UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman Preview and Predictions

After what was likely the most disappointing main event in promotional history, the UFC hits the road for a Fight Night event featuring a high-profile middleweight showdown. Oklahoma City hosts this weekend’s card as Dricus Du Plessis takes on Kamaru Usman. Du Plessis makes the walk to the Octagon for the first time since being dominated by Khamzat Chimaev and losing the middleweight title. Usman makes his second appearance at middleweight after dropping his divisional debut to the aforementioned Chimaev. He returned to welterweight, where he was once champion, to defeat Joaquin Buckley by unanimous decision while earning a Fight of the Night bonus. Now, he looks to reinsert himself into the title picture with a victory over the former middleweight king.

The co-main event also takes place at middleweight, with former title challenger Jared Cannonier looking to halt the four-fight winning streak of rising contender Christian Leroy Duncan. At 42 years old, Cannonier is much closer to the end of his career than the beginning and needs a statement victory to remain relevant in the division. Duncan is searching for the biggest win of his career—one that would establish him as a legitimate force at 185 pounds.

The event airs live on Paramount+ beginning at 5 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Matt Petela and Andrew Sumian preview the action.

Dricus Du Plessis has not fought since losing the title to Khamzat Chimaev. How does the former champion fare in his return to the cage?

Sumian: We have never truly seen Kamaru Usman get dominated in a fight. Leon Edwards landed a perfectly timed, albeit fortunate, head kick to win the title, and Khamzat Chimaev edged Usman in a very close decision after Usman accepted the fight on short notice. This might be the first time we see the former welterweight champion on the wrong end of a one-sided matchup. Du Plessis is bigger, stronger, and faster. On top of that, he is seven years younger and has been significantly more active.

Usman competing at such a high level at 39 years old is impressive. However, I am fairly confident we will see significant regression on Saturday night. Du Plessis by third-round TKO.

Petela: Thinking about this fight is confusing. They both fought—and lost to—Khamzat Chimaev, but their performances could not have been more different. Dricus Du Plessis laid an egg and could not get off his back once he was taken down. On the other hand, Kamaru Usman was competitive and won the final round of their contest. That should lead me to believe Usman wins this fight.

For better or worse, that is not what I think happens. Du Plessis probably has not been able to make welterweight since junior high school, whereas the bulk of Usman’s career was spent at 170 pounds. Chimaev also began his career at welterweight but notably struggled with the weight cut and is much better suited for middleweight. That is all to say I think size plays a major role in this fight.

I do not believe Usman will have the same success Chimaev had taking down and controlling Du Plessis. This fight takes place more on the feet than on the mat, and that favors the South African. I believe he confuses and wears down Usman with his herky-jerky striking while avoiding extended time on his back. Usman has well-documented knee issues, and it is remarkable that he is still competing at this level. I think his lateral movement will be too compromised to deal with Du Plessis’ unorthodox style. After being worn down by the barely controlled chaos that is DDP for a couple of rounds, Usman gets caught flat-footed by a looping punch that everyone in the arena sees coming—except him. It is so telegraphed that it should be avoidable, but the awkward angle blindsides him. Third-round knockout for the former middleweight champion.

Jared Cannonier is 12 years older than his opponent, Christian Leroy Duncan. Can “Tha Killa Gorilla” turn back the clock and pick up a victory?

Petela: Nope. Forty-two is not old in everyday life, but it is certainly old for a fighter. Jared Cannonier has had a great career, but it is time to hang it up. He is well past his prime and has lost three of his last four outings. This feels like a straightforward changing-of-the-guard fight. While Cannonier is nearing the end of his run, Christian Leroy Duncan is just entering his prime.

He has been on a tear recently and continues to improve with every performance, rattling off four straight victories, including two knockout wins that earned him Performance of the Night bonuses. I think he makes it five straight in devastating fashion by simply outgunning an older, slower opponent in a slugfest. Cannonier will not be able to keep up with the pace CLD sets, gets caught out of position by a big punch, and the fight ends before the opening round is over.

Sumian: This is a showcase fight for Christian Leroy Duncan. He earned a top-15 ranking in his last outing by defeating Roman Dolidze, and he will continue his climb on Saturday. The Englishman is in the prime of his career and should only improve with each performance. Cannonier remains dangerous because of his thunderous power, but I do not expect Leroy Duncan to get caught off guard. Unanimous decision for the Brit.

Which fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: It has to be Jared Cannonier. He is 42 years old and just 1-3 in his last four appearances. I do not see many scenarios where it makes sense for him to remain on the roster unless he is being used to build up prospects.

Petela: Chase Hooper. He has lost two straight fights and, frankly, looked bad in both of them. He failed to make it out of the first round in either contest before being knocked out. His chin is becoming a legitimate concern at such a young age, which is not a good sign for long-term career longevity. If he loses again—especially by knockout—it might be time to step away, either to retool on the regional scene or simply take a break from competing.

Which fight is the sleeper matchup on this card?

Petela: Alvin Hines vs. RJ Harris. Heavyweight fights are always hit or miss, so I could end up looking foolish for this pick, but something tells me this one is going to be a lot of fun. Both men possess finishing ability, whether by strikes or submissions, so it could be chaotic from the opening bell. It is definitely worth watching.

Sumian: I really like the Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline matchup. Kline enters on a three-fight winning streak, while Ricci looks to bounce back after losing a unanimous decision to Virna Jandiroba.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” bonus?

Sumian: DDP. The former middleweight champion is going to make Usman’s return to middleweight a difficult one. I can envision a fight where Du Plessis does not lose a single minute before getting the finish.

Petela: Tommy McMillen. He is an undefeated prospect who impressed in his promotional debut by stopping Manolo Zecchini in the first round with strikes. He keeps his unbeaten record intact this weekend by knocking out Alberto Montes, and that should be enough to earn a bonus.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Red Bull and vodka. Plain and simple, that drink embodies the way Dricus Du Plessis fights. It is chaotic, probably not good for your health, but it still gets the job done. He gets the win, so drink the beverage that matches his fighting style.

Sumian: Prayers for a solid main event. We need one after the way last week ended. I am hoping for a fight that lasts longer than one round and delivers plenty of action.