UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates Preview and Predictions

The show marches on as the UFC will have the 100th show from inside the UFC Apex this weekend, the last show before the much awaited showdown at Madison Square Garden for UFC 309. The main event is a welterweight contest with a lot of eyes looking to see if veteran Neil Magny can slow down the oncoming force that is Carlos Prates. Magny will be making his 42nd professional walk to the cage and has alternated wins and losses over his last eight fights. He lost his last outing so if the pattern holds we will see Magny victorious. Prates will surely do everything in his power to hand Magny back-to-back losses and build on his own momentum. The cigarette-smoking Brazilian has finished all three of his UFC opponents and is yet to see the third round. A win over Magny would likely put Prates officially on the map as a contender in the welterweight division.

The co-main event was supposed to be a bantamweight showdown between former champion Cody Garbrandt and Miles Johns but Garbrandt was forced to withdraw during fight week. Instead, the co-main event will see Ricky Turcious taking on Benardo Sopaj. These two bantamweights look to make the best of the opportunity to get the taste of defeat out of their mouths as they both enter this fight on the heels of a loss.

The event airs live on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Neil Magny might be the truest example of a gatekeeper on the UFC roster; can he halt the momentum of a surging Carlos Prates?

Sumian: Have to admit, pretty disappointed in the main event for UFC Apex’s 100th event. Nevertheless, here we go. The short answer is no. Carlos Prates is a formidable talent and will be looking to make a statement when thestwo face off this weekend.

We do not need to get into a breakdown of what Neil Magny has accomplished. He has been around forever and has defeated many great combatants, but also lost to top and rising contenders.

If Magny can drag this one out, he can definitely have a chance to win a close yet competitive decision. My vote is for Prates to evolve to his next form, defeat Magny, and find himself in the top 15 rankings. Checkmate.

Petela: Celebrating the 100th event at the Apex is like taking your child on vacation because he got straight C’s. The Apex cards are consistently mediocre and some of them require toothpicks to keep your eyes open. The same can be said about most of Neil Magny’s fights. There is no question that he is talented but he rarely ever delivers a fan-friendly performance. The only one that comes to mind, other than when he got steamrolled by Rafael dos Anjos, is his victory over Tim Means. That was a fun fight to watch.

I think Magny’s days of being a gatekeeper for the elite are over. He is 37 years old and has 41 professional fights. That is a lot of miles and a lot of years on a fighter’s body. This fight will be eye opening because of the ease in which Carlos Prates gets past Magny. It will signify two things, first that Prates is an absolute animal and nobody should want to fight him and secondly that it is time for Magny to be taken to the proverbial glue factory. He is past his prime and does not have the style for it to make sense for the UFC to keep putting him out there in fights with other older fighters for “fun fights” because Magny just isn’t particularly fun to watch.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Cody Stamman. He has been struggling recently and is on a two fight skid. He needs a win over Da’Mon Blackshear to keep his roster and he will do so.

Petela: Matthew Semelsberger. That is a tough one for me to admit since he is a Maryland guy and my sister’s favorite fighter since he went to middle school where she spent many years as a guidance counselor. That boring look into my life aside, he has lost three in a row and hasn’t seemed to have it in him to evolve to the next level. If he drops his fight against Charles Radtke this weekend he might have to spend some time back in the mid-atlantic on the regional circuit.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Reinier de Ridder is making his UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert, and I am excited. The former ONE Championship two-division champion will have a chance to take the UFC by storm and prove that there is truly elite talent fighting outside of the UFC.

Sumian: Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Denis Gomes. This one is going to be fun, and I can certainly see it winning the fight of the night. These two will scrap for all 15 minutes and likely go to a split decision.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Gillian Robertson. She will pull off a slick comeback submission and continue to prove that she is more than just a gatekeeper. Robertson is not top tier competition but she is better than most in the division. Saturday will only prove that further.

Petela: Gaston Bolanos. “The Dreamkiller” is due for a “holy cow” moment. The standout kickboxer has struggled a bit since making the switch to MMA but I have a feeling that he gets it done emphatically this weekend over Cortavious Romious and earns an extra $50K.

Pair this card with…

Petela: A heated blanket. Leaves are falling, and it is cold outside, but not quite cold enough to put away your outdoor fight viewing setup. So go ahead and give it one last hoorah. Maybe build a little fire to sit by, and keep yourself and your significant other warm with a heated blanket.

Sumian: UFC 100. Watch this event, take a break, and then watch UFC 100. UFC 100 is still one of the most prolific events in UFC history and for good reason. After this card, I can think of no better way to honor the number 100 than to watch the card that likely set the UFC on a path to bigger and better things.