UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Preview and Predictions

The UFC’s summer world tour continues this weekend with a pay-per-view event from the RAC Center in Perth, Western Australia that features a number of elite fighters from the Oceania region. Like nearly all pay-per-view cards, the event is headlined by a title fight, and, this time, the middleweight belt will be on the line.

Tension between fighters is nothing new in combat sports. Heated rivalries have existed since the dawn of time. This main event features one of the most personal rivalries in recent memory. UFC middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis hails from South Africa and has proudly called himself as a real African champion. All-time great and former champion Israel Adesanya took exception to that, and, multiple times, the pair have nearly come to blows. This weekend, they get to do it in official capacity and have five rounds to determine who gets to call himself the real African champion.

The co-main event features a rivalry of a different sort. There may not be a ton of personal animosity between Steve Erceg and Kai Kara-France, but, because of the countries from which they hail, there is a geographical rivalry. Erceg is Australian, and Kara-France is from New Zealand. While on the global stage they may cheer for each other, when it comes down to it, there is almost a sibling rivalry between the two countries, and these two elite flyweights will duke it out with a plethora of passionate fans in attendance.

Also on the main card is an absolutely incredible lightweight showdown that features New Zealand’s Dan Hooker against Poland’s Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot is in search of his fourth straight victory, as he is on a quest towards the championship, having most recently defeated former champion Rafael Dos Anjos. Hooker has found a bit of a career resurgence, winning back-to-back fights after a stretch that saw him drop four out of five fights. A win over a contender like Gamrot would be a major reintroduction for “The Hangman” into the top of the lightweight division.

The UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya early prelims air live on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs live on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s edition of Toe-to-Toe.

There is no lack of bad blood between champion and challenger in this middleweight main event; does either man fight emotionally and abandon his game plan?

Sumian: The only thing that could have made this fight sweeter is if it took place in Africa. Nevertheless, this is the middleweight bout we have been anticipating for the last couple of years, ever since these two had their altercation in the Octagon at UFC 290. However, the tables have turned given Dricus du Plessis is now the champion, and Israel Adesanya is the challenger eager to reclaim his crown. This is one not to miss, folks.

Ever since du Plessis joined the UFC, I was confident the South African native would be fighting for a title. Four years later, he is the UFC middleweight champion and has defeated several top-tier middleweights to get there. He exemplifies one of the most exciting and tenacious fighting styles at 185 pounds and is always looking to pressure and finish his opponents. This will be his most difficult challenge inside the Octagon, and he will have a chance to prove that he is the true middleweight king going into the back half of 2024.

Adesanya is far more dangerous as a challenger than a champion. As a champion, he has the tendency to use his length and cruise to a boring, yet clear, decision victory. Challenger Izzy is completely different and is looking to take his opponents out with fury and precision. It is undeniable that Adesanya has established himself as the second best middleweight of all time, behind Anderson Silva, and a third title reign may earn him the top spot if he can successfully capture the title yet again and defend his belt.

I am not going to waste time talking about the history of both combatants. Both are accomplished and clearly two of the top five best middleweights on Earth as of 2024. For DDP, the game plan is simple, yet difficult. He will need to consistently pressure Adesanya and not give him any room to throw flashy kicks, jabs, and other weapons at range. Du Plessis needs to make this fight as uncomfortable as possible for the challenger in order to negate his best weapons. The blueprint is precisely what Sean Strickland did to Adesanya back in Sep. 2023 to claim the title in extraordinary dominance. If the champion can consistently pressure and throw combinations inside of Izzy’s range, he can certainly win and potentially finish Adesanya within the distance.

For Adesanya, the dog needs to come out in this fight. Trying to win a kickboxing match against the champion is simply not going to be enough. Du Plessis is too ferocious and will be pushing the pace as much as he can to assert dominance. Adesanya will need to use the range to fire off counter combinations swiftly and effectively in order to find an opening to hurt the champion and finish him. If he is unable to do so, then it will result in a disappointing performance.

Everything tells me that du Plessis is going to win this fight. However, my heart tells me differently. We have seen the ferociousness that Adesanya brings into the Octagon when he is the challenger, and the bad blood will only fuel his desire to put du Plessis down and prove he is still the best in the world. At some point between rounds two and three, Adesanya will be able to find an opening and fire off an epic counter-hook that stuns the champion. The challenger will chase him down and continue to fire off kicks and punches until the referee has seen enough and calls the fight. Adesanya will become a three-time middleweight champion and likely face the winner of Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev in 2025.

Petela: Israel Adesanya is arguably the fighter with the most talent in the history of the middleweight division. At his best, he made other great fighters look mediocre. He destroyed Robert Whittaker in their first fight, and he absolutely broke the brain of Paulo Costa who hasn’t been the same since getting dominated by Adesanya. However, that guy isn’t making the walk to the Octagon this weekend.

Not that Adesanya is totally washed up – he is still very talented – but he isn’t the same fighter he was a few years ago. Whether it is age, personal issues, or something else, he has gone from being head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the division to running stride-in-stride with the front of the pack. When he was clearly so much better than everyone else he fought, he never fought emotionally. He was supremely technical, even when he was so much better than his opponents that he probably did not have to be in order to have success. Now that he has come back to the pack, he can’t afford to fight with emotion, and I think this is a rare fight where we see that happen.

Dricus du Plessis is under Adesanya’s skin in a different way than his other rivals. He has bothered him even more than Sean Strickland did, which is a bizarre thing to even type, but it is true. I think the lumbering style of du Plessis will cause problems for Adesanya, who will be trying to remove du Plessis’s head from his neck with every strike. After two rounds of frustration, Adesanya will get clipped with an unorthodox punch and find himself on his back with the South African champion dropping bombs onto his face. Third-round TKO for du Plessis who retains his title and probably has a Strickland rematch in his future. Adesanya will never wear UFC gold again.

Steve Erceg came up short in his title bid the last time he fought; can he win this battle of Oceania and defeat his Kiwi opponent Kai Kara-France?

Petela: This is going to be a fun fight, and the answer is yes, Steve Erceg can win this fight. He will do it by decision, but it will be a clear-cut victory. Erceg is going to prove himself to be among the elite flyweights for several years to come. Kai Kara-France is just one notch below elite. He is very good, just not great. He has the ability, on his best night, to compete with the elite fighters, but he simply is not talented enough to beat them. It is hard to put your finger on what exactly he lacks, but, when he has faced the best of the best, he comes up short. He is almost a good enough grappler and almost a good enough striker, but he doesn’t have that ace in the hole to pull off wins of the highest level when necessary. This showdown will have plenty of fun scrambles and a lot of extended striking exchanges, with Erceg getting the better of the bulk of them.

Sumian: If Steve Erceg had another year of experience prior to fighting Pantoja, I am certain his chances of beating the champion would increase exponentially. Nevertheless, he put on a fantastic fight, but he did not have enough for the more experienced Pantoja. For Kai Kara-France, a win is absolutely necessary if he wants to stay relevant in an improving flyweight division with several contenders on the rise.

The experience advantage goes to Kara-France, but not by much. Overall, he has generally been defeated by the better fighters in the division including Brandon Royval, Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi. France’s strengths have always been his striking and speed, but he will be evenly matched when facing Erceg. France is a darling fan-favorite, but he will struggle in this fight. Erceg will be able to carry out his game plan and win a unanimous decision or perhaps finish Kara-France in the later rounds. I firmly believe Erceg will be a flyweight champion at some point in his career, and he will only get better with every fight.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 305?

Sumian: The easy answer is Israel Adesanya, but, instead, let’s go with Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot is not exciting by any means, but he will execute a perfect game plan to defeat Dan Hooker by decision. Gamrot is the fifth-ranked lightweight and will find himself in a number-one contender fight in his next outing. Ahead of him are Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, and Charles Oliveira. All three men have been in the title picture for some time now with multiple opportunities. If Gamrot can secure a bout with one of the above and win, he will be fighting for a title in 2025.

Petela: Tai Tuivasa. It will be shoey city after he snaps his losing streak and finishes Jairzinho Rozenstruik in devastating fashion. “Bam Bam” needs a win in the worst way, and there is no better way to do it than by knockout in front of a friendly crowd. With one standout performance, he will reinsert himself into the conversation for main event fights against big names, and he could find his way back into title contention in the topsy-turvy heavyweight division.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 305?

Petela: Dan Hooker. He has won two fights in a row and seems to be regaining some momentum. Unfortunately, that is going to come to a screeching halt this weekend. He is going to get absolutely clobbered by Mateusz Gamrot, and all of that momentum will go out the window. It will put Hooker at the back of a long line of contenders, and, at 34 years old, he probably doesn’t have the time or talent to rebuild himself once again into a legitimate threat for the belt.

Sumian: Tai Tuivasa. The once surging heavyweight is on a four-fight losing streak but continues to fight the best heavyweights on the roster. However, he will suffer his fifth straight loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik and fall further down a mediocre heavyweight roster.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: It is surprising to see Hebert Burns still on the UFC roster given he has lost three in a row by way of knockout. This probably has more to do with his brother being on the roster, but he is in desperate need of a victory this coming Saturday. If Burns suffers a fourth straight loss, which is very likely, he will probably find himself looking for a new home.

Petela: Ricardo Ramos. When he landed that spinning hellbow that rearranged the jaw of Aiemann Zahabi, I thought Ramos would turn into a superstar. I was wrong. He really never gained his footing and has amassed a somewhat pedestrian 7-5 record inside the UFC. It’s not terrible, but he has lost three of his last four fights, and, with all due respect to Zubaira Tukhugov, Charles Jourdain, and Julian Erosa, he isn’t losing to the best fighters in the division. If he drops a third straight fight, it could be time for him to pack his bags, as he will have a pink slip waiting for him after the fight.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos. These two women are on opposite trajectories. O’Neill went from an undefeated prospect to all of a sudden looking to stop a two-fight skid. Santos is operating with a full head of steam, having won five fights in a row and all three of her UFC bouts. These two flyweights will look to prove that they are the top talent in the next wave of women at 125 pounds, so not only will they both be looking to secure a win, but also to make a statement.

Sumian: Song Kenan and Ricky Glenn are at the bottom of this card, but is it definitely a banger. These two combine for 34 career finishes and will deliver an explosive bout to get things going in the early prelims. It will be interesting to see how Glenn performs at welterweight after suffering two back to back first round knockout losses while competing at 155 pounds.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Jairzinho Rozenstruik. I just feel bad for Tuivasa at this point. Props to him for continuing to fight the best of the best he will likely suffer a vicious knockout loss to Rozenstruik, which will earn the latter a well deserved bonus.

Petela: “The Leech.” Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling we see something special from Li Jingliang against Carlos Prates. He hasn’t fought since 2022, but, rather than ring rust, I think we see a refreshed Li, and he slows down the momentum of Prates.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Bud Light Lime. Crisp, refreshing, and you can have 15 or so before it starts to take a toll on your vision. This is a fight card that you’re going to want to be alert for all the way through, so lay off the hard stuff and make sure to eat something as well. As a Marylander, my recommendation is to snag yourself a dozen steamed crabs and crack them open as you enjoy the fights.

Sumian: Aussie meat pie. Like the Aussie meat pie, this fight card is heavy, filling and delicious. There will be several awesome moments throughout the evening, and the action will only increase once the main card comes along. Be prepared for an evening we have all been waiting for.