UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan Preview and Predictions

The UFC returns to the Meta Apex this weekend for a lightweight showdown between Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan. Moicano looks to snap a two fight losing streak and get back to money winning ways while Duncan looks to make it five wins a row and enter the top 15 of MMA’s most stacked division.

The co-main event features a pivotal women’s strawweight matchup between Virna Jandiroba and Tabatha Ricci with potential future title shot implications on the line. The event airs live on Paramount+ starting at 5 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Matt Petela and Andrew Sumian preview the action this week.

Renato Moicano gives surging prospect Chris Duncan his biggest opportunity in the UFC; can Duncan extend his winning streak and give Moicano his first ever three-fight losing streak?

Sumian: This is going to be a big statement performance for Chris Duncan. At this point in Moicano’s career, I just do not see him being able to defeat up-and-coming prospects unless he is able to pull off a slick submission finish early.

Yes, Moicano’s last two losses are too elite competition in Islam Makhachev and Beniel Dariush, but it seems that the Brazilian is certainly past his prime and not long for a top-10 ranking in the division.

Duncan is younger and faster than Moicano at this point in their careers, and he will put on a master class performance. Duncan by second-round TKO.

Petela: I agree. This is a passing-of-the-torch fight. Renato Moicano has been near the top of the lightweight division for a while and is always game to fight anyone. That mentality will hurt him this weekend against a precision striker like Chris Duncan. The more offensive that Moicano tries to be, the more damage he will take. Expect Duncan to play the role of the counter puncher in this one and land check hooks and counter crosses throughout the fight until he connects with a punch that closes the show early in the second round.

Virna Jandiroba is fighting for the first time since losing to Mackenzie Dern for the then vacant strawweight belt; can the 37 year old Brazilian right the ship and prove she is still amongst the division’s best?

Petela: I think the best days are behind Virna Jandiroba. She isn’t necessarily washed up, but she isn’t quite in the midst of her prime either. While she is exiting her prime, her opponent Tabatha Ricci is entering her peak fighting years. Often, I try to think about which fighter would win if the best version of each one showed up who would win. In this case, I think the answer is Jandiroba, but I don’t think that will be the fight we see in this co-main event.

Sumian: Jandiroba was perfect before losing to Dern for the belt last year. She is still one of the best women’s strawweights on the planet but I think it is Ricci’s time to shine. She should be able to outpace the Brazilian and win a solid unanimous decision.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Tresean Gore. If he loses on Saturday, that will be three in a row, and, in the new era, he is the exact type of fighter that would be cut.

Petela: Hailey Cowan. She is on the verge of a three-fight losing streak and is yet to win inside the UFC. If she drops a third straight, and falls to 0-3 inside the organization, it will likely be the end of her run.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Not a lot of high profile fights on this card, but Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers should be a fun fight to watch on the prelims. Vannata is always exciting, and Flowers is heavy-handed. Combine that with these two being 0-5 in their last five total fights, and this one has slobber-knocker written all over it.

Sumian: Not much to choose from, but let’s go with Dione Barbos versus Melissa Gatto. I can see this fight being a fun scrap and definitely turning some heads to the prelims.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Chris Duncan. It is his time to shine.

Petela: Alice Pereira. She dropped her UFC debut by split decision, but faces a struggling Hailey Cowan, who needs a win and will likely take chances to try and secure a victory. That will give Pereira openings to land heavy punches to notch her first promotional win and earn a bonus.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Alright, this might be a shock, but I’m not going to dump on this card too badly. I have been wrong both times I’ve said that the Meta Apex cards were going to be awful. This could be a surprisingly entertaining event, so pair it with hamburgers topped with peanut butter. It shouldn’t taste good, but it does. That’s the perfect pairing for this card that will outshine expectations.

Sumian: A good ol’ fashioned hot dog. Nothing crazy, but this card will deliver a normal level of finishes and good fights.