The banzuke (sumo rankings) for the aki basho (autumn tournament) came out last week and now it’s time for the action to begin. The 15-day tournament starts this Sunday. When it’s over we’ll have our latest makuuchi (top division) champion.
There’s far more storylines involved in a basho than simply who will win the championship, though. Every wrestler on the banzuke is fighting for something. Below are five storylines I am particularly keen on this month.
1. Which ozeki will get over the hump first?
Terunofuji, our lone yokozuna, won the Nagoya tournament and looked very impressive while doing so. The oft-injured Terunofuji has been dominant in the ring whenever he’s been healthy enough to last an entire tournament. He’s only managed to complete three tournaments since returning from double knee surgery last year, but he’s won each of those tournaments. During his absence no single wrestler was able to step up and dominate the competition. Now that he’s returned it’s even more difficult for the wrestlers ranked below him to win multiple titles and advance themselves to a possible yokozuna promotion.
With Terunofuji likely to retire soon, a power vacuum in grand sumo is approaching. This will be a welcome situation for the ozeki (the wrestlers ranked directly below yokozuna). Our current two ozeki are Kotozakura and Hoshoryu, both are excellent young wrestlers who may have become yokozuna already if Terunofuji wasn’t around. But with Terunofuji on the scene, both men have had to play second and third fiddle for most of the past year.
The current Kotozakura, grandson of former yokozuna Kotozakura, is yet to win a top division title. Hoshoryu, nephew of former yokozuna Asashoryu, has just one top division title to his name. These two are developing a fantastic rivalry, but neither so far has been able to surpass Terunofuji in a tournament.
At the aki basho both Kotozakura and Hoshoryu will be in their prime and one might finally be able to show they can win a tournament that features Terunofuji. But which one will it be? I’m thrilled to find out.
2. How will Takakeisho react to his demotion?
Takakeisho lost his ozeki rank at the previous tournament. That’s a ranking he had held since 2019. Takakeisho is one of the ozeki who failed to capitalize on Terunofuji’s long absence from the sport. ‘The Angry Hamster’ is a popular character online, but the bigwigs of the Japanese Sumo Association have often bristled at his brutal style of sumo. Some JSA members may have been quietly delighted to see Takakeisho fall to 5-10 in Nagoya and thus lose his ozeki status.
Takakeisho can get his ozeki rank back at the aki basho, though. To do so he needs to win ten bouts. The last time he managed this feat was in last year’s aki basho where he went 11-4 and won the title. Since then he’s dealt with knee, back and neck injuries and has sat out during two of the past five basho.
When he’s healthy, Takakeisho is a ferocious competitor. He’s known for being one of the hardest pushers in the sport and his palm strikes could probably win him a Power Slap title.
At the aki basho I’m curious to see what version of Takakeisho we’ll get and whether or not he’ll be able to put together his best tournament in a year and return to the high status of ozeki.
3. Are Shirokuma and Onokatsu ready for the big time?
Onokatsu and Shirokuma are our new additions to the top division for this tournament and both of them have a ton of upside. Hot prospects often perform well in their debut makuuchi tournaments. Their low ranking means they are matched up with largely aging veterans and wrestlers who are yet to make their mark on the sport. So we could see either of these men do something special this time around. And that wouldn’t exactly be a surprise.
Last year we had Hakuoho come close to winning the Nagoya tournament in his makuuchi debut. Then this year we had Onosato finish runner-up in his first two makuuchi tournament before winning in his third attempt. And we of course had Takerufuji actually win the tournament on his debut, too. That hadn’t been done in over 90 years.
Onokatsu has had more of a meteoric rise than Shirokuma. The 24-year-old Mongolian was able to enter senior sumo at the makushita (third division) level in late 2023. This was because of his stellar high-school and college record. It’s taken him just five tournaments to reach the makuuchi. In Nagoya he went 9-6 in juryo (second division). Onokatsu will be easy to spot at the aki basho due to his short hair (he’s not been competing long enough for it his hair to be long enough to form the traditional chonmage hair-style).
Onokatsu is a graduate of Nippon Sports Science University. While there he was a classmate of both Shirokuma and Onosato.
Shirokuma entered senior sumo at the jonokuchi level, which is the lowest tier available. He won the title in his debut tournament in 2022. He was promoted to the jonidan and won the title there immediately after. It’s taken him a further 11 tournaments to secure his promotion to makuuchi. In Nagoya he won the juryo championship with a 12-3 record.
Shirokuma is best friends with Onosato and trains with him at the Nishonoseki stable.
I think both Onokatsu and Shirokuma could have big coming out parties this month.
4. Can Nishikigi and Hokutofuji prove their worth?
Two wrestlers on the opposite trajectories to Onokatsu and Shirokuma and Nishikigi and Hokutofuji. Those veterans had poor tournaments in Nagoya and it was a surprise to see neither demoted from their rankings for the aki basho. Hokutofuji kept his maegashira 13 rank despite going 6-9 (his fifth make-koshi or losing record in a row). Nishikigi kept his maegashira 11 ranking despite going 5-10. He’s lost double digit bouts in all of the past three tournaments.
Both Hokutofuji and Nishikigi were excellent a year ago, at the 2023 Nagoya tournament. Both challenged for the title in that tournament, eventually losing out to future ozeki Hoshoryu. Since then both have battled injuries and inconsistency and neither seems like a threat to win a title anytime soon. Honestly, neither seems like they will ever win a title given their recent form.
Hokutofuji can be one of the most exciting wrestlers in the sport, known for his high octane warm-up routine and his expressive nature. Nishikigi is less exciting, but he was known to be quite effective. At his best he was a brick wall that could not be moved – not even by Terunofuji (who he has a very good 3-4 record against).
Both men must be on notice at the aki basho and a bad losing record could easily see them bumped all the way to juryo.
5. Who will come through a very competitive juryo?
This month’s second division tournament could be highly competitive. There are a number of wrestlers in juryo this time around who are coming off injuries and should be fit and ready to fight for a top division promotion.
Most eyes will be on Takerufuji. After his historic yusho (championship) he sat out all of the next tournament. That earned his demotion to juryo. In the last tournament he reappeared for just two days (and won) to earn a 2-1-12 record. If he’s healthy he’s probably the front-runner to win this tournament.
Hakuoho, who I mentioned earlier, will also be itching to get out of juryo. He was the hottest prospect in the sport last year and reached makuuchi after just three senior tournaments. A shoulder injury, and surgery, saw him out of action for six months and he’s looked a little rusty since returning.
Ukrainian wrestler Shishi will likely score a promotion if he has a good record this month. He would be the first Ukrainian rikishi to ever make it to the top promotion. Other names to watch in juryo are recent makuuchi wrestler Shimazuumi, the small, but muscular, Asakoryu, and Chinese-born juryo debutante Daiseizan.
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