UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano vs. Preview and Predictions

Sumian: I had a really good preview written and ready to go for the rematch between Makhachev and Tsarukyan. Unfortunately, Los Angeles and UFC fans have been robbed of one of the most anticipated title fights in 2025. With Arman out, Moicano will step in to do the unthinkable and defeat the pound for pound king and lightweight champion in Islam Makhachev.

To keep it short and sweet, the answer is no. Renato Moicano is not a top ranked lightweight and does not have the experience or tools to dethrone the champion. Not taking away anything from Moicano who is as game as they come and wildly entertaining. It comes down to the caliber of opponent he is facing and the fact that his wrestling and grappling are not on the same planet as the champions. Islam will score a finish via ground and pound or submission before the end of round two.

Petela: Well, things certainly got thrown for a loop. With Arman Tsarukyan out of the main event at the eleventh hour and Renato Moicano stepping in on short notice, this is going to be a very different main event in terms of how the fight plays out. Instead of a battle of grappling exchanges and insane scrambles we will see Moicano do everything he can to stay on his feet and Islam Makhachev trying to avoid the dangerous power of Moicano as he sells out to close distance and take this fight to the canvas where his pressure and technique will be superior. I won’t insult either man by calling this a striker vs. grappler matchup, they are both complete mixed martial artists, but the gameplan for each fighter will be clear from the opening bell.

Unfortunately for Moicano, he hasn’t been training for a fight with Makhachev and therefore will be at the disadvantage. Makhachev’s gameplan will remain unchanged no matter who he is fighting, it is always takedown to guard pass to submission or ground and pound. Initially expected to face a tricky submission threat in Beneil Dariush, Moicano’s camp was undoubtedly spent focusing on a finesse style of defensive grappling which won’t help him nearly as much against Makhachev. Kudos to Moicano for taking the challenge on such short notice and hopefully the UFC rewards his courage but this fight will be lopsided and won’t make it to the third round before Makhachev scores a submission win.

Merab Dvalishvili’s pace and pressure has been unrivaled throughout his UFC tenure; does Umar Nurmagomedov have the skills to solve the puzzle and maintain his undefeated record?

Petela: I’ve sat and stared at this question for several minutes pondering how I think this fight is going to play out and I am not at all confident that my analysis will be correct. That being said, I think this fight will take place largely against the cage with Merab Dvalishvili pressing Umar Nurmagomedov’s back against the cage landing a plethora of strikes that don’t do all that much damage. Long story short, it will look like a typical Dvalishvili fight against an elite opponent.

It is too dangerous for Dvalishvili to sell out fully looking to get the fight to the mat against Nurmagomedov given the Dagestani’s repertoire in the grappling realm. While it might sound contradictory, Dvalishvili is going to have a frenetically methodical approach to this showdown. He has to keep Nurmagomedov guessing while not overcommitting to closing the distance and winding up having position reversed and ending up on his back underneath Nurmagomedov. This fight will go the distance, it won’t be particularly exciting but it will be competed at a very high Level. Dvalishvili by unanimous decision, though his post-fight interview will be maligned by a chorus of boos from the crowd.

Sumian: The biggest question regarding Umar Nurmagomedov is his resume. Besides his most recent victory over Cory Sandhagen, the challenger’s UFC resume has been lacklust, at best. Still, he did manage to defeat an elite bantamweight in Sandhagen in dominant fashion.

On the other hand, the champion has fought the top tier of the bantamweight division on his road to the 135 crown. His last five fights are victories over Marlon Moraes, Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, Henry, Cejudo, and Sean O’Malley. Dvalishvili is purely relentless and probably has the best cardio in the UFC today. He has a dominant top wrestler and is capable of taking down anyone that stands in his way.

That being said, I am going with the challenger in this one. Like Khabib and Islam, Umar Nurmagodemov is likely the next big thing to come out of Dagestan and is poised to take over the bantamweight division for years to come. Nurmagomedov will win a competitive 48-47 decision victory and start a title reign that was destined to come.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 311?

Sumian: Payton Talbott. This will be a showcase for the rising contender who seems to have all the tools needed to become a huge star. He will make quick work of Raoni Barcelos and likely earn himself a shot at the top 15.

Petela: Well, I was initially thinking Arman Tsarukyan but that is out the window. Even in defeat I will say Renato Moicano. He will get a major moral victory by just entering the cage under the almost heroic circumstances, probably a big pay increase, and he should be able to call his shot for his next opponent. All in all, the loss will actually be a win.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 311?

Petela: Jamahal Hill. He has been quite vocal since getting his lights turned off by Alex Pereira. Fighters are usually delusionally confident, it is part of what makes them great and achieve success at the highest level. However, I think Hill has been letting his mouth write a check that his body can’t cash and he will get a rough reality check this weekend. After Prochazka knocks him out this weekend, it will be clear to both Hill and fans en masse that he is a notch below the best of the best at light heavyweight.

Sumian: The Los Angeles fans who paid tickets for UFC 311. This was arguably the most intriguing title fight in 2025 and fans were going to see an incredible fight in person. Now, they will have to hope that the remainder of the card can deliver.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Jamahal Hill. This is it for the former champion. He has been vocal, difficult, and quite delusional since his loss to Peirera. He has lost a majority of his fanbase due to his consistent bantering with fans and fellow fighters, and his constant excuses regarding UFC 300. If he loses to Prochazka, the door is officially closed on his title aspirations.

Petela: Jiri Prochazka. I am picking him to win, but if he doesn’t he might call it a career. He has been vocal about only wanting to fight if he can be the best and a loss to Jamahal Hill would prove that he is a step below where he needs to be in order to reclaim the title.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder. This is the sophomore outing for de Ridder in the UFC as the standout grappler notched a submission win over Gerald Meerschaert in his debut. Holland is a tricky fighter who is a black belt under Travis Lutter so he will be no picnic for the “Dutch Knight” on the canvas but he is also an almost goofy striker. This fight could go one of a thousand ways but it will certainly be entertaining.

Sumian: Grant Dawson versus Carlos Diego Ferreira is definitely flying under the radar. Both guys are exciting lightweights and always put on a show win or lose. I expect this one to get the crowd going and prepare viewers for the main card.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Jailton Almeida. He will submit Serghei Spivac in the first round and earn himself a nice bonus. Almedia is one of the last potential title challengers left at heavyweight and will need to make a run soon to establish himself as a top tier competitor.

Petela: Jiri Prochazka. The unconventional striker is one of the most mentally unique athletes on the UFC roster and his loss in the rematch with Alex Pereira made him very introspective. As someone who truly lives every minute of his life trying to honor the Bushido code, he will come into this clash with Hill as ready as he ever has been and will make short work of “Sweet Dreams.” Definitely a bonus worthy performance coming out of Prochazka this weekend.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Crab dip. The main event falling apart is a major letdown. We could have had an epic battle atop the card. The solution is the wonderful comfort food, crab dip. You can’t feel sad while eating crab dip, that is just science. Turn it up a notch and pick up some soft pretzel bites from Auntie Anne’s to use as your dipping tool.

Sumian: Thankfully, this is still a great card from top to bottom so get together with the crew, order some wings and pizza, and have a nice evening. The card will have moments and definitely deliver enough to keep everyone happy and entertained.