UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates Preview and Predictions

After a week away from action, the UFC returns with a Fight Night headlined by a pair of welterweights with title aspirations. Ian Machado Garry is coming into this main event with Carlos Prates after losing for the first time in his professional career. He came up short against the indestructible object that is Shavkat Rakhmonov. Prates is yet to look vincible inside the UFC, notching four knockouts thus far in his tenure. The cigarette smoking Brazilian would be adding the biggest feather in his cap to date if he can hand Garry his second consecutive loss.

The co-main event will be contested at light heavyweight and features a promotional mainstay looking to find the fountain of youth as Anthony Smith takes on Zhang Mingyang. Smith has lost three of his last four bouts and has not delivered a particularly inspired looking performance in some time. He has his hands full with Zhang, who has been out of action since 2023 but has finished all eighteen of his professional victories, including twelve by way of knockout.

The event airs live in its entirety on ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Ian Machado Garry is coming off of his first professional loss; can the phenom against another rising star in Carlos Prates?

Sumian:This fight is sure to deliver one of the most exciting stand-up fights in recent welterweight history. Ian Garry desperately needs a win to continue his climb up the welterweight division, and a loss to Carlos Prates will send him tumbling down the rankings. For Prates, defeating Garry will result in a top-10 ranking and probably two fights away from a title fight.

Despite Garry’s undeniable success thus far in his career, he has somewhat cooled off. His most recent performance against Shavkat Rakhmonov on short notice was nothing short of impressive. The Irish native proved to the world that he is one of the elite talents at 170 pounds and is able to give anybody in the top 10 trouble even without a full training camp. However, before that fight, Garry had two questionable performances against Michael Page and Geoff Neal. He was ultimately victorious in both, but he lacked the tenacity and finishing instinct that was on display during the first few fights of his UFC career. Still, Garry is special and people do want to see him compete. The seventh-ranked welterweight is still only 27 years old and has a ton of room to grow and improve.

Prates is just fun – plain and simple. He is part of the Fighting Nerds camp, which seems to have taken the UFC by storm in the last year or so. On top of that, he is a prolific kickboxer and has finished all four of his UFC opponents by first- or second-round knockout. The Brazilian is on the rise and is easily one of the most exciting prospects the welterweight division has seen in some time. The biggest question in this fight will be his ability to take on a significant step-up in competition. Prates’s best win came at the expense of Neil Magny, who is at the end of his MMA career. If he is able to defeat Garry, it will skyrocket his stock and set him up for a huge top-five match at welterweight.

This is great matchmaking, to say the least. Both are fantastic strikers and capable of finishing their opponents on a good night. The biggest difference is the level of competition both competitors have faced. Garry has simply faced much better competition thus far in his career and Prates will have to deal with someone who has been fighting top 15 welterweights for the last year or so. Thus, I am going with Garry by fourth-round stoppage. He will be able to negate Prates’s power and pressure and get him into the championship rounds before finding a finish. Prates will only come back stronger but this seems too much for the Brazilian’s fifth UFC appearance.

Petela: There is no doubt that Ian Garry is talented. He is also brazen on the microphone, and his unwavering confidence leads him to be more bark than bite. His last two fights, against Michael Page and Shavkat Rakhmonov, left much to be desired. He came away with a win against Page, but he didn’t do much to back up his trash talk. He then largely got stifled by Rakhmonov, who handed him his first career loss. I just don’t think Garry has the quality needed by a champion to bounce back – both between fights and during fights – when he finds out what it is like to be the nail rather than always the hammer.

Carlos Prates is going to expose Garry as a frontrunner – a fighter who can’t come back from adversity – and he is going to do so in devastating fashion. He will batter Garry early and often and outshine him in the stand-up. By the third round, Garry will be looking for a way out, and Prates will happily give him one with a body shot that crumbles Garry. A few follow up shots will ensure that there is no doubt that Garry is broken, and the referee will wave off the fight.

To put it mildly, Anthony Smith has not looked in championship form recently; does he have enough left in the tank to withstand the pressure of a knockout artist like Mingyang Zhang?

Petela: Absolutely not. This is a fight that makes you sick to your stomach. Certainly, most fighters end their careers on a low note, but a friendly, charismatic personality like Smith makes his decline especially difficult to watch. He may still have the same want and desire to compete, but his body is just too beat-up to perform at a high level. He is noticeably slower than he was just a few years ago, which is a terrible thing for a fighter who already relies heavily on his toughness to get the job done.

He is going to be a sitting duck in the cage against Zhang. He doesn’t have the speed to avoid the devastating punches coming his way, and this fight won’t last long. Because he is tough as nails, Smith will probably take a plethora of damage before his corner or the referee calls a halt to the contest. This just has the makings of a career-ending beating. It will be tough to watch.

Sumian: It’s pretty much impossible to disagree with my colleague. Nobody understands why this fight is happening, because it makes absolutely no sense. Smith deserves to have the opportunity to win in his last UFC fight, and this is simply not it. Zhang is going to finish him in the first round, unfortunately, and it will indeed be a tough watch. Wishing Smith a happy retirement and hopefully he doesn’t take too much damage in this fight.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: He is coming off a split decision win, but I believe Andre Muniz’s UFC career can end with a loss to Ikram Aliskerov. At one point, Muniz was one of the most intriguing middleweight prospects and started off his career on a really strong run. However, he suffered back-to-back losses to Brendan Allen and Paul Craig in 2023, and has not looked the same. He is also 35 years old, which does not help his case. Muniz will need an impressive victory to ensure the UFC continues to have him around.

Petela: Matt Schnell. The flyweight division has seen a resurgence in talent, and the longtime veteran is seeing the sport pass by him. He has lost three fights in a row, and was stopped in all of those losses. That’s not a good run whatsoever. If he drops a fourth consecutive fight, especially if he gets finished, his UFC run is likely going to be over.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Da’mon Blackshear vs. Alatengheili. Blackshear has won his last two fights by submission and he is poised to make it a third if he can figure out the puzzles presented by Alatengheili. It will be human chess match from the opening bell and while it may go the distance, this one will be both fan-friendly and highly technical the entire time.

Sumian: Matt Schnell versus Jimmy Flick should be on the main card and is my pick for Fight of the Night. Both of these guys have had it rough as of late, but always come to fight their hearts out. Schnell is on a three-fight losing streak and desperately needs a win. Flick is 1-3 in his last four UFC appearances and is also looking to bounce back. Expect both men to bring the heat and put on an epic flyweight bout.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Giga Chikadze. I think he is going to snap David Onama’s three-fight winning streak and hand him the first knockout loss of his career. If Chikadze fights smart and utilizes his reach and length, he will be able to keep Onama on the outside and eventually deliver a devastating kick to start off a finishing sequence.

Petela: Andre Muniz. He got back on track in his last fight, and I believe he is poised to make one more high-level run after faltering against two submission specialists in Brendan Allen and Paul Craig. Ikram Aliskerov is a high level Sambo competitor, but his hype train was recently derailed by Robert Whittaker. I believe that Muniz will enter this fight in a better head space and take advantage of Aliskerov’s waning confidence in his skills and abilities.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Parmesan bread bites from Domino’s. Simple, delicious, and not much to clean up. Perfect for a night where you are watching fights with a friend, who bails immediately after one of his favorite fighters gets clobbered and finished brutally. So, if you’re watching with an Ian Garry fan particularly, scoop up some bread bites, and you’ll be good to go.

Sumian: Some salt and vinegar Blue Diamond Bold almonds. This card is like these almonds. On the outside, it is just a can of almonds. However, once you take the first bite, you are overwhelmed with a mixture of flavors that are strong and bold. I think this card is going to deliver big for Kansas City and provide a memorable night of action.