UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev Preview and Predictions

The fight capital of the world is host, once again, to a huge night for the UFC. Inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the light heavyweight championship will be on the line in the main event as world champion kickboxer and current UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira takes on surging contender Magomed Ankalaev to headline UFC 313. Pereira has been the most active champion in the promotion as of late, most recently thumping Khalil Rountree in a fight that took place entirely in the striking realm. Ankalaev will look to utilize his offensive wrestling to get “Poatan” out of his comfort zone to try and take the championship belt.

In the co-main event, fans were initially supposed to see Justin Gaethje face off against Dan Hooker in a fight that had everyone excited. When an injury forced Hooker out of the contest within a few weeks of the showdown, the UFC scrambled to find someone to replace Hooker. Rafael Fiziev stepped up and will rematch Gaethje, as he looks to get back into the win column. The first fight between the pair was an absolute war with both men’s mental and physical toughness being tested. Gaethje would take home the decision win in that one and will try to improve to 2-0 against Fiziev this weekend.

The UFC 313 early prelims air live on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPNEWS at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

Alex Pereira has run through all challengers at light heavyweight; can Magomed Ankalaev put things together and topple “Poatan” on Saturday?

Sumian: Magomed Ankalaev is, by far, the biggest threat to Alex Pereira’s title reign, plain and simple. The challenger is extremely well-rounded and stylistically matches up very well with the champion. Ankalaev has not suffered a professional loss since his UFC debut back in 2018. Since then, the number-one ranked light heavyweight has defeated many of the top light heavyweights including Volkan Oezdemir, Thiago Santos, Anthony Smith, and most recently Aleksandar Rakic. His only real setback has been a lackluster performance against Jan Blachowicz for the vacant 205-pound title in Dec. 2022. This time around, he is motivated more than ever to claim the light heavyweight title and put his rivalry with Alex Pereira on full display this Saturday night.

It is truly difficult to think of a UFC fighter that has accomplished more than Pereira has in such a short amount of time. Since moving up to light heavyweight, the champion has defended his belt three times and continues to provide the MMA community with incredible Octagon moments. However, it is important to note that the current crop of contenders at light heavyweight is subpar at best. Nevertheless, that is not Pereira’s fault, and he continues to do his job, and do it well, with every performance. In July, Pereira will turn 38, and it is safe to assume that his days in the Octagon will come to an end sooner rather than later. Will be able to defeat the one man that many believe to be his biggest test to date?

This is probably one of the most intriguing matchups we have seen at light heavyweight in quite some time. The champion is a powerful striker and is capable of knocking out any light heavyweight that decides to take part in a kickboxing match with him. He will need to blast Ankalaev with leg kicks and utilize his reach and distance to stay way from the challenger’s pressure.

In contrast, Ankalaev routinely executes a near-perfect game plan and defeats his opponents in dominant, yet uneventful, fashion. The challenger will need to constantly pressure Pereira with clinchwork, takedowns and not let him find his striking groove. When it comes to predictions, the answer is simple. If this fight goes to the scorecards, I truly believe Ankalaev will have done enough to win and claim the belt. He will utilize his constant pressure and takedowns to frustrate Pereira and rack up enough points to win a convincing decision.

For Pereira to win, I believe he will need to knock Ankalaev out within the first three rounds. It would be silly of Ankalaev to stand and trade with the champion after his recent performances, and I do not expect him to do so. Despite the difficulties Ankalaev presents to the champion, I am going with the champion by second-round TKO. Ankalaev has never felt the power of someone like Pereira, and I believe that will be the difference come Saturday night.

Petela: Alex Pereira is not only one of the most talented fighters currently on the UFC roster, he is one of the most intelligent. Thus far in his career, he has taken on fighters who would happily oblige him on the feet where Pereira has the clear edge. He and his camp put off fighting Magomed Ankalaev as long as they could, and that will pay off now that the two are finally meeting.

Pereira is a student of the game – always happy to learn and improve his skills. Under the tutelage of the legendary Glover Teixeira, Pereira’s grappling will show marked improvement from when he first started his MMA career, when this fight inevitably requires defensive grappling on the champion’s part. Ankalaev is a good wrestler but he certainly isn’t of the same caliber as someone like Daniel Cormier, who would have been a nightmare matchup for Pereira.

Ankalaev will have a bit of success implementing his wrestling attack, but it will be limited. He won’t be able to keep Pereira down for long stretches of time, and, as we have seen time and time again, nobody is safe on the feet with “Poatan” at any point in a fight. I suspect it will be an elbow from the champion, as Ankalaev looks to close distance, that will do the initial brain rattling, and, then, a follow-up punch or two will seal the deal. The belt remains with Pereira once again, and this performance will give even more credence to his goal of being a three-division champion, and a future matchup with Tim Aspinall will be heavily discussed.

The co-main event is a can’t miss rematch; does Rafael Fiziev get revenge on Justin Gaethje?

Petela: Nope. Rafael Fiziev deserves a ton of credit for stepping up on short notice, but this is going to be too much for him in his return. Fiziev has been out of action for almost a year and a half after blowing out his knee against Mateusz Gamrot. He is probably in phenomenal shape after rehabilitation, but if there is one fighter who you don’t want to run into with a bit of ring rust, it is Justin Gaethje.

The first round in the first fight was when Fiziev really did his best work. From being out of action and taking the fight on short notice, I tend to believe it will take a couple minutes for him to get comfortable. Even if Gaethje starts a bit slow, as he did in the pair’s first meeting, a little bit of discomfort from Fiziev will make a huge difference. Gaethje will get into a rhythm earlier on in this fight than he did in the first one from a lack of firepower coming back at him, and that’s all he will need to land a meaningful enough punch to do visible damage. Like a shark smelling blood, Gaethje will pounce onto Fiziev and earn a first-round TKO without taking much damage of his own.

Sumian: I do agree with my colleague that Gaethje will win, but it will not be by way of finish. Despite coming off a significant injury, Fiziev is still as tough as they come. Both these fighters have already spent 15 minutes inside the cage with each other and are familiar with each other’s strengths and weaknesses. The last time they met, it was Gaethje’s experience and relentless pace that made the difference which landed him the last two rounds.

This time, I expect more of the same. Fiziev will probably take a round, but it will be Gaethje who wins a clear 29-28 unanimous decision. This fight should be fun, but I still believe there were better options out there to replace Hooker on short notice. Nevertheless, the UFC goes on.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 313?

Sumian: Rizvan Kuniev. Yes, I know I have been on a bold streak lately but hear me out. At this stage of his career, Curtis Bladyes is quickly approaching washed status. He has consistently proven he is incapable of winning big fights and has been on the wrong end of some devastating heavyweight knockouts. On top of that, he is simply not well liked by the majority of MMA fans. This is a huge opportunity for Rizvan Kuniev to make a splash and establish himself as a heavyweight contender which the UFC desperately needs. Thus, I am going with Kuniev finish Blaydes in the first round and officially introducing himself to the UFC community.

Petela: Justin Gaethje. He is going to pick up an emphatic victory against Rafael Fiziev, and it will be exactly what he needs to wipe the stink of his last performance away. “The Highlight” will once again have fans and pundits alike praising his talent to go along with his unquestionable toughness.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 313?

Petela: Rafael Fiziev. He enters this showdown with Justin Gaethje on short notice and on the heels of two losses. That, compounded with him being out of action for almost a year and a half after suffering a knee injury, and the deck is stacked against him in the co-main event. He will get praise for stepping up but three losses in a row is never a good look, no matter the circumstances.

Sumian: Magomed Ankalaev. A loss to Pereira will permanently shut the door on his ability to fight for a title again. The UFC is clearly not his biggest fan, and he lacks the star power to carry a division on his back. The biggest question for Ankalaev will be what is next if he does indeed fail to capture the belt for a second time.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: A third loss in a row for Armen Petrosyan probably sends him packing. He does have three wins in the UFC but has failed to be exciting and get fans to care about when he fights. I expect him to unfortunately suffer a third loss in a row and probably be on his way to a new organization.

Petela: King Green, formerly Bobby Green. He has lost two of his last three and his only win in that stretch was against an aging Jim Miller, who he couldn’t put away. He flat out looked bad in his last outing, getting touched up on the feet by Paddy Pimblett before getting submitted. If he comes up short against Mauricio Ruffy, which I expect he will, it might be the end of the road for the always game 38 year old.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal. Morono is always in fun fights, and Leal is going to come into this fight with a head of steam after getting absolutely robbed in his UFC debut. This will be a fun fight with a ton of activity and output from the opening bell.

Sumian: I wouldn’t call it a sleeper since it’s on the main card, but I do believe that Jalin Turner versus Ignacio Bahamondes is going to be fireworks. These two combine for 21 knockouts and are two hard hitters capable of standing and banging. I expect this to be Fight of the Night and probably one of the best lightweight fights of the year.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Alex Pereira has received six performance or Fight of the Night bonuses in his 10 fights in the UFC. That is absolutely crazy. I believe he will earn a seventh this weekend when he finishes Ankalaev in typical Poaton fashion.

Petela: Brunno Ferreira. He is going to obliterate Armen Petrosyan on the prelims and have fans in attendance and watching at home on their feet. Ferreira is coming off a loss, which will give the powerful Brazilian a little bit of extra motivation to get back on track and be will do so by sending Petrosyan to the land of wind and ghosts on Saturday night.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Doritos. This card looks to be top-heavy, but for those who tune in early, the prelims will have you addicted. Just like with a bag of Doritos, you plan on only having a handful and before you know it the bag is gone. If you’re on the fence about buying this pay-per-view, the early prelims will have you hooked and convince you to shell out the money for the main card.

Sumian: The movie Alien Romulus. For anyone that’s a fan of the Alien franchise, it is no secret that the last several films in the series have been expectedly and consistently bad. However, the franchise rebounded well with Alien Romulus. Despite looking like another stinker, the movie was executed surprisingly well. This card reminds me of something similar. Generally, thinner UFC pay-per-view cards such as this one are expected to be bad and end up being bad. UFC 313 will be Alien Romulus. It won’t look great on paper, but once the movie starts it will deliver.