UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott Preview and Predictions

The UFC heads north after an incredible event in Miami last weekend. Headlining the event is a welterweight clash featuring a divisional mainstay and a hometown hero. Gilbert Burns once challenged for the title at 170 pounds, but he has fallen on tough times recently, dropping his last four fights. He will have to turn back the clock if he wants to leave the crowd disappointed by handing his Canadian foe a stunning defeat. Malott has won three straight bouts since losing at the hands of another longtime promotional mainstay, Neil Magny. A win over Burns would certainly be the biggest of his career and would go a long way towards his announcement as a legitimate contender in the welterweight division.

The co-main event also features a Canadian fighter who will have the crowd behind him. Charles Jourdain had a decent run as a featherweight but has really started to shine as a bantamweight. He has won both of his fights since dropping a weight class and will look to move to 3-0 at 135 pounds by handing Kyler Phillips his third consecutive loss.

The event airs live on Paramount+ starting at 5 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Matt Petela and Andrew Sumian preview the action this week.

Gilbert Burns has lost his last four fights; can the former title challenger right the ship and get a win over Mike Malott?

Sumian: Gilbert Burns is 39 years old, and took some serious damage in the Jack Della Maddalena and Michael Morales losses. There is no doubt that the Brazilian has been one of the best welterweights in the UFC over the last five to six years, but this is clearly a bout set up to get Mike Malott over. The Canadian is on a three fight winning streak and will be looking to claim a welterweight ranking at the expense of Burns. In addition Malott is younger, stronger, bigger, longer, and taller. There is no doubt in my mind that the Gilbert Burns of three to four years ago would defeat Malott with ease. However, this version of Burns is clearly well beyond his prime and is struggling to stay competitive among the upper tier of an improving welterweight division.

I do not expect Malott to finish Burns. He is nowhere near the fighter Michael Morales is. However, I expect this to be a one sided 50-45 unanimous decision victory for the Canadian. He will use his physical advantages to bully the smaller Burns and win a clean sweep on the scorecards.

Petela: Mike Malott is catching Gilbert Burns at the perfect time. He is certainly past his prime, and his confidence has to be shaken by the four-fight losing streak. However, this is Gilbert Burns we are talking about. His losses are to the very top of the welterweight division. I think the Brazilian has one more win left in him before he hangs up the gloves. All respect in the world to Malott, but he hasn’t fought anyone of the same caliber as Burns. Tthe closest he has come was Neil Magny, and he lost that fight.

The hometown crowd thing always confuses me, because sometimes fighters are buoyed by the support and sometimes they are overwhelmed by the emotion. Maybe it is because I’m a sentimental old softie and want to see the veteran get back on track, but something is telling me that Malott will be overcome by the emotion of the crowd, try to get into a slugfest, rather than a technical battle where he would have the advantage, and leave himself vulnerable. As it has been said a million times before, power is the last thing to go, and Burns definitely has one punch power. This one ends early in Round 2 with Burns dropping Malott with an overhand right and then following him to the ground where he will latch onto his neck and score a submission.

Kyler Phillips has not won a fight since 2024; how does he fare against Charles Jourdain in front of a home crowd for the latter?

Petela: Not well. Charles Jourdain has looked very good since moving down to bantamweight. He has won both of his fights at 135 pounds by submission, and that is exactly how he will get the job done against Kyler Phillips.

Phillips has lost two straight and the circumstances of this fight in it’s entirety will force him to be aggressive and to try and make a statement. Not only has he lost back-to-back contests, but he hasn’t really been in a memorable fight since his submission win in 2022 over Marcelo Rojo. He needs more than just a pedestrian victory to remain relevant. It gives him the potential for an exciting, win but it also leaves him vulnerable for a devastating loss against someone as talented and explosive as Jourdain. Phillips will want to stay standing because of Jourdain’s advantage in the grappling, but that’s no picnic either for him. I think Jourdain carries bigger power and will be able to change the dynamic of the fight with long-range striking, power punches and kicks, and force Phillips onto his back foot. From there we will see a good old fashioned club and sub from the Canadian who makes it 3-0 at bantamweight.

Sumian: I have never been impressed by Kyler Phillips despite the previous hype around him. He is fairly athletic and has been able to showcase some special abilities in the Octagon. However, it has not translated to much success and he continues to go to the scorecards over and over.

On the other hand, Charles Jourdain is on a two-fight winning streak and looking better than ever in his new division. He is one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC that not a lot of casuals know about. I expect him to do his best to finish Phillips but will fall short and instead win a clear 29-28 decision.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: I really think this could be the last time we see Gilbert Burns in the Octagon. There is a real possibility he takes a beating for a number of rounds in this fight. This could lead to his camp and loved ones telling him it is time to hang it up for his own sake. Burns is, and will remain, one of my favorite fighters of all time, but I would hate to see him take further damage depending on how Saturday goes.

Petela: John Castaneda. He has not notched a win since 2023 and has only fought twice since that win. The three straight losses and you’re cut policy has kind of gone the way of the Dodo bird but the UFC brass doesn’t take kindly to inactivity and losses, especially when the fights that are lost aren’t memorable affairs. A loss will be the end of the road for the 34-year-old Texan.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Dennis Buzukja vs. Marcio Barbosa. Buzukja is a Ray Longo-trained fighter, so you know at the very least the corner work in between rounds will be exciting. Barbosa is a knockout artist with four straight wins by knockout, but both of his professional losses have also come by knockout. These two will put on a fan friendly affair on the prelims that will not go the distance.

Sumian: We are going to see another heavyweight fight deliver fireworks and make it two weekends in a row. The heavyweight showdown between Tanner Boser and Gokhan Saricam is going to be really fun. Together, Boser and Saricam combine for 19 knockouts in total and average a 71-percent finishing rate. Someone is going to go to sleep in this fight and it is going to be awesome until then.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Going with newcomer Julien Leblanc. Robert Valentin has had one of the worst starts to a UFC career in MMA history. He is currently 0-3 since joining the promotion and has suffered two knockout losses along the way. Leblanc is going to make it 0-4 and secure his first UFC victory in impressive fashion,

Petela: His recent history says otherwise, but I think Jai Herbert is due for a finish. He hasn’t won by knockout since 2021 but prior to that he had eight of his fights by some form of knockout. He has shown that, when he is in the zone, he can compete at the highest level and even had current lightweight champion Ilia Topuria in a world of trouble when the pair met back in 2022. He is taking on Mandel Nallo, a UFC debutant, so the experience will be on his side. Herbert will capitalize on Nallo being overwhelmed on the big stage in front of a Canadian crowd and score the finish that he needs.

Pair this card with…

Petela: This fight card takes place in America’s top hat and features a number of Canadian fighters who have an opportunity to bring the crowd to their feet. I think it’ll be a good night for the Canadian fighters so grab yourself a case of Molson to enjoy the bouts. Actually, here is my boldest prediction in a while, Mike Malott will eventually be the welterweight champion, so make it Molson Golden.

Sumian: Pizza with Canadian bacon is one of my favorite pizza duos. Why not enjoy some during a night of Canadian MMA and fun.