UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Preview and Predictions

On Saturday, Sep. 14, the UFC will put on their first show at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Headlining the one-of-a-kind immersive experience at UFC 306, also known as Riyadh Season Noche UFC, will be a pair of title fights, as Sean O’Malley puts his bantamweight belt on the line against Merab Dvalishvili, and Alexa Grasso attempts to defend her flyweight title for a second time in a row against former reigning champ Valentina Shevchenko.

O’Malley first won the belt a year ago, when he scored a second-round TKO over Dvalishvili’s teammate Aljamain Sterling. He defended the title last March with a dominant decision win over Marlon “Chito” Vera. Dvalishvili was expected to eventually fight for the title, but had taken other fights in the meantime, so he didn’t have to face his friend and teammate Sterling. He is on a 10-fight winning streak after losing to Ricky Simon by technical submission back in Sep. 2018. Both men are looking to make a statement as the best bantamweight in the world.

In the co-main event, the saga between flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former longtime titleholder Valentina Shevchenko continues. In their first meeting, Grasso scored a huge upset victory with a fourth-round face crank submission in what would have been Shevchenko’s eight title defense. When the pair met again one year ago, Grasso retained the strap when the fight ended in a split draw. The two ladies coached The Ultimate Fighter with each coach scoring a victory in the finale. There will be no love lost when they meet for the third time in a row at UFC 306.

Rounding out the main card is a featherweight bout between Diego Lopes and Brian Ortega, who were supposed to meet three months ago, a lightweight match-up between Daniel Zellhuber and Esteban Ribovics, and a flyweight battle between Ode’ Osbourne and Ronaldo Rodriguez.

The UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili early prelims and preliminary card air live on ESPN+, ESPNEWS and UFC Fight Pass starting at 7:30 p.m. ET, followed by the main card live on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Dan Kuhl and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

Sean O’Malley has looked unstoppable on his run to becoming champion; what happens when his unstoppable force runs into the immovable object that is Merab Dvalishvili?

Kuhl: “Suga” Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili is a title bout that is a long time coming, and one that fans deserve. On one hand, O’Malley is a tall, lanky bantamweight with high-level grappling skills and a propensity for finishing his opponents with his fists. On the other hand, you have Dvalishvili who might be giving up a sizeable reach advantage, but he has a high-paced, hard-grinding sambo style that may not earn him many stoppages, but he can drag anyone into deep waters and dominate for as many rounds as the fight will go. So, the question is: which style will win this war?

I was originally inclined to lean toward the very slight underdog in Dvalishvili. He scores a lot of takedowns, and he is able to control his opponents with relative ease. He trains out of Serra-Longo, alongside former bantamweight champ Aljamain Sterling, and he is surrounded by fantastic wrestlers and brawlers. However, O’Malley’s size and skillset could prove to be a problem.

The Montana native has a special relationship with longtime friend, mentor, coach and former pro fighter Tim Welch, and he trains at The MMA Lab, alongside a bunch of badass fighters and head coach John Crouch. O’Malley is a finishing machine, and his size will be an issue for Dvalishvili on the ground. With Dvalishvili, you have to expect a lot of takedown attempts, as he will have issues with O’Malley’s reach, but the champs grappling game is one focused on crafty finishes. I think this will be the shortcoming for Dvalishvili.

Expect to see the challenger repeatedly attempting takedowns, O’Malley attacking submissions, and Dvalishvili putting himself in a precarious position defending, which will ultimately lead to a TKO win, and O’Malley retaining the title.

Petela: I do not think that Sean O’Malley will have an answer for the pressure of Merab Dvalishvili. That isn’t to say that O’Malley won’t successfully defend multiple takedowns. It’s just that, even if he does, he won’t be able to get separation and maintain any distance to do what he does best. If flies stuck to fly strips as well as Dvalishvili sticks to his opponents, there wouldn’t be any flies left in the world. I think Jose Aldo still probably has nightmares about Dvalishvili’s pressure and unwillingness to let him breathe. It just doesn’t make much sense how he can keep such a grueling pace for so long without getting exhausted.

What will happen is one of two things. Either, O’Malley will wilt under the pressure of Dvalishvili and succumb to a takedown that results in a violent ground-and-pound finish, or, in an effort to keep Dvalishvili away from him, “Suga” will get careless and leave himself open to being taken down and then ultimately finished under a violent assault of ground strikes. Either way, this will end before the fifth round, and there will be a new champion. Dvalishvili is probably not the most physically talented fighter in the bantamweight division, but he is the most dangerous, because he can take a beating and be unfazed and then ultimately break the will of his opponent with his pressure. The belt goes back to the Serra-Longo camp at the end of the event.

Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko meet for the third time this weekend; can Shevchenko finally defeat her latest rival and reclaim her spot atop the flyweight division?

Petela: Nope. The best days of Valentina Shevchenko’s career are in the rear-view mirror. She has had an absolutely incredible career, a quintessential first-ballot Hall of Famer. The flyweight division will never have a champion that is so far ahead of all the competitors as Shevchenko was in her prime. That head-kick knockout win over Jessica Eye still gives me nightmares. However, Shevchenko is 36 years old, and, more important, even than her age, are all of the years of combat sports experience. The human body can only handle so much before it starts slowing down.

Alexa Grasso is entering her prime while Shevchenko exits hers. The torch has been passed, and this third showdown will clearly demonstrate that fact. In both the striking and the grappling, Grasso will show that she is the superior fighter, and, while it will go the distance, the scorecards will be lopsided, and the rivalry will have a definitive ending. 50-45 across the board for Grasso, and this may be the last time we see Shevchenko fight in mixed martial arts.

Kuhl: While I do agree with my colleague’s assessment of the trilogy fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko, which is basically that it is on track to cement the changing of the guard, I can’t easily count out the former champ, and I certainly don’t seeing her getting swept 50-45.

Shevchenko has proven time and time again that she is always ready to finish a fight, while never being afraid to go the distance. In no way will I be shocked if this fight goes a lot like the last one.

In their first meeting, Shevchenko clearly underestimated her opponent, which led to her getting caught in a submission. However, in their second meeting, the former champ was a lot more dialed in. She had more overall control time, the significant strikes landed were nearly even, and she scored more takedowns than Grasso. However, Grasso scored the second-round knockdown and clearly won two rounds decisively.

Going into the third fight, both ladies have been able to adjust based on the first two fights. Shevchenko made big adjustments after the first bout, and Grasso came within a razor’s edge of losing the second fight, so we all know she is making adjustments for the trilogy fight. I do see Grasso coming out ahead on the scorecards, maybe 48-47, but will not be surprised if Shevchenko earns her belt back, potentially setting up a fourth meeting.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 306?

Kuhl: Diego Lopes. Brian Ortega already dropped out of their first fight a few months ago with a fight-day illness, and Lopes dominated Dan Ige for three rounds. With a full head of steam, and even more confidence, he will scratch Ortega off the list on his way to a top-five spot in the UFC rankings.

Petela: Manon Fiorot. The co-main event will put an end to the rivalry between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso, which will open the door for Fiorot to get the title shot that she deserves. A matchup with Grasso, who I believe will be victorious, is a favorable one for Fiorot in my opinion and I would bet an amount of money that matters to me that when the two women square off it will be the French fighter getting her hand raised and ultimately have the gold belt wrapped around her waist.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 306?

Petela: Valentina Shevchenko. She won’t sniff a UFC title after this weekend. Ending her trilogy with Alexa Grasso with two losses and a draw is not the part of her legacy she would want fans to remember. Shevchenko might just be the single most talented female fighter in UFC history, but, as she’s aged, the rest of the division caught up to her level, and she has lost half a step. This marks the end of “Bullet” as the cream of the crop in the women’s flyweight division.

Kuhl: Brian Ortega. Unfortunately, for T-City, he is on his way to gatekeeper status in the featherweight division. That is, if he can even make weight. When a guy comes off a nearly two-year break, after back-to-back losses, and submits a top-ranked contender, you would think he would be all business moving forward. And, weight should never be an issue at this level of the division. To have him miss weight, and then pull out with an “illness” the day of the first scheduled meeting with Diego Lopes showed a lack of preparation and respect for the sport. Considering he was possibly one bout away from another title fight, does this show a lack of overall interest? That has yet to be determined, but a loss to Lopes on Saturday should squash any chances of another title shot in the near future, especially with guys like Arnold Allen and Movsar Evloev sitting right behind him in the rankings.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Kuhl: Ode’ Osbourne is badly in need of a victory on Saturday night. He has been stopped in three of his last four fights, and his one victory was a split decision over Charles Johnson. If he can’t get past promotional sophomore Ronaldo Rodriguez, his career in the Octagon could come to a close.

Petela: There aren’t many fighters on this card who are at risk, but Joshua Van needs a win. He is coming off a loss, and, prior to that, he had four consecutive fights canceled. While he may not need a win to keep his spot on the roster, he does need one to stay relevant in the flyweight division.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Manuel Torres vs. Ignacio Bahamondes. I don’t see this fight going the distance and Bahamondes is not known to be in boring fights. The 27-year-old Chilean fighter will have a standout performance and Torres will certainly have his moments as well. This fight won’t disappoint and is more than worth tuning in early to watch.

Kuhl: The featured prelim showcases Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont, which should be a great fight. Dumont has won four in a row, and Aldana is 3-1 in her last four, with the only loss coming as a decision loss to Amanda Nunes in a title fight. Aldana is the No. 5 bantamweight, Dumont is ranked eighth, and both of them will be looking to get into position for a title shot in 2025. This should be an action-packed battle.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Kuhl: Sean O’Malley is going to stop Merab Dvalishvili, handing the Georgian-American his first knockout loss by way of TKO. This will certainly send him home with some extra cash in his pocket.

Petela: That is not happening, but that is beside the point. I’m picking Aoriqileng to upset the highly touted prospect Raul Rosas Jr., and he will do so in a thudding fashion. An early knockout to spoil the mood in the building will be enough to earn Aoriqileng some bonus money.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Since Dan laughed at me the last time I suggested Georgian takeout food, I will go ahead and avoid that suggestion this time around. While I do think Merab Dvalishvili will emerge with a win, celebrate the larger theme of this card with authentic Mexican food – Taco Bell. Just kidding, find a local place that makes their own chips and salsa to go with a nice carnitas burrito.

Kuhl: I imagine they eat a lot of steak in Montana, so let’s go big with a Tomahawk ribeye to celebrate Sean O’Malley’s big win, along with his coach Tim Welch. Both are Montana natives, so a nice medium rare Tomahawk is only fitting. And, if you really want to stick with the O’Malley-Welch theme, you might as well fire up a fatty, and let your appetite carry itself all the way through a couple pounds of perfectly cooked beef.