UFC Shanghai: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Preview and Predictions

The UFC will return to Shanghai for the third time in promotional history, headlined by a duo of elite bantamweight contenders. The main event is a bantamweight clash between top-10-ranked contenders featuring Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong. A win for either likely puts them next in line for a title shot in early 2027.

The co-main event is a women’s strawweight bout between top-15-ranked strawweights Yan Xiaonan and Denise Gomes.

The UFC Fight Night early prelims air live on Paramount+ starting at 3 a.m. ET, followed by the main card on Paramount+ at 6 a.m. ET. Matthew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.

Umar Nurmagomedov has won back-to-back fights since losing his bid for the title; can he make it three straight and defeat the hometown fighter Song Yadong?

Sumian: Song Yadong is going to win this fight, and I am putting my full belief in him. Yes, Umar Nurmagomedov is extremely talented and one of the best bantamweights in the world, but I am frankly tired of it. He has not finished a fight in over three years and continues to get away with these decision wins without showing anything new. In summary, we do not need to see Nurmagomedov fight for another title until he proves he is worthy of it.

On the other hand, Song is fun, and it seems he has vastly improved over the last couple of years despite losing to Petr Yan and Sean O’Malley in that time. He is coming off an electric win over Deiveson Figueiredo, and I firmly believe he is poised to make a huge step. If he is able to get past Nurmagomedov, there is no doubt he is fighting for a title next.

This one will end in a 48-47 victory for Song and officially make him the number-one contender in the division.

Petela: I think that Umar Nurmagomedov spoils the homecoming fight for Song Yadong. It won’t be exciting, but it will be high level. These are two of the best bantamweights in the world, but nobody will confuse them with the likes of Sean O’Malley or Cory Sandhagen in terms of their level of showmanship. Neither man will overcommit or put himself out of position looking to land a fight-changing punch, but they will engage in extended combinations back and forth that entertain the diehard fans and kind of bore the casuals who are only tuning in to see blood.

Nurmagomedov just does everything a little bit better, based on the ultra-analytical eye test after watching both men fight several times. Song does have a good guillotine, like everyone who has trained at Team Alpha Male, but when Nurmagomedov changes levels, he won’t leave himself vulnerable. This fight will be a series of striking exchanges followed by a few takedowns for the Dagestani fighter that lead to extended control time and a smattering of damage. The scorecards will be wide, and Nurmagomedov will get the unanimous decision nod and probably put himself in line for a title shot in early 2027.

Denise Gomes is on the best streak of her UFC career; does she pull out a fifth consecutive win and topple Yan Xiaonan?

Petela: No. This is kind of a bummer fight for Denise Gomes because she is fighting as well as she ever has, but this is too big of a step up in competition. As the UFC tends to do, they clearly booked this fight to give a fighter from the country that is hosting the event an easier matchup in order to sell tickets and keep the crowd enthused throughout the night.

I am trying to focus more on being optimistic as I reach an advanced age, so I spent a lot of time looking for a path to victory for Gomes, but I have come up empty. The two women have just one win by submission combined, and that is on the record of Yan Xiaonan, so I don’t see Gomes trying to turn this into a grappling affair where neither one would particularly shine. On the feet, Yan is sharper and faster and probably will even have the power advantage. This one is too much for Gomes and will be a lopsided decision win for the Chinese standout.

Sumian: I am going with Gomes on this one. Yan Xiaonan is definitely the best fighter she has faced in her UFC campaign, but she has the capabilities to beat her and make a statement. Gomes, with a 30-27 unanimous decision.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: This is a huge amount of pressure for Umar Nurmagomedov. If he falls to Song Yadong, his title door is officially closed for the next several years.

Petela: Aoriqileng. He has dropped two of his last three fights, and prior to that skid, he had a weird ending to his fight against Daniel Marcos that ended after Aoriqileng wasn’t able to continue after absorbing a kick to the groin. If he drops another fight in a talent-rich division like bantamweight, he might be on the outside looking in of the UFC.

Which fight is the sleeper matchup on this card?

Petela: Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas. Tsuruya is a one-loss prospect who can finish fights with his hands or on the canvas with his submission grappling. Borjas has struggled a bit since joining the UFC, and his back is against the wall, so he will come out firing in this one. Don’t blink; this will be action-packed from the start.

Sumian: I do not know who more than half the fighters are on this card, so I have no idea. Let’s go Rei Tsuruya versus Kevin Borjas based simply off vibes and that flyweight is awesome right now.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Kai Asakura. He is going to smoke Aoriqileng and continue his successful move at bantamweight.

Petela: Jack Jenkins. He has a very winnable fight against Sean Woodson, and typically, when Woodson loses, he does it in spectacular fashion. Jenkins will cripple the legs of Woodson early and then work upstairs, leading to a vicious knockout before the start of round three.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Is it terrible if I say Chinese food? I know it is an early morning card here in the United States, but that’s kind of the best time to eat some General Tso’s chicken and fried rice.

Sumian: Not sure how Matt can eat Chinese food at 3 a.m., but you do you, sir! I am pairing this card with my bed. I will be watching from the comfort of my bedroom and enjoying a few fights here and there before falling back asleep.