UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales Preview and Predictions

After losing three fights in a row, Gilbert Burns needs a win in the worst way. The 38-year-old once challenged for the division’s championship and almost won by first-round knockout. Things have gone steadily downhill from there, and his title aspirations are all but gone. However, a win over Morales would remind the other contenders in the division that “Durinho” is still someone to be reckoned with at 170 pounds. Michael Morales has been a world-beater since joining the UFC. He has won all five of his UFC fights, three of them by knockout. With wins over veterans like Neil Magny and Max Griffin, notching a victory over a former title challenger in Burns would be a major feather in his cap.

The co-main event is a light heavyweight fight with longtime standout Paul Craig taking on Rodolfo Bellato. A majority draw in his last fight, Bellato could use a standout performance against a veteran like Craig in order to bolster his profile with fans and pundits alike. Craig needs a win to stay relevant, he has lost three in a row just like the headliner Gilbert Burns.

UFC Vegas 106 airs live on ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Gilbert Burns is entering this showdown after three straight losses; can he right the ship and hand Michael Morales his first career loss?

Sumian: Not so long ago, Gilbert Burns was undoubtedly a top-five welterweight capable of beating anyone in the division. Unfortunately, those days are long gone. The Brazilian is on a three-fight losing streak and is entering this fight at 38 years old. Nevertheless, Burns is a tough opponent for any welterweight, given his experience and resilience. On the other hand, Michael Morales is coming into this fight undefeated, young and hungry to take the Brazilian’s spot in the top 10 of the welterweight division. This is a classic veteran-versus-prospect showdown and fitting for a UFC Apex main event.

Burns’ striking has improved significantly since his return to welterweight. He has been able to stand and trade with some of the division’s best over the last five years, but his best skill remains his ability to grapple at an elite level. Morales is an elite striker, without question. He will have a size, height and whopping eight-inch reach advantage over Burns. If Burns is smart, he will do everything possible to get this fight to the ground where he can negate the advantages Morales has on the feet.

Unfortunately, I do not see this going well for Burns. This is going to be a showcase moment for Morales. He will light up Burns on the feet and cause some serious damage in Round 1. Burns will be able to tough it out and survive the round while putting his heart on display. In Round 2, Morales will continue his onslaught of combinations and kicks before overwhelming Burns and earning a TKO victory. Morales still needs to develop, but he is going to be a problem at 170 for a very long time.

Petela: A crossroads fight if ever there was one, this could be disastrous for Gilbert Burns. He is going to be the older, slower, less durable fighter in this matchup. That is a recipe for disaster. Not only will Michael Morales be the better fighter overall, he will be the more dangerous man at any moment.

It is hard to write off Burns, because he is a world-class grappler and, if he gets the fight to the mat, he can put anyone in a world of trouble. Morales has one big responsibility, stay off of his back. If he does that, which I presume he will, this will be the type of beating that forces a fighter into retirement. There are big things ahead for Morales, and the glory days are over for Burns.

Paul Craig also enters this weekend’s event with three losses in a row; how does he fare against Rodolfo Bellato?

Petela: There is no logical reason for this opinion, but I feel some Scottish magic about to happen. Paul Craig fights typically all start the same way – he gets the tar beaten out of him. From there, it’s a gamble on whether he will be able to pull off something sneaky from his back, or he will get his head played like the bongos.

It is simply a gut feeling that I am willing to bet on, but I think Craig gets the job done in the first round. He will get dropped, of course, but he will go ahead and clear the cobwebs long enough to recover, and, then, in an instant, he will be tricking Bellato into a dangerous position and forcing the submission, probably by triangle.

Sumian: I am not sure why this fight is the co-main event, but that is neither here nor there. Paul Craig is awesome, but, at this point in his career, he is pretty washed. He is 1-5 in his last six UFC outings and seems to be slowing with each walk to the Octagon. He is always capable of pulling off a thrilling submission, but that has not happened in a while, and I do not expect it to happen come Saturday night. Rodolfo Bellato definitely has the potential to make a splash in the putrid light heavyweight division. 205 is in desperate need of contenders, and the Brazilian is a powerhouse finisher and is entering the prime of his MMA career. I expect him to avoid the desperate submission attempts of Craig and finish him with strikes before the end of Round 2.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: It has to be Luana Pinheiro. The Brazilian started off hot in her UFC campaign and compiled a 3-0 record at the expense of Randa Markos, Sam Hughes, and Michelle Waterson-Gomez. Since then, she has suffered three back-to-back losses. Granted, the competition significantly improved in her last three fights, but she is in desperate need of a win. I expect her to get back on track this weekend and defeat Tecia Pennington by unanimous decision.

Petela: Gilbert Burns. Three in a row in the loss column, plus a hellacious beating at the hands of an up-and-coming prospect, it will be time for the submission ace to hang up the gloves.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: That is a tough question for this fight card. Not a lot of fights on the prelims about which I think fans should be particularly excited. Jared Gordon is always fun to watch, so I’ll go with his clash against Thiago Moises. Two fighters who are well-rounded and can operate in a variety of styles, but who always bring pressure, this fight is worth tuning in early to check out.

Sumian: The middleweight matchup between Nursulton Ruziboev and Dustin Stoltzfus should deliver some noteworthy action. Both are finishers and coming off knockout victories. I expect both of them to swing early and often.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Julian Erosa. The former TUF competitor is on a three-fight winning streak, all by way of knockout or submission. I think he will finish Melquizael Costa with a slick submission and earn himself a well deserved bonus.

Petela: Sodiq Yusuff. He is fighting at lightweight this weekend and I think his power will be a difference maker. He is going to clobber Mairon Santos and more than earn an extra $50K.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Something you’ve never tried before. It will give you and your pals something to talk about while you watch a lot of boring fights. This card is not only largely devoid of relevant fights outside of the main event, the matchups just aren’t enticing even for under-the-radar fights.

Sumian: Hall pass. This is probably one of the worst, if not the worst, lineup for a UFC Apex in some years. There really aren’t many compelling or meaningful matchups to be interested in besides the main event. The night will belong to Michael Morales. He will finish Burns and announce himself as a serious threat to the 170-pound crown. As a result, let’s go with some Ecuadorian ceviche to celebrate the face of Ecuadorian MMA.