UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady Preview and Predictions

From Las Vegas to London we go, as the UFC travels across the pond for a Fight Night inside the O2 Arena with welterweight title contenders closing out the show.

Former champion Leon Edwards is looking to get back into the win column and earn a shot at getting his belt back. Standing in his way is Sean Brady, a gritty Philadelphian who is also looking for a shot at the belt. Both of these men have their eyes on Belal Muhammad, who took Edwards’ belt and also handed Brady his lone professional loss. A win by either fighter could just earn him that title showdown and shot at redemption against Muhammad, though Shavkat Rakhmonov is seemingly at the head of the line.

Light heavyweights collide in the co-main event where another former champion will be in action. Jan Błachowicz went to a draw with current champion Magomed Ankalaev, and neither man was able to secure the vacant title in that fight. He also dropped a split decision to former champion Alex Pereira and has been angling for a rematch against “Poatan” since that fight. His opponent is a rising star in the light heavyweight division, Carlos Ulberg, who comes from an extremely high-level kickboxing background. A win over Błachowicz would be a major feather in the cap of Ulberg, who has title aspirations of his own.

The event airs live in its entirety on ESPN+ starting at 12 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.

Leon Edwards struggled with the wrestling-heavy game plan of Belal Muhammad; will he have made the necessary adjustments to topple Sean Brady?

Sumian: This is a fantastic opportunity for both fighters. For Edwards, it is a chance to take out a rising contender in Sean Brady, while reminding fans that he is still a top-tier welterweight. For Brady, a win over Edwards easily puts him one fight away from earning a title shot at the welterweight throne, which is in desperate need of new faces. The million-dollar question will be answered in front of the roaring London crowd this weekend.

It is so difficult to get excited about Edwards. The former UFC welterweight champion finds himself in a difficult spot after losing his title to Belal Muhammad in Jul. 2024. Muhammad consistently utilized his wrestling and clinchwork to win a lopsided decision, and Edwards had little to offer in regards to defense or offense. Now, he finds himself on home soil fighting one of the more dangerous contenders at welterweight in Sean Brady.

Despite winning the title in incredible fashion, Edwards has failed to stay interesting or exciting. He generally wins uneventful decisions using his crisp and precise striking. Beyond his stunning head-kick knockout over Kamuru Usman to win the title, Edwards simply hasn’t done enough to get people to buy into his career. In addition, he seems to shut down once the fight is not going his way and falls back into survival mode. Edwards is still one of the most skilled welterweights in the world and is capable of beating top-tier talent when he is on mentally. A win over Brady does not necessarily put him back into title contention, but it certainly puts him in the realm of a title eliminator fight.

I truly think there is a possibility that Sean Brady is the third best welterweight in the world behind Belal Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Brady is an extremely talented grappler – strong, top-heavy, and has improved his striking drastically since the beginning of his career. His one professional loss is to the champion, and he seems to have learned and improved significantly from that fight. Brady is currently riding a two-fight winning streak at the expense of Kelvin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns. A win over Edwards will undoubtedly set Brady up for a title eliminator bout in his next UFC appearance.

I just do not see how this goes well for Edwards. This is probably the second- or third-worst matchup for him stylistically in the division. Brady has a lot of similarities to Muhammad and is capable of finishing fights via submission or ground strikes. Unfortunately for Edwards, this will be a similar story to Jul. 2024. Brady will be able to pressure, outmuscle and control Edwards, and he will eventually lock up a submission or TKO victory on the ground. Edwards will do his best to survive and throw off strikes when can, but it will not be enough to keep the hungry Brady at bay.

Petela: I have to agree with Andrew’s assessment of this fight. The matchup just isn’t a good one for Leon Edwards. Kudos to him for taking the toughest fight he could in order to get a chance to get his belt back but this isn’t a gamble that will pay off for the former champion.

Sean Brady might just be the strongest fighter in the welterweight division. When he gets his hands on someone, it is almost automatic that he is getting the takedown or at least beating them up in the clinch. That will be his game plan this weekend – get a hold of Edwards and don’t give him any space to operate. Once they are in tight quarters, it will be all offense from Brady and all defense from Edwards. Late round TKO from Brady, likely by ground-and-pound after he forces Edwards to wilt under his immense pressure.

Carlos Ulberg has only one professional loss; can he pick up the biggest win of his career over Jan Błachowicz?

Petela: Jan Błachowicz had a short prime, but, when he was at his best, he was damn good. He is 42 years old now, and, while he still has that legendary Polish Power, he has lost half a step. For a lumbering fighter like Błachowicz, that means a lot more than a fighter who is naturally more fleet-of-foot.

Ulberg is a precision striker who also has devastating power. Neither of those things will work in Błachowicz’s favor this weekend. The speed difference will be obvious from the opening bell, and Ulberg will be able to work the basic rule of fighting to perfection – hit and don’t get hit. Błachowicz is durable, so this one will probably go the distance, but the scorecards will be as lopsided as Błachowicz’s face after the brutal beating that he takes at the hands of Ulberg.

Sumian: There is really no reason why Carlos Ulberg should not be able to defeat Jan Błachowicz and firmly establish himself as a top contender in a division that desperately needs it. However, I just have this feeling that Błachowicz is going to play spoiler and be able to defeat Ulberg in a kickboxing match. The former champion is 42 years old, but he is still one of the most experienced and powerful combatants at 205 pounds. This will be a huge step-up in competition for Ulberg, whose best win came at the expense of Volkan Oezdemir. Ulberg will come out strong and try to establish himself as the stronger, younger and more confident fighter. However, in Round 2, Błachowicz will turn on the “Polish Power” and finish the rising Ulberg.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Dare I say, Kevin Holland? Since Sep. 2022, Holland has compiled a 3-6 record and seems to be getting worse as he goes. It could be that Holland has simply pushed himself too much and is starting to slow down after fighting so often. A loss to Gunnar Nelson will truly show that Holland has plateaued and is on the wrong side of his UFC career. He will probably not be cut with a loss, but the days of headlining Fight Nights or appearing on the main card will certainly be over.

Petela: If Andrew is going with Holland, I’ll say his opponent, Gunnar Nelson. He has not fought since 2023 and has lost his last two. Also, how is he only 36 years old? It feels like he has been fighting since I was in grade school, and we are the same age. A third loss in a row, combined with the inactivity, might spell the end of his UFC tenure.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Shauna Bannon vs. Puja Tomar. Bannon came into the UFC with a lot of hype, and she faltered in her debut. She’ll be looking to make a statement this weekend, and I think she does just that against Tomar.

Sumian: Heavyweight fights are generally bad, but I am going to get bold and pick Marcin Tybura and Mick Parkin. Both of these guys finish their opponents pretty often, and I believe Parkin will bring the best out of Tybura. Both men will land some heavy shots in Round 1, before one of them goes to sleep before the end of the first bell.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Sean Brady. He will finish Leon Edwards in the second or third round after dominating him for 10-plus minutes. Brady is definitely underrated and is likely already one of three or four best welterweights in the world. An impressive win over Edwards will launch Brady into top-tier contendership.

Petela: Nathaniel Wood. He is 4-1 since moving up to the featherweight division and is really coming into his own as a mixed martial artist. He has a handful of wins by each method, and I think he will be able to use the quick hand-speed that he needed at bantamweight and combine that with the durability he has from not having to make that weight cut en route to a stoppage win.

Pair this card with…

Petela: A glass of red wine. The main and co-main events feature four very technical and precise fighters. Sure, Brady and Błachowicz are also bruisers, but, at their respective cores, they exhibit the highest level of sophistication in mixed martial arts. So, rather than slugging back a few beers, pour a nice glass of your favorite red wine and enjoy the high-level fights with a high quality, sophisticated beverage.

Sumian: Dessert. As a kid, we all had to eat our boring dinners with vegetables and anything else that was good for a growing child. The reward? Dessert. This card is definitely dessert after the last few cards we have seen. The stakes in the main and co-main event are as high as can be, and the remainder of the card features a ton of action from start to finish.