UFC Muhammad vs. Bonfim Preview and Predictions

The UFC returns to the Meta Apex for another Fight Night showdown between top ranked welterweights. The main event features a pivotal matchup featuring former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad and surging contender Gabriel Bonfim. Muhammad will look to get back to his winning ways after suffering back to back losses while Bonfim will look to record the biggest win of career.

The co-main event features a middleweight showdown between Brendan Allen and Edmen Shahbazyan. Allen is currently the number four ranked middleweight in the world, but Shahbazyan will look to play spoiler and capture the biggest win of his career.

The event airs live on Paramount+ starting at 5 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Matt Petela and Andrew Sumian preview the action this week.

Belal Muhammad has lost back-to-back fights; can he return to championship form and defeat Gabriel Bonfim?

Sumian: I just do not see a world where Belal Muhuammad loses this fight. Gabriel Bonfim’s biggest win is a split decision victory over an out of prime Stephen Thompson. The former champion has fought the very best of the division for quite some time and has one of the most frustrating styles to deal with. Granted, Muhammad is generally not an exciting fighter but the job is to win fights and he is certainly capable of doing just that.

Bonfim is a lot of fun to watch and is still only 28 years old. He is on a nice four fight win streak but has yet to face anything close to the elite of the welterweight division. The Brazilian is a decorated submission artist in his own right and boasts a 76% takedown defense. However, he has simply not faced anyone near the skill that Muhammad possesses and it will show. The former champion returns to his winning ways by scoring a 49-46 unanimous decision victory.

Petela: It all comes down to what version of Belal Muhammad we see this weekend. Peak Muhammad beats Gabriel Bonfim handily, but he has a lot of miles on him and at 37 years old he is decidedly past his prime. As a fellow 37 year old, things slow down the closer you get to 40 years old. He boasts a ton of experience, which will help him not get finished early by Bonfim, but eventually his body won’t be successfully able to do what his brain is telling it. The latter rounds will be troublesome for the former champion. This one is competitive early but eventually Bonfim gets to the clinch and either secures a standing guillotine or gets the fight to the mat and smoothly locks in a rear-naked choke after slicing through Muhammad’s defense like butter.

Brendan Allen looked better than ever in his win over Reinier de Ridder; will he make it three straight wins and topple Edmen Shahbazyan?

Petela: Yes. This fight is going to be a showcase for Brendan Allen. He will not waste any time standing and trading with Edmen Shahbazyan, this one gets to the canvas early. Once the fight is on the mat, it will be one way traffic. Shahbazyan is a talented striker but he isn’t nearly the same caliber grappler as Allen.

This fight probably puts Allen one win away from a title showdown, depending on how things shake out at the top and whether Khamzat Chimaev gets the rematch he wants. For Shahbazyan, it shows that he has reached his ceiling as a fighter and he will be a respectable, fun fighter but not one who will ever be truly elite.

Sumian: This has to be one of the most confusing matchups in recent memory. Allen is the number four ranked middleweight in the world and Shahbazyan is unranked. This fight is extremely risky for Allena and I am surprised that he ended up taking it. A win really does nothing for his title aspirations and a loss against an unranked combatant will effectively end his title aspirations permanently. Props to Allen for taking this fight but we can only hope it does not end up being a poor decision. Allen by TKO in round two.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Matt Schnell. When he loses, he generally gets obliterated despite how game he is. He is 1-4 in his last five UFC fights and another loss will probably end his UFC campaign.

Petela: Chelsea Chandler. Two losses in a row and in one of those she missed weight by five pounds. If she doesn’t have a standout performance against Priscila Cachoeira this weekend it will probably mean the end of the road for her inside the UFC.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Bruno Silva vs. Edgar Chairez. The pace of this fight is going to be insane. These two guys are nonstop action and can fight at an elite level wherever the fight takes place. This one could easily turn into Fight of the Night after fifteen minutes of nearly even competition.

Sumian: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis. This should be a fun bantamweight scrap between two stand up fighters. I think these two will deliver a back and forth brawl and deliver one of the better fights on the card.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Santiago Luna. He will record the biggest win of his career when he defeats Bryce Mitchell by knockout. Luna is only 21 years old and has a very bright future in the UFC.

Petela: Fares Ziam. He has six wins in a row and has been fighting as well as ever as he enters his physical prime. At 29 years old he is poised to make a run for the top of the lightweight rankings. He scores a major knockout over Tom Nolan this weekend and also scores some extra cash.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Miller Lite. It’s watered down but still enjoyable. That just about perfectly sums up this fight card. A few good fights watered down with some slop. Enjoy it if you don’t have previous plans but this isn’t the fight card to go out of your way to sit down and watch from start to finish.

Sumian: Cardio. This is not a fight night that you need to buckle up for. Watching it while doing some elliptical or incline walking will be just fine.