UFC championship title run. Harrison has taken the UFC world by storm after defeating Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira in less than a year’s time.

The remainder of the main card features several enticing matchups including the UFC debut of former Bellator bantamweight champion Patchy Mix. Mix will take on Maurio Bautista who is currently on a seven fight win streak. The remainder of the main card features a middleweight matchup between Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer, and a welterweight matchup between Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland.

The UFC 316 early prelims air live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Merab Dvalishvili outworked Sean O’Malley in the first fight en route to victory; has “Suga” adjusted his gameplan enough to change the story in the rematch?

Sumian: Sean O’Malley has certainly had adequate time to make the adjustments necessary to defeat the champion. He took very little damage in that fight, despite being handedly defeated. Ultimately, if O’Malley has been able to find a way to stay on his feet, the chances of him knocking out Merab Dvalishvili are fairly high.

O’Malley has had a very successful, yet strange, few years in the UFC. He won a questionable split decision over Petr Yan, knocked out Aljamain Sterling to claim the belt, defended his belt against an undeserving Marlon Vera, and lost the belt to current champion Dvalishvili in convincing fashion. Still, he remains one of the top five most popular fighters in the UFC due to his personality, style, and marketability. That is precisely why he finds himself fighting for the title again, despite not recording a victory since losing the belt. O’Malley being the UFC bantamweight champion is good for business, plain and simple. However, he will need to have improved tremendously since their last meeting if he hopes to reclaim the belt.

Dvalishvili is quickly making a case for claiming the mantle of greatest bantamweight in UFC history. Since 2012, there have been 10 different undisputed UFC bantamweight champions, including all-time greats Dominick Cruz and Aljamain Sterling. Dvalishvili’s current run and accomplishments easily put him in the top-three conversation, and a couple more wins will likely cement his legacy as the greatest bantamweight of all time. Although he is not as popular as O’Malley, his relentless cardio, hard work, and dedication are apparent every time he steps foot in the Octagon.

Ultimately, this fight comes down to how much O’Malley has been able to adjust and improve since the last time these two fought. Dvalishvili has no reason to change his gameplan given how successful he was the first time these two met. He will approach this bout in the same way he did the first time and rely on his cardio, relentless pressure, and takedown ability to frustrate and control O’Malley. It will be up to O’Malley to turn the tide and force a different outcome.

It is hard to pick against Dvalishvili given how effective his style is. However, I am going to go with O’Malley by split decision. This fight is going to be close, and many will believe that the champion was robbed. The challenger will do just enough to stay on his feet and land counters for five rounds to steal the belt. After the result, I believe these two will meet for a third time to finally settle the score.

Petela: I don’t think there is enough time in the world for Sean O’Malley to improve in the one area that Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili excels most, and that is cardio. That isn’t a knock on O’Malley. It is true for just about any other fighter on the planet. Dvalishvili really is a machine, as his nickname suggests, and he makes the Energizer Bunny look like a tortoise. He is incredibly consistent with his pace throughout a fight, no matter how long, and he operates at a level that just suffocates his opponents.

Now sure, if O’Malley connects flush, it could spell disaster for Dvalishvili. “Suga” has the kind of power to end a fight in an instant, as we have seen many times in his career. Dvalishvili can also be a bit reckless at times, so I would say that O’Malley has a chance at closing the show before he is too tired to throw with any authority. I just don’t think it happens. I think the fight largely plays out like the first one, with O’Malley landing the best single strike of the fight, but the copious amount of connections that Dvalishvili lands, along with significant control over where the fight takes place and for how long, will outweigh any big moments for O’Malley. The champion retains his title in another clear-cut decision.

Juliana Peña was given a gift by the judges to take the belt away from Raquel Pennington; does she have what it takes to hold back the heavily favored challenger, Kayla Harrison?

Petela: I don’t think that the biggest question going into this fight is whether or not Juliana Peña can beat a healthy Kayla Harrison. She simply cannot. However, after a long and storied martial arts career, the weight cut to 135 pounds is going to take a toll on Harrison. She began her mixed martial arts career as a lightweight, has sporadically competed as a featherweight, and now, in the UFC, she had to reinvent herself as a bantamweight to compete in the promotion.

I think Harrison will be slightly depleted by the time the fight rolls around but she will still have enough in her tank to get the job done. She will be the more talented grappler, and that’s where both women excel. She will be able to put Peña on her back, control positions while landing strikes, and ultimately batter the champion until the referee halts the fight. A new champion will be crowned, but she won’t have the belt long, simply because she won’t be able to repeatedly make weight in a safe manner.

Sumian: Julianna Peña is unlikable, but there is no denying what she has accomplished throughout her career. She has never been the most talented fighter, but has been able to get by on grit, toughness, and sheer will. On the other hand, Kayla Harrison is a specimen and one of the strongest women to ever step foot inside the Octagon. Peña pulled off one of the craziest upsets in UFC history when she defeated Amanda Nunes. However, their second meeting clearly showed that the victory was a fluke, and Nunes was significantly off her game in their first fight.

I just do not see a world where Peña has a chance. Both fighters have the same expertise, which is wrestling, and Harrison is vastly better than Peña. She will also have a significant strength advantage over the champion, which will come in handy when working to take Peña down. The only way I see Peña winning is if she is able to pull some type of triangle or armbar off her back, as Harrison is attacking or trying to gain favorable position. Harrison by third-round submission, despite Peña doing everything she can to stay in the fight.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 316?

Sumian: The UFC. If the results that I have predicted above come to fruition, then the UFC will be incredibly happy. They will have O’Malley at the top of the world, yet again, and a new superstar in Harrison that will likely compile a dominant title reign.

Petela: Norma Dumont. She is probably the next women’s bantamweight challenger, since Raquel Pennington just lost the belt and Ketlen Vieira missed weight in her last fight. With the two women ahead of her in the rankings unlikely to get the shot, Dumont will find herself at the front of the line. The real reason this weekend is a win for her is because it means that there will be even more miles on Kayla Harrison’s engine by the time they fight. Dumont has a better chance at an eventual upset the more times Harrison has to fight and make weight.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 316?

Petela: Kelvin Gastelum. If he makes weight, which is certainly not a guarantee, he is going to get absolutely steamrolled. Joe Pyfer is as strong as an ox, and once he gets his hands on Gastelum, and is able to get the fight to the mat, this is going to be a drubbing. Ground-and-pound finish before they get to the third round, and it will leave Gastelum questioning where to go from here after once again being shown that he is a notch or two below the best in the world. There is nowhere near enough time for him to make the necessary improvements.

Sumian: Maurio Bautista. I would certainly not want to be the one that welcomes Patchy Mix to the UFC. Props on Bautista for taking this fight, but it will likely result in a loss. Mix is levels above anyone that Bautista has fought throughout his seven-fight winning streak, and Mix will be sure to bring his best on Saturday night.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Ariana da Silva, I guess. She is on a two-fight losing streak, but likely won’t be cut if she loses, given the shallowness of the women’s divisions. It’s definitely concerning when a fighter drops three in a row, so it will ultimately depend on how good or bad she looks during the fight despite the result.

Petela: This is definitely not a card where many people are on the chopping block, but I think this is a very important fight for Kevin Holland. All of his trash talking is only entertaining if he can match it with consistent performances, even if he never makes it to the championship level. Taking on an aging veteran like Vicente Luque, Holland will need a win to stay in the relevant column of fighters and not become just another name the hardcore fans tune in to watch at the UFC Apex.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson. These guys are going to stand and try to see which one can punch the other’s face through the back of his head. Williams has eight knockouts on his record, as does Gustafsson. One of them will earn No. 9, and it will be a can’t-miss affair to watch them try.

Sumian: It is not really sleeper, but I think VIcente Luque and Kevin Holland are going to steal the show on Saturday. These are two of the most exciting welterweights in the UFC today. Holland has collected eight Performance of the Night bonuses, and Luque has collected nine, including four Fight of the Night bonuses. These two are going to go to war and may put on a bout that ends up in the conversation for Fight of the Year.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Kayla Harrison. She will dominate this fight from start to finish before locking up a powerful submission and force Peña to tap. Harrison belongs in the UFC, and she will bring some much needed life to an otherwise ailing women’s bantamweight division.

Petela: Patchy Mix. His UFC debut is going to be a launching pad for the former Bellator champion. A dominant submission win over a legitimate contender like Mario Bautista will get him the recognition and money that he rightly deserves.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Buffalo ranch fries. The combination of buffalo and ranch is a match made in heaven, and they compliment each other perfectly just like the gruff advice from Ray Longo compliments the smiling excited energy of Merab Dvalishvili. We may no longer get the one-two punch of Longo and Matt Serra in the corner, but Dvalishvili and Longo have a hell of a dynamic that makes watching between rounds almost as great as the fight itself.

Sumian: A hefty yet delicious Italian sandwich. This card has it all from top to bottom, just like an Italian sub filled with a variety of deli meats, veggies, bread, and sauce. The early prelims feature some prominent fights, and the regular prelims feature several well-known fighters, both veteran and on the rise. Top it off with a main card that features two title fights, the debut of Patchy Mix and two compelling matchups? We got ourselves a meal.