Sumo is back!
This weekend the hatsu basho (New Year Tournament) gets under way. The 15-day tournament will hand out the first makuuchi yusho (top division championship) of the year. There’s more on the line than silverware, though.
Scroll down for my top storylines heading into sumo’s 2025 curtain opener.
Double rope run could define next decade of sumo
At the Kyushu basho in November Kotozakura and Hoshoryu were neck-and-neck until the final day of the competition. In the last bout of the tournament Kotozakura defeated his fellow ozeki for his first top division title.
Kotozakura now has a chance to become the sport’s 74th yokozuna, following in the footsteps of his grandfather (who also fought under the name Kotozakura); the 53rd yokozuna.
Typically, an ozeki who wins two back-to-back tournaments is eligible for promotion to the sports’ highest ranking. However, the Japan Sumo Association has stated that if Kotozakura and Hoshoryu compete like they did in Kyushu and either win a title or come close to winning it, both could be promoted to yokozuna.
Should Hoshoryu receive that ultimate promotion, he would be following in the footsteps of his uncle Asashoryu, the 68th yokozuna.
The prospect of having two new yokozuna is an exciting one for sumo fans. Grand Sumo has had just one yokozuna since the retirement of Hakuho (the all-time leader in top division titles) in 2021. For much of the time before this retirement there had been at least two yokozuna in the sport, leading to exciting yokozuna vs. yokozuna duels to decide tournaments.
The lone current yokozuna, Terunofuji, has suffered with injuries over the last few years and missed more tournaments than he’s competed in, meaning modern fans have had to endure multiple tournaments with no yokozuna competing.
Terunofuji’s injury problems are likely why the JSA are eager to relax their criteria and force through a yokozuna promotion. That being said, both Kotozakura and Hoshoryu are deserving of such consideration. Both men are generational talents who are leagues beyond the majority of their contemporaries. They’ll need to show that on the dohyo (ring) this month, though, if they want to earn the traditional rope belt worn by the fabled yokozuna.
How will Terunofuji look after six months out?
The biggest obstacle between Kotozakura and Hoshoryu becoming yokozuna is the current yokozuna himself. Terunofuji has declared himself fit to compete in January. In doing so he makes himself one of the favourites to win the tournament. If he were to dominate the field, and Kotozakura and Hoshoryu weren’t able to push him to a play-off, both of those ozeki would need to go back to the drawing board with regards to their promotion chances.
Terunofuji has only competed in six of the past twelve tournaments. Of those six tournaments he only managed to complete three of them, pulling out mid-way due to injury in the other three. Each of those three tournaments Terunofuji completed, though, he won. His most recent win was the 2024 Nagoya basho in July. That victory was his tenth top division title.
Terunofuji had stated that his career goal was double digit championships. Now he has achieved that goal, many believe he is close to retiring from the sport. The 33-year-old, with two surgically repaired knees, is likely eager to quit so he can start losing weight and taking pressure of those knees. Many also believe Terunofuji feels pressure to remain in the sport for however long he is the only yokozuna. Yokozuna perform many important roles within sumo, as a lead figurehead in sporting, corporate and spiritual contexts. Not having an active yokozuna would be a bad look for the sport (and the current leaders of the Japan Sumo Association).
However, with Terunofuji signing up to compete in January (and thus potentially blocking two men from being promoted yokozuna) he’s showing us that he might be intending to stick around a little longer than we were expecting.
How does Kirishima respond to torrid 2024?
This time last year Kirishima looked in pole position to be the next yokozuna. He won two titles in 2023 and was the most exciting wrestler to watch on the dohyo.
2024 was a nightmare for him, though. A neck injury hampered his performances throughout the year. And at times he looked distracted and lacking confidence, especially around the time his mentor and oyakata (stable master) retired and closed his Michinoku stable.
The poor performances led to losing records in four of the six tournaments last year. Those losing records lead to Kirishima losing his ozeki ranking and then failing to immediately regain it. In the last tournament of the year he went 6-9, which has led to him being demoted from the sekiwake rank down to maegashira 1 (outside of the special named rankings that mark you as an elite wrestler).
Given where he stands today, it will be a long process for the 28-year-old to get back to his ozeki rank. If he fights like he did in 2023, it should happen. If he fights like he did in 2024, he’ll have no chance.
Is Hakuoho still the real deal?
21-year-old super prospect Hakuoho will be competing in the makuuchi (top division) in January for just the second time in his career. His first top division tournament was in July 2023, when he was just 19.
He reached the top division in 2023 after just three pro tournaments. That’s an astonishing feat and one only possible due to Hakuoho’s stellar record on the college/amateur sumo circuit.
When he entered Grand Sumo, it felt like he was a can’t miss prospect. That’s what his mentor, Hakuho, thought at least. Hakuho recruited Hakuoho for his Miyagino stable. Hakuho named Hakuoho himself, picking a similar name as a sign that he believed the teenager was capable of matching his own highs in the sport (including his record 45 top division titles).
In his debut top division tournament Hakuoho looked excellent. He finished with an 11-4 record and was in with a shot at winning the title until the very last days of the tournament.
Unfortunately, Hakuoho needed shoulder surgery after that tournament. This forced him to sit out of two tournaments. That absence meant he was demoted down to the third division. Around this time a hazing scandal broke out at the Miyagino stable. That led to the stable being disbanded. Hakuoho and his stablemates were forced to join the Isegahama stable (home to Terunofuji).
This situation likely contributed to Hakuoho’s underwhelming 2024, where he spend the year trying to get back to the top division. He faltered a few times in the year, but was eventually able to secure a promotion back to the makuuchi thanks to his performance in November.
Since his injury, Hakuoho’s status as the hottest prospect in sumo has been totally overshadowed by the exploits of Onosato (two titles and ozeki promotion in first year) and Takerufuji (title in first ever top division tournament).
Now he’s back in makuuchi he’ll be desperate to show he’s the real deal and deserving of all the hype he had back in 2023.
Who will be the maegashira surprise?
Last year only one maegashira ranked wrestler won a top division title (Takerufuji). The rest of the cups were handed out to a yokozuna (Terunofuji), an ozeki (Kotozakura) and a komusubi and sekiwake (Onosato on both occasions).
Of the other rank-and-filers Takanosho did the best job of threatening to take home a cup. He pushed Terunofuji to a play-off in July. And in November, he was in with a shot of winning until the penultimate day of the tournament.
Takanosho and Kirishima are the highest ranked maegashira wrestlers in January. Both could be factors in who wins this title.
Other wrestlers who could surprise the elites include Gonoyama, Oshoma and the aforementioned Hakuoho and Takerufuji.
Gonoyama is the forgotten man in sumo’s current golden generation. He beat Hakuoho to win a second division title in 2023, but was overshadowed by Hakuoho’s hype. Since then he’s been overshadowed by Onosato, Atamifuji and Takerufuji, despite quietly performing very well in the higher rankings of the sport. I personally believe he is primed for a breakout year in 2025.
Oshoma struggled in November, going 4-11. The young Mongolian had gone 10-5 in two of his previous three top division tournaments (he’s only been in the top division for four tournaments). Having been demoted down to maegashira 9, he might put up a big number in the first half of the tournament (when wrestlers compete against opponents with similar rankings). So far, Oshoma hasn’t done well when he’s been forced to fight higher level opponents. However, given his recent experience and possible development, January might be the first time we see him hold his own against elite competition.
More sumo on Combat Press
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