UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev Preview and Predictions

One more fight card before the highly anticipated UFC 313. This one is back at home inside the UFC Apex, headlined by a pair of flyweight contenders.

Manel Kape meets Asu Almabayev in a five-round fight. Kape’s lone loss in his last six fights is a decision to Mohammad Mokaev, who frustrated the promotion enough to get released despite being undefeated. Almabayev may not be undefeated, but he is on a long winning streak, rattling off 17 consecutive victories since his last loss in 2017.

The co-main event is a puzzling middleweight matchup, with Cody Brundage taking on Julian Marquez, as neither fighter enters the fight with much momentum. Brundage is coming off a no-contest against Abdul Razak Alhassan, where he was getting pounded by Alhassan until illegal elbows halted the contest, and the referee and doctors ruled that Brundage could not continue. Marquez has lost three fights in a row. He lost all three of those bouts by knockout, with only one making it past the first round. This pair of 185-pound fighters both need a victory to retain some level of relevance in the middleweight division.

The event airs live on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

The last time Asu Almabayev lost it was 2017; can he continue his hot streak and defeat Manel Kape?

Sumian: Flyweight is in desperate need of contenders, and the UFC is running out of options. The current champion Alexandre Pantoja continues to clean the division out and assert his dominance, but his time is coming to an end, given he will be turning 35 in the next couple of months. Almabayev seems to be one of the most talented fighters in the division. He is a jiu-jitsu champion of Kazakhstan and Asia, 21-2 in his MMA career, and has quietly compiled a 4-0 record since joining the UFC. Standing across him will be the always outspoken, rash, and aggressive Manel Kape. Kape is currently the sixth-ranked flyweight in the UFC and has only beaten one ranked flyweight. This should tell you everything you need to know about the current state of the flyweight division. If Kape wins this fight, he will most certainly find himself fighting for the belt in his next UFC outing. If Almabayev wins, he will likely need at least one more win in the UFC before finding himself in a title fight.

There is no doubt in my mind that the UFC wants nothing more than for Kape to win. If so, he will make an obnoxious, yet prolific, call-out of Pantonja and likely set up one of the more anticipated title fights in recent flyweight history. A matchup between Kape’s speed and Pantoja’s power and aggressiveness would certainly be must-watch MMA. However, I am not so sure Kape gets past Almabayev. If he can get Kape to the ground and utilize his grappling, it could be a long night for the Portuguese native. The one thing Kape has going for him is that he has absolutely fought the stiffer competition which should help him be better prepared for someone like Almabayev.

This one is going to the scorecards, and Kape will win. Almabayev will certainly have success in this fight and get a few takedowns early to give Kape fans pause. However, the speed, durability and experience of Kape will come into play and he will end up taking the latter rounds and winning a clear decision. Kape will go on to fight Pantoja, and probably lose. However, the build up and promotion will be nothing short of entertaining.

Petela: I like few things as much as I like disagreeing with Andrew. He is wrong here, as it will be Almabayev who gets the win this weekend. Unfortunately, Andrew is correct that it will go the distance.

I don’t think Kape will be able to stay upright for long enough stretches to implement his game plan. It probably won’t be the most exciting fight on the card, which I think will exceed expectations, but it will be a clear example of how styles make fights, and Almabayev’s ability to keep the fight on the ground will dictate how this one plays out. He won’t be able to do enough damage to get a ground-and-pound stoppage, or force Kape to submit, but he will get a lopsided decision win and perhaps secure the next title shot by default.

Julian Marquez has lost three fights in a row; will he have made the necessary improvements since his last outing to pick up a victory over Cody Brundage?

Petela: What is Julian Marquez doing in a co-main event? I get that the UFC has to fill all these cards, but, even on this card, there are other fighters who could fill that spot on the card. I don’t think that he gets the job done this weekend by any stretch of the imagination. This will be a showcase for Cody Brundage, who needs a win himself. Brundage will get the victory, get the bad taste of the weird no-contest against Abdul Razak Alhassan out of his mouth, and move onto the prime of his career.

Sumian: This card is rough, no question about it. Since Jun. 2022, the combined records of Marquez and Brundage is 3-7-1. On top of that, all three wins come courtesy of Cody Brundage. Marquez has fought three times since Jun. 2022 and has been finished by knockout in all three fights. To put it bluntly, there is no reason why he should be in the UFC. The same could be said for Cody Brundage. However, I am going with Brundage in this fight due to Marquez’s current losing streak and low level of activity. This is a co-main event that should and will be forgotten.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: How on earth is Andrea Lee still in the UFC? She has suffered five losses in a row and is 2-8 since Sep. 2019. If she loses to JJ Aldrich, which she likely will, it is time to say goodbye.

Petela: I’ll say Julian Marquez. Not only has he lost three in a row, but his last two wins came against fighters who are no longer on the UFC roster. A loss in the co-main event will probably be the end of his tenure with the promotion.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. John Castaneda. Both of these guys are coming off of a loss, which typically makes for an exciting fight. Silva de Andrade is just four months shy of his 40th birthday, and the end of his career is near undoubtedly. This one has piqued my interest, and I think it worth tuning in early.

Sumian: Boy, that is a tough question given the quality of this card. However, there is a bright spot on the main card. The lightweight clash between Esteban Ribovics and Nasrat Haqparast is probably the best fight on this entire card. In fact, it should be the co-main event, if not the main event. Ribovics is coming off a Fight of the Year contender victory over Daniel Zellhuber back in Sep. 2024, and Haqparast is currently on an impressive four-fight winning streak. I expect this to the best fight of the evening by a mile.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: For the second week in a row, I am going to go with something on the bolder side. Luana Carolina will finish Montana De La Rosa via strikes and earn herself four straight victories. Carolina is someone to keep an eye on at flyweight, and she will continue to climb after another impressive performance on Saturday night.

Petela: Nasrat Haqparast. He is on a hot streak and that continues this weekend against Esteban Ribovics. Ribovics is also riding a hot streak, notching three wins in a row. This fight will be fun, no doubt, and both men have won at least fifty percent of their pro victories by knockout. Haqparast comes out victorious with a jaw-dropping knockout and scores some extra cash.

Pair this card with…

Petela: A new set of windshield wiper blades. At first glance, this card looks messy and unpleasant, just like your windshield in the rain with a scratched-up old set of blades. However, if you take a second look and get a clear view it looks much better. Name recognition might not be there for many of these fighters but the action will deliver some moments you are going to want to see clearly.

Sumian: The movie Click. I am not as enthusiastic as my colleague, unfortunately. In the movie Click, Adam Sandler’s character is able to utilize a time controlling remote to manipulate time for his personal gain. This card could use a remote like this and allow the MMA world to fast-forward and move on. There will be some exciting moments, but overall this is not one to tune in for from bottom to top.