UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Preview and Predictions

This weekend, the world’s most famous arena once again hosts a star-studded event of UFC greats, with the heavyweight championship on the line in the main event. Seemingly scheduled and re-scheduled a dozen times, heavyweight champion and former light heavyweight king Jon Jones gets back into the cage for his first defense of the belt he won against Ciryl Gane. Despite his checkered past inside and outside the cage, many consider Jones the greatest fighter of all time. He can put a stamp on that legacy this weekend, if he comes away with a win over the most accomplished heavyweight champion in UFC history, Stipe Miocic.

Rattling off three title defenses in a row during his first reign as champion, Cleveland’s Miocic then did what no other fighter had ever done. He lost the belt to Daniel Cormier, only to reclaim it in the rematch. He then defended it in the pair’s rubber match. He hasn’t fought since Mar. 2021, when he was knocked out by Francis Ngannou, who vacated the belt when he left the promotion after his first title defense.

In the co-main event, another fan-favorite, who has been out of action for a while, returns to the cage. Michael Chandler was poised to take on Conor McGregor when “The Notorious” recovered from a gruesome leg injury. That fight kept getting pushed back, and, finally, Chandler had enough and needed to get back to action. He looks for redemption this weekend, as he takes on the man who defeated him to win the vacant lightweight championship in May 2021, Charles Oliveira. Oliveira needs a win, as he has dropped two straight. First, losing to Islam Makhachev with the lightweight championship on the line and, then, dropping a unanimous decision to rising star Arman Tsarukyan. The winner of this fight could stake a major claim for who is next to try and end the Makhachev era at 155 pounds.

The UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic early prelims air live on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the reliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPNEWS at 6 p.m. ET. The main card airs live on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.
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This main event between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic has been a long time coming; how close to the best versions do we see of both men and who wins?

Sumian: It is finally here, ladies and gent. The heavyweight showdown that nobody asked for, but one that the UFC wants more than anything on Planet Earth. Come Saturday night, we will watch two former elite fighters – who, at one point in time, were the best of the best – throw down for a belt that may or not be the most meaningful title at 265 pounds. The question is, who will emerge victorious?

Yes, Stipe Miocic is likely no longer the fighter he once was when he compiled a historic and elite title run between 2016 and 2020. Is Miocic as good as he once was? Probably not. Is he still a problematic matchup for most of the heavyweight division? Absolutely.

Miocic is one of the most accomplished heavyweights in UFC history and has faced the best of the best throughout his career. He holds victories of the likes of Daniel Cormier, Francis Ngannou, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Fabricio Werdum. His run as a stellar heavyweight is undoubtedly one of the best, and he will go down as a top-tier Hall of Famer when all is said and done. The question going into Saturday is simple. How much does Miocic have left in the tank after not competing in professional MMA for over three and a half years?

If this had been against anyone else in the division besides Jones, there is a strong likelihood that he would be able to utilize his experience, power, and wrestling to achieve victory. Unfortunately, he is facing the greatest MMA fighter of all time and will need everything and anything to go his way if he hopes to become the heavyweight champion for a third time.

Miocic has elite boxing, fantastic offensive and defensive wrestling, and he is extremely durable. He has continuously proven he can hang with the best of the best and looked good doing so. If he has any shot of taking the belt from Jones, it will take a Rocky moment to make it a reality.

What is there to say about Jon Jones that hasn’t already been said? He is the GOAT, plain and simple. This man has defeated and conquered every challenger in front of him and made it look easy on more than one occasion. However, he has noticeably taken a step back in the last several years and has not been defeating opponents in the dominant fashion that we were used to in his first title reign. Still, he has yet to lose and made quick work of Ciryl Gane in his heavyweight debut.

Jones has compiled an impeccable record against elite competition and is inarguably one of the most well-rounded fighters to ever step foot in the octagon. For Jones, a win over Miocic will give him everything he wants from his point of view and allow him to walk away from the sport as accomplished as ever.

There are many fans and media outlets that question the validity of this fight. With Tom Aspinall ready and waiting, it is easy to argue that Miocic has no right to be facing Jones this week. I disagree. Miocic has been a company man since day one and has competed against the very best of the division for years. This is his last and final chance to solidify his legacy against the very best the sport has seen. Miocic will need to establish his boxing early and earn respect quickly if he is going to win. The longer this fight goes, the more likely Jones will go into cruise control and be able to kickbox his way to a victory. For Jones, controlling the distance and using his kicks will be key to maintain control of the fight.

I really want to believe that Stipe Miocic will make this fun. I just do not see it. Jones will be able to do exactly what he wants and win a convincing decision to hold onto the belt.

Petela: This fight is like Mayweather vs. Pacquaio, the mixed martial arts edition. Five years ago this fight would have been the greatest example of MMA the world has to offer, now it is closer to two old guys trying to decide who is less past his prime. That being said, don’t think I would miss this showdown for anything in the world.

What stands out to me about this fight in relation to Jon Jones’ first foray into the heavyweight division is his weight. He is walking around 15 pounds lighter than he was leading up to his fight with Ciryl Gane. I could see that being an advantage because he will be faster, but Miocic is a talented wrestler and as strong as an ox so perhaps Jones will be outmatched in the clinch. I expect Miocic to try and close the distance as early as possible, avoiding the long range striking and eye poking of Jones. Miocic will successfully be able to bury his head into the chest of Jones and control the clinch along the fence early and wear down Jones. By the third round, fans will start getting bored but that is when it will get exciting. A half step slower because of all the clinch work, Jones will start getting caught by the crisp boxing of Miocic. Much like in his second fight with Daniel Cormier, that is when Miocic will turn up the heat. By attacking the body, he will force Jones to initiate the clinch and that will be wholly unsuccessful. Miocic catches Jones off balance as he tries to close distance and throws together an extended combination of punches that leads to the referee halting the contest. Stipe Miocic reclaims the title and gives Jones his first “real” loss.

Michael Chandler had success early in his first fight with Charles Oliveira before getting finished; can he even the score in the rematch?

Petela: It is hard to know what to expect from Michael Chandler since he’s been out of action for so long awaiting a fight with Conor Mcgregor. He relies heavily on his power and explosiveness so ring rust may not be as big a factor as it would be for someone whose path to victory is predicated on timing and precision. From all indications on social media, he has stayed in shape and looks phenomenally lean in preparation for this fight.

I think this fights starts out remarkably similar to the first fight, Chandler not allowing Charles Oliveira to get his timing right and into a rhythm. Unlike the first fight, I don’t think Oliveira will be able to withstand the power of Chandler and he won’t recover this time around. This one will end in the first round, probably via an old fashioned club and sub with Chandler rocking Oliveira with a huge right hand, forcing Oliveira to try and close the distance and Chandler will jump on a guillotine that forces a dazed Oliveira to tap.

Sumian: I have to agree with my colleague on this one. I see Chandler being able to come out strong, fresh and level headed. He will able to hurt Oliveira and find the finish at some point in round two. Chandler still has more to offer and will likely find himself fighting for the title in his next UFC appearance.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 309?

Sumian: Tom Aspinall and it is not even close. It has been impossible for Jones or Stipe to be talked about without Tom Aspinall’s name being mentioned. He is the future of the UFC heavyweight division and no matter what happens on Saturday night, this man is destined to become the undisputed king at 265. He will find his way to the title in 2025 and become everything that think he can be.

Petela: Stipe Miocic. Most pundits and fans alike think that the former champion has nothing left and that he is going to get steamrolled by a younger, faster, stronger fighter. On the contrary, Miocic pulls off the upset and rides into the sunset with heavyweight gold wrapped around his waist.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 309?

Petela: Tom Aspinall. He should be the one fighting in the main event against Jon Jones for a title unification fight but instead we get the fight we all wanted to see a few years ago. I am picking Miocic to win, against the odds, and I think with that result both men will retire. That means Aspinall will be the undisputed champion but he won’t get the high profile fight against Jones that he needs to become a mega star.

Sumian:What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Damon Jackson. He desperately needs a win this weekend over Jim Miller to stay relevant. Jackson has noticeably looked poor in the last couple of years and needs to get back on track if he hopes to keep his roster spot.

Petela: Chris Weidman. He may have picked up a win in his last fight but the story of that fight was his repeated eye pokes. The former champion has said he is taking it fight by fight at this stage of his career so it wouldn’t surprise me to see “The All American” leave his gloves in the cage if he comes up short against Eryk Anders.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson. This is going to be superb technical grappling. Miller is the UFC’s Iron Man and even in his 40s he is still an elite grappler. Jackson has had his ups and downs but he can find submissions seemingly out of nowhere even if he is behind in a fight. Especially with the New York crowd cheering on a local fighter in Miller, this one will have the Garden rocking and fans on their feet.

Sumian: I think Bo Nickal and Paul Craig are going to put on a show. I expect Nickal to win but Craig will have him thinking about submissions and consistently threatening. It will be a fun back and forth ground fight for as long as it lasts.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Chris Weidman. He will finish Eryk Anders in front of a hometown crowd and earn a much needed victory. Weidman’s days of competing are coming to an end, and a victory in NYC will be a nice cherry on top.

Petela: Bo Nickal. He is going to run through Paul Craig and nullify the slick submission skills of “Bear Jew” with his powerful wrestling. As he continues to climb the middleweight ladder this will be another feather in his cap and another check in his pocket.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Banana chips. Stick with me here because it makes sense. This main event is going to be sad, two legends past their primes squaring off for a belt that rightly belongs to Tom Aspinall. Sometimes, when the drinks are flowing and you get sad you tend to overdo it with the booze. Thus, have banana chips on hand as a good source of potassium and other nutrients to limit the hangover the next day. It is much easier and will draw less attention than unpeeling a whole banana in front of all your fight friends.

Sumian: Beef jerky. Beef jerky is not the best snack in the world. It is tough, but provides you with the stuff you need to keep going. That is what this event is. It needs to happen and be done for the world to move on. There is a ton of fresh blood in the UFC and once we are past the main and co-main event, we can finally move onto to bigger and better things.