UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley Preview and Predictions

The UFC year winds down this weekend with one more Fight Night card headlined by a pair of welterweight contenders, as the UFC lands back in Tampa, Fla.

Colby Covington has fought for the undisputed UFC welterweight championship three times and has come up short each time, losing via fifth-round TKO, a controversial decision to Kamaru Usman, and a lopsided decision to Leon Edwards. Those three fights are his only losses in nearly a decade. This weekend, Joaquin Buckley will look to hand “Chaos” his first non-title loss since 2015. A win would be huge for Buckley, making it his sixth straight victory and second in a row over a former title contender. He most recently won by TKO over Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson.

The co-main event takes place in the featherweight division, as Cub Swanson meets Billy Quarantillo. Over his last six fights, Swanson has gone 3-3 and has alternated wins and losses. If that trajectory holds true it would mean he will defeat Quarantillo. “Billy Q” is also alternating wins and losses, going back over his last eight fights. He too is due for a win so unfortunately for these two fighters someone is going to leave the cage having lost back-to-back fights for the first time in years.

The event, which takes place at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla., airs live in its entirety on ESPN+ starting at 7 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Colby Covington has not lost a non-title fight since 2015; can Joaquim Buckley hand “Chaos” a loss despite no gold being on the line?

Sumian: Since Aug. 2019, Colby Covington has competed a total of six times. That is approximately an average of 1.25 fights per year since that date. In addition, Covington has compiled a 3-3 record, and all three of his wins were against combatants no longer on the UFC roster. Even then, he faced all three of his opponents well past their prime. The fact that Covington continues to be headlining events is puzzling to say the least, given how poorly he has looked recently. Nevertheless, Covington has a name and it will be up to Joaquin Buckley to take advantage of an invaluable opportunity in Tampa this Saturday night.

Buckley is on a tear, like it or not. The former middleweight has successfully moved down to the welterweight division and compiled a five-fight winning streak against notable competition. His two biggest wins came at the expense of Vicente Luque and Stephen Thompson, both top-15 welterweights for some period of time. Buckley is a powerful, tenacious and established striker and is capable of finishing anyone who dares stand in the way of his power. If Buckley can defeat Covington, he is inarguably setting himself up for a top contender fight in his next UFC appearance.

At this point, what is there to say about Colby Covington? He is inactive, boring, and frankly looked horrible in his last fight against Leon Edwards. Covington famously assured the media that his performance was due to an injury but it is difficult to swallow after how bad he looked. For the longest time, the bringer of Chaos has been an elite welterweight capable of standing and grappling with the elite of the division. These days, it is hard to see Covington as anything more than a gatekeeper with an established name.

This fight is a gift to Buckley. He will be bigger, stronger, faster, and anything else above. Covington is 36 years old and the decline has certainly been apparent. Buckley is going to finish Covington brutally in round two or three and establish himself as a top five welterweight. There are many fun fights for the rising contender and he will continue to entertain despite his horrible callouts.

Petela: This fight is going to play out like most Colby Covington fights – a high volume of takedown attempts, limited ground and pound, nary a submission threat, bell rings to end the round. Lather, rinse, repeat. Call it boring. Call it basic. Whatever you want to call it, you must also call it effective. He is too smart to get in a kickboxing match for his ego against Joaquin Buckley; the only time we have really seen him do that is in the first fight with Kamaru Usman. Covington will play to his strengths, remove the threat of being knocked into a different dimension and score another win before a cringy post-fight interview.

Cub Swanson is 41 years old; does the wily veteran have enough left in the tank to take out a wild opponent like Billy Quarantillo?

Petela: Can we stop calling him “Cub” now that he is past 40? He is a legend, for sure, but we are long past the days where he should be considered an elite fighter. Billy Quarantillo has had ups and downs in the UFC, and, honestly, I have little faith that he will become a legitimate contender, but he should be able to outwork Swanson for 15 minutes and pick up a decision victory strictly based upon volume of strikes. It sucks seeing guys at the end of their careers not be able to do what they once could but that is part of the sport.

Sumian:What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: It has to be Colby Covington. I do not want this to sound like I am hating on the man, because I actually do like him and his style of fighting. However, the answer is solely based on his recent performances, inactivity, and lack of wins against top-tier competition as of late. If Covington loses to Buckley, where does he go next? Can you actually see him fighting someone in the No. 10-15 range? Because, I certainly can’t. Once he loses, he should target entering the pro wrestling arena where he will be a magnificent heel for many years to come.

Petela: Michael Johnson’s roster spot should be on the line every time he fights. I have all the respect in the world for anyone who has the fortitude to fight, but, as fighters go, Johnson has to be near the bottom on the mental toughness scale. He does not respond well to getting hit, doesn’t handle adversity well, and makes bone-headed mistakes that cost him his consciousness far too often. If he falls short against Ottman Azaitar, it should be the end of the road for “The Menace.”

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Drakkar Klose vs. Joel Alvarez. Remember when Klose had Beniel Dariush in all sorts of trouble? He has only fought four times since that night in 2020, but he has won all of them. Two of those four wins came by stoppage and resulted in Performance of the Night bonuses. That, combined with Joel Alvarez having two consecutive finishes, makes this fight a can’t-miss preliminary bout.

Sumian:The bout between Victor Petrino and Dustin Jacoby really gets me fired up. Both of these guys can strike for days, and they should put on a fun match that ends in a knockout or close decision with many hard-landed punches.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: I have a gut feeling that Manel Kape is going to finish Bruno Gustavo da Silva. I’m not entirely confident on this pick, but Kape needs a breakout performance after the dud he had against Muhummad Mokaev. Kape by third-round TKO after a stellar back-and-forth fight.

Petela: Dustin Jacoby. He needs a win. He has dropped four of his last five – though, he got absolutely robbed against Khalil Rountree – and his last outing was a rough knockout loss to Dominick Reyes. The former GLORY kickboxer will perform well with his back against the wall and hand Vitor Petrino his second straight loss.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Stuffed peppers – simple, not difficult to make, but an effective way to get plenty of protein and some vegetables. Just like Colby Covington in the cage. Nothing flashy, but gets the job done.

Sumian: The end of the “Reign of Chaos”. The new Mortal Kombat came out with an expansion titled the Reign of Chaos. In this storyline, the warriors of MK defeat Havik, Cleric of Chaos, once and for all and vanquish him to the realm of Chaos. Nerdiness aside, this evening will signal the event of Colby Covington. He has been anything but chaos in most recent performances and a defeat at the hands of Buckley will close the chapter once and for all. On a more serious note, this event is fun. It does not have the name value to attract the majority of casuals, but fight fans will be treated to a night of entertaining fights for the last event of 2024.