UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Preview and Predictions

It is International Fight Week, ladies and ladies and gentleman. The UFC returns to Las Vegas for an action-packed week featuring two title fights and a plethora of fights worth tuning in for. On Saturday, Jun. 28, the UFC heads to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas to decide who will be the new undisputed UFC lightweight champion of the world. The main event features a prolific matchup between former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria and former UFC lightweight champion Charles Olvieira. Topuria is one of the most recognizable stars in the UFC today and will look to make a splash in the ultra competitive 155-pound division this Saturday. On the other hand, long time lightweight contender and former champion Charles Oliviera will look to play spoiler and derail Topuria’s undefeated streak this coming Saturday.

In the co-main event, we have an incredible matchup between flyweight king Alexandre Pantoja and longtime contender Kai Kara-France. Pantoja is on his way to becoming a UFC GOAT and will look to continue this run against the always dangerous and entertaining Kara-France.

The remainder of the card features a number of exciting matchups. Brandon Rovyal and Joshua Van will meet in a main card thriller with the winner most certainly being guaranteed the next crack at the flyweight title. Also on the card is a lightweight clash between Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano which will surely deliver a fight to remember.

The early prelims air live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.
The lightweight title is vacant; will it be the former featherweight champ or the former lightweight champ who leaves with the belt?

Sumian: The former featherweight champion. I am sorry, but why is this fight happening? Do we really have any interest in seeing Topuria piece up a declining Oliveira? I guess, it is the best fight to make at this point in time but this should have been Topruia versus Mahkachev and nothing else.

Charles Oliveira is amazing, and one of the best talents in UFC history. However, he is fighting a man that has KO’d both Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. Yes, this happened at featherweight but both of those fighters are significantly better talents than Oliveira has been and it will show. Oliveira is fun and crafty, make no mistake about it. However, he has significant holes in his game and if the right person hits him enough he will fall apart.

I want to see Oliveira upset, it would be absolutely incredible. However, it will not happen. Topuria is in my mind the third best fighter in the UFC behind Islam Makhacev and Merab Dvalishvili.

I am keeping this short ladies and gents. Topuria by KO round one. Lets make Topruia and Makhacev happen.

Petela: Topuria is definitely the right pick for this one. This is a title fight that has be conflicted. On one hand, it should be very entertaining and these guys are two outstanding fighters but on the other hand I don’t think either one of them has earned a title shot. Ilia Topuria should have had to fight someone at lightweight after moving up from featherweight in order to get the chance at gold and Charles Oliveira has a recent loss to Arman Tsarukyan who is still yet to fight for the belt. I would much prefer it if this was a main event with a BMF belt on the line or something of that sort but nevertheless it should be entertaining. I think Topuria will be able to stay safe if it gets to the grappling realm and he will be the crisper and faster striker en route to victory.

Alexandre Pantoja has looked unbeatable in recent years; can Kai Kara-France do the impossible and defeat the incumbent?

Petela: Kai Kara-France is a likable fighter and he is fun to watch, no doubt, but I think he is severely outgunned in this fight. I’m puzzled trying to find an area in which Kara-France will have an advantage. Pantoja hits harder than “Don’t Blink” and he is just as technically proficient. If it goes to the mat, Pantoja will surely have the advantage. He will probably be the one taking the fight to the canvas but even if he does end up on his back he is dangerous and will either find an opening for a sweep or find a submission while Kara-France is on top. This one probably doesn’t make it into the championship rounds, I’m expecting a knockout win for the reigning champion as he takes out another contender.

Sumian: I agree with my colleague wholeheartedly. There is no nothing about Kara-France that gives me confidence that he can beat Pantoja. He is fun, dynamic, and absolutely entertaining. However, Pantjoja might just be the best flyweight of all time and I truly mean that.

Pantoja will have a considerable size and strength advantage and I truly believe he will be able to get Kara-France to the floor and lock in a submission. At this point, give Pantoja Merab, it is one of the best fights to make at this point in time.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 317?

Sumian: Is there a winner? I don’t know. This event somewhat blows for an international fight week. Yes, it features two of the biggest stars in the UFC today but it lacks the buzz and hype we are used to. I am going to go with Joshua Van. This guy is a stud and will probably hold the belt at some point. I am picking him to destroy Royval in dominant fashion and earn himself a title short.

Petela: Arman Tsarukyan. He’s got next in terms of lightweight title contenders and especially if my prediction comes true and Ilia Topuria walks away with the belt, we have a fresh matchup that will be exciting to watch. In my eyes, that is probably the most exciting matchup that could be made in the division and I favor Tsarukyan over Topuria as an equally talented fighter but with a size advantage. By beating Topuria it will not only raise the profile of Tsarukyan but it will majorly boost his star power. Therefore, with Topuria taking home the belt this weekend it is step one towards Arman Tsarukyan’s long reign as lightweight champion.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 317?

Petela: Charles Oliveira. His road back to the title will be a long one after dropping this fight. There are so many sharks in the tank at lightweight that by the time he puts together enough fights to deserve another crack at gold, he will be too far past his prime to beat the very best of the best. The most prolific submission artist in the promotion starts to take the slide over the hill this weekend.

Sumian: Renato Moicano. Frankly, I think everyone is tired of this gimmick. He isn’t elite in any shape or form and I expect Dariush to win decisively. Benny has had a tough go but he is still top tier talent and only lost to the best. Benny by 30-27 decision and will send Moicano to the outside of the top 15. Let me add, I love Moicano as much as anyone else, but he is vastly overrated.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Niko Price. Price is always fun to watch and he has that kill or be killed mentality. He is 1-3 in his last four UFC fights and I can see his path ending shortly if he is unable to grab a victory this weekend.

Petela: Beneil Dariush. He has dropped his last two fights and has a must win this week against Renato Moicano. All due respect, but Moicano is a notch below the last two fighters that Dariush lost to in Arman Taarukyan and Charles Oliveira. So, if Dariush loses this fight it will not only be the third consecutive loss but it will mark a loss to a fighter outside of the cream of the crop and probably spell the end for the longtime contender.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Hyder Amil vs. Jose Delgado. Amil is an undefeated prospect who has already put together a 3-0 record inside the UFC, with two KO/TKO wins. Delgado is another exciting prospect with only one professional loss and he comes into the clash after winning his UFC debut by first round KO. These two are going to swing for the fences from the opening bell. It is a must watch.

Sumian: Not sure why, but Jack Hermansson and Greogry Rodrigues really interests me. Rodriguez will be swinging early and often to land a crazy knockout and we will have Hermansson’s durability on display. I expect this to be a crazy back and forth fight ending in a split decision.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Joshua Van. Finish by submission or ground strikes into the title picture. This guy is a problem at 125 and I cannot wait to see him challenge for a title.

Petela: Taking a big swing here and saying Niko Price. He has dropped three of his last four fights and is not the same fighter he once was but somehow I think he gets the job done this weekend. It is going to look weird and might not be the most technically sound performance but it’ll get the job done and he will drop a few jaws as he snatches up a sneaky submission or lands a big punch from a weird angle.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Chicken tenders. Simple, delicious, but not quite worthy of a spot at the dinner table in a prime situation. That is the same way I feel about the main event. Fans will enjoy it, despite neither guy having a rightful claim as the best lightweight in the world.

Sumian: This international fight week blows, and there is no way to deny it. We did not get what we wanted and the UFC did their best to give us something else. This something else, is a drive through meal. Drive through meals are awesome and hit the spot at the right time. But, if you have the opportunity to do something else, you will always certainly take it. I think it will be surprising how many fans will be okay missing this card. It is not with the price tag despite the top tier talent in the main and co-main event.