UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Preview and Predictions

International Fight Week and the return of Conor McGregor, the sport’s biggest star of all time – what a time to be a UFC fan, both diehard and casual. After five long years, “The Notorious” makes his return and will once again compete at welterweight, where he split his two previous fights against Nate Diaz. Standing opposite him this weekend is former featherweight and BMF champion Max Holloway. The pair fought when they were practically just out of diapers, and McGregor took home a unanimous decision victory. This time around, the men are closer to the end of their careers than the beginning. A win by either man could put him in position for a title shot next, either at lightweight for Holloway, who holds a win over current champion Justin Gaethje, or at welterweight or for the BMF belt for McGregor, who likely can no longer make lightweight.

The co-main event also has title implications in the lightweight division as Benoit Saint-Denis looks to extend his winning streak to five while facing former interim title challenger Paddy Pimblett. Saint-Denis absolutely bullied his way to victory over Dan Hooker in his last fight, and Pimblett came up short in the aforementioned interim title bout. A win by either man will likely lead to a callout of Gaethje, who is still unsure of his fighting future.

The prelims feature a high-profile fight as newcomer Gable Steveson makes his long-awaited debut against Elisha Ellison. Widely considered a showcase fight for the Olympic wrestler, he gets his first chance to shine on the big stage in front of a huge audience, both in person and watching on television.

The UFC 329 early prelims air live on UFC Fight Pass and Paramount+ starting at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary and main cards on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET and 9 p.m. ET, respectively. Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.

Five years is a long time to be inactive as a fighter; what version of Conor McGregor do we see this weekend in his return?

Sumian: To quote the great Dr. Alfred Lanning from I, Robot, “That, Detective, is the right question.” Who in their right mind knows which version of Conor McGregor is going to show up on Saturday? Frankly, that is what makes this bout even more exciting. The unknown aspect of McGregor’s mental and physical state leaves much to the imagination and will only entice the audience further to tune in.

There is no point for me to go into stats for this fight. Significant strikes, takedowns, and defense mean very little when we have not seen McGregor compete for almost half a decade. The stats the Irishman recorded five years ago will have little effect in this fight if he is not up to par mentally and physically. On top of that, he is fighting one of the fiercest, gamest, and mentally toughest fighters in Max Holloway for his return. Yes, Holloway has not competed at 170 before, but he is more than capable of moving up with relative ease because of his height and length. For Holloway, this fight is all about keeping the good times rolling. At this point, I do not see him fighting for a title again, but he will continue to be one of the go-to guys for exciting fights and headlines. Holloway is massively popular in the MMA community, and this fight will only bring more eyes to his name while earning him a hefty paycheck.

For McGregor, this fight should be considered everything. He does not necessarily have to win, but a good showing is imperative to his future in MMA. However, one must ask one more important question: Does McGregor really care? He is a multimillionaire, and there is widespread speculation that he wants out of his UFC contract sooner rather than later. Does he compete in the UFC ever again after this Saturday? There is so much unknown surrounding this main event, and I cannot wait to see how it plays out.

My brain is undeniably saying Max Holloway will starch McGregor for two or three rounds before finishing him with strikes. However, I will not be going in that direction. I have never been a fan of the Irishman and do believe he is not a good person in general. However, what he has done for the sport of MMA is undeniable. The moments McGregor has provided the MMA community over the years will go down in the history books and never be forgotten. For that reason alone, I want to believe in the fighter Conor McGregor. He will come back full force and find a way to defeat Holloway. I do not know how it will happen, but McGregor gets his hand raised and probably never fights in the UFC again.

Petela: I love it when Andrew makes it easy for me to disagree with him. Conor McGregor will be a shell of his former self this weekend, albeit a puffed-up shell at 170 pounds. It isn’t as if he spent the last five years constantly in the gym honing his skills and developing a cardio base that will allow him to compete at full force for 25 minutes. McGregor is a sprinter – a damn good one. He has the touch of death in his left hand, and sure, if he catches Max Holloway flush early, this fight could end with a bang, but Holloway is too smart for that. He and his team know that they have to weather an early storm and then turn things up once McGregor starts to slow down.

The longer this fight goes, the worse McGregor will look. By the third round, he will be incredibly exhausted, especially with all the extra muscle he is carrying. Those of us with the physique of a bodybuilder like McGregor and myself (kidding – I’m 155 pounds soaking wet these days) know that all that muscle takes a lot of oxygen to power. He will miss big early, over and over, and wipe out his gas tank. That is when Holloway will take over and put together those extended combinations that have given him so many wins over his career. Before the bell rings at the end of the third, we will see McGregor wilt and collapse under a barrage of punches, punctuated by a body shot that closes the show.

Benoit Saint-Denis has won four straight and finished all four of his opponents; can he keep that streak going against former interim title challenger Paddy Pimblett?

Petela: Full disclosure: I put it in writing that Benoit Saint-Denis would be a world champion immediately after his UFC debut. I still believe that, but perhaps it makes me a little biased. That being said, I think he absolutely overwhelms Paddy Pimblett this weekend.

Both guys are more than comfortable on the canvas, but Saint-Denis prefers to do damage with ground-and-pound, while Pimblett is more of a slick grappler who wants to submit his opponents once he gets them on their backs. I don’t think Pimblett has the requisite guard-playing skills to thwart the offense of Saint-Denis. It will take a while, but Saint-Denis will wear down Pimblett over the first two rounds and then pummel his face in the third to the point that the referee has to call a halt to the contest.

Sumian: I just do not see any world where Pimblett wins this fight. Props to him for taking on such a tough opponent after suffering a brutal defeat at the hands of Gaethje. But man, this is as difficult as they come for a bounce-back fight. BSD is firing on all cylinders right now and is, at worst, two fights away from a title shot. He has looked like a different fighter since losing to Poirier and Moicano back-to-back and could seal a title shot by defeating Pimblett. Again, mad respect to Pimblett, but he will get battered for three rounds and lose a lopsided decision.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 329?

Sumian: It has to be Gable Steveson. The prodigy has finally arrived and will be introduced at the biggest event of the year. His opponent, Elisha Ellison, is considered a sacrificial lamb, but he is certainly not terrible. It will be interesting to see how Steveson handles the pressure of the big stage given his inexperience in professional MMA. That being said, he will be victorious and start his climb toward the top of the heavyweight division.

Petela: This is a tough card for this question. Usually, I try to think of someone outside the main or co-main event who can put himself in title contention with a win or a fighter who has doors opened by what happens at the top of the card. Outside the top two fights, there just don’t seem to be any major bouts of consequence on this card. All that being said, I suppose if Mario Bautista can knock off Cory Sandhagen, it will bolster his standing in the bantamweight division, and he may need just one or two more victories before he gets a crack at the belt.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 329?

Petela: Charles Oliveira. Stay with me here, but if Conor McGregor were to win, he would likely want to fight for a belt next, and it doesn’t seem like McGregor wants to make 155 pounds at this point in his career. There is no chance he skips the line and gets a welterweight title fight, especially with Islam Makhachev slated to fight Ian Garry in August, so the BMF belt would be his only logical option. Getting beat up by Max Holloway takes that fight off the table and takes a big payday away from Oliveira.

Sumian: Robert Whittaker. Talk about a weird fight. Whittaker makes his light heavyweight debut against Nikita Krylov. Krylov is a crafty veteran with tons of experience against top-tier competition. He will also be taller, longer, and bigger than Whittaker. I do not see this going well for the former middleweight champion, and it breaks my heart.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: He is not in danger of being cut, but Brandon Royval is in a tough spot. I do not expect him to beat Kavanagh, and that will make three losses in a row. His days of being featured prominently on cards will likely be over, and a couple more bad performances could send him packing.

Petela: Cody Garbrandt. He has had one heck of a fall from the title. He’s been brutally knocked out four times and hasn’t won two consecutive fights since 2023. When is enough enough? A loss to Adrian Yanez might be the breaking point, whether that means he gets cut by the UFC or decides that taking more head trauma is not worth it anymore. Something is telling me that this is the last time we see him fight under the UFC banner.

Which fight is the sleeper matchup on this card?

Petela: Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley. All due respect to both fighters, they are not the best of the best and probably will not be fighting for a championship at any point in their respective careers. However, they are both all-action fighters and will put on a show early in the evening. This one will likely be fought entirely on the feet and will be a back-and-forth battle. I expect both of them to leave with at least one black eye before the fight is said and done.

Sumian: It is not a sleeper in any shape or form; I just do not know where else to highlight it. King Green vs. Terrance McKinney is my favorite fight on this card, and it is not even close. These two are going to go haywire as soon as the bell rings. McKinney should go down as one of the five most exciting fighters in UFC history. Do not miss this one.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Mario Bautista. He is going to pull off a very impressive submission against Sandhagen and earn a well-deserved bonus. Sandhagen is great but struggles against fighters who emulate Bautista’s style. An impressive win on Saturday puts Bautista one fight away from a title shot.

Petela: Gable Steveson. In all honesty, this is a squash match of the highest proportion for the Olympic gold medalist. His debut is set up for him to shine, and he will do just that. It will not take long for him to take down and pummel Elisha Ellison. He will undoubtedly leave with a postfight bonus for his efforts.

Pair this card with…

Petela: I am riding with the Hawaiian this weekend, so let’s go ahead and pair it with some regional cuisine. If you can find a place that serves loco moco, I highly recommend ordering as much as they’ll give you. If not, try making it at home and enjoy Max Holloway score another jaw-dropping victory.

Sumian: For the first time in five years, it is a McGregor fight week. Bring out the big guns. Personally, I will be hosting a large group of friends and serving BBQ, pizza, drinks, snacks, and whatever else it takes to make the day as memorable as possible. In addition, this is not like past McGregor cards that usually lacked depth. UFC 329 is stacked with awesome fights and will entertain for hours. Have fun, everyone!