UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg Preview and Predictions

In the words of Will Smith, South Beach bringing the heat. The UFC heads to Miami this weekend for a numbered event complete with the light heavyweight championship on the line in the main event. With Alex Pereira moving up to heavyweight and vacating the title, Jiří Procházka and Carlos Ulberg will battle it out for the belt over 25 minutes, if necessary.

The only person to defeat Procházka inside the UFC is Pereira, and he looks to keep that the case and extend his winning streak to three in a row. To do that, he will have to get past Ulberg who has won nine consecutive fights and has not lost since his UFC debut. Both vaunted strikers, this fight will likely remain primarily on the feet, where, as in every Procházka fight, anything can happen.

The co-main event is also in the light heavyweight division as rising star Azamat Murzakanov meets former middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa. Murzakanov is an undefeated fighter who has won his last three fights by knockout. Costa has struggled mightily both inside and outside the cage and has just one win since beating an aged Luke Rockhold back in 2022. A win over someone like Murzakanov might spur a run up a weight class for Costa, but a loss could mean the end of his relevancy at the elite level in mixed martial arts.

Also on the main card is a heavyweight fight between Josh Hokit and Curtis Blaydes. This could be another changing-of-the-guard fight with the undefeated Hokit looking to make his name over someone who has fought for the interim title.

The UFC 325 early prelims air live on UFC Fight Pass and Paramount+ starting at 5:30 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary and main cards on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET and 9 p.m. ET, respectively. Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.

Both fighters in the main event prefer to keep fights on the feet; will it be Jiří Procházka or Carlos Ulberg who is able to implement his gameplan and earn the win?

Sumian: This is easily the best matchup the UFC could have put together after Alex Pereira vacated the belt to move to light heavyweight. Jiří Procházka is a staple of the light heavyweight and would likely still be a champion if it was not for the existence of Pereira. Despite coming up short against the Brazilian twice, Procházka has kept himself at the top of the division by continuously defeating anyone not named Pereira in the last several years. On the other hand, Carlos Ulberg has been consistently building his win streak and resume since Feb. 2022. He made his UFC debut back in Mar. 2021 and suffered a surprising second-round knockout loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu. Since then, the Auckland native has been perfect in his UFC campaign and is currently riding a nine-fight winning streak heading into the biggest fight of his young career.

Despite both combatants being stand-up fighters, their approach to in-cage combat is vastly different. We already know what Procházka is going to do, and it involves mixing chaos with violence. The former light heavyweight champion is a crafty, yet wild, striker that generally starts slow in the first round. However, once he finds his groove, the beast comes out and he unleashes flurry after flurry before usually stopping his opponents with strikes. We have the privilege of watching Procházka compete in the UFC since 2020, and there is no indication he will approach this fight differently, especially since Ulberg is also a striker. Having the Czech native as a champion is good business for the UFC, due to his excitement and popularity. However, he will still need to get past a very dangerous Ulberg.

While Procházka thrives in chaos and flurries, Ulberg thrives in calculation and counter-striking. Ulberg has finished six opponents during his nine-fight winning streak, but he does so very differently than Procházka would do. He does not overthrow or put himself in harm’s way while approaching his opponent with patience. He is more than happy to wait it out and let his opponent make a mistake before pouncing on the opportunity. This makes the Auckland native a very interesting matchup for Procházka, due to the conflicting approaches in striking. Only time will tell if Ulberg can make it 10 and capture the light heavyweight crown.

I have gone back and forth on this fight so many times in my head, and for good reason. Last time I checked, the odds for this fight were still pretty close with Procházka sitting as the slight favorite. Ultimately, this is going to be about whose style comes to fruition first. If Procházka comes out wild and sloppy, Ulberg has the tools necessary to counter and put him out in convincing fashion. On other hand, Procházka can certainly drag Ulberg into deep waters and wear him out before securing a finish in the back half of the bout. I truly believe Ulberg has a good chance of winning this fight, but I am going to go with Procházka. He has a massive experience advantage and has undeniably fought the better competition between the two. He is also able to come alive late in a fight and capitalize on the exhaustion of his opponent. Procházka by fourth-round submission.

Petela: Hard to disagree with Andrew’s summation that it comes down to which fighter’s style of striking takes control. The uglier it gets, the better the chances that Jiří Procházka recaptures the title. If this fight remains a technical showdown, Carlos Ulberg will have quite the advantage. That will be easier said than done. Trying to keep Procházka controlled and stopping him from forcing the fight into chaos is like trying to catch a bird that somehow got trapped inside.

Ulberg isn’t Alex Pereira. He doesn’t have the same thunderous power, and, in this fight, that will be the difference maker. It will be too difficult to catch Procházka flush as he is doing his herky jerky movements to close distance or get out of range. Surely, Ulberg will land his fair share of shots, mostly jabs and teep kicks, but nothing fight-changing. Like many of Procházka’s opponents, he will get frustrated and baited into playing the chaos game, and that will not end well for “Black Jag” this weekend.

Okay, it is too painful for me to actually fully agree with Andrew, so I will say that Procházka gets it done in the fourth round, but it won’t be by submission. Instead, it will come after a spinning elbow that wobbles Ulberg and a flurry of punches that crumble him along the cageside forcing the referee to step in and halt the bout.

Paulo Costa has not won back-to-back fights since his first professional loss; can he change that and also hand Azamat Murzakanov his first loss?

Petela: This fight is the epitome of when the promotion sets up an up-and-coming fighter to bolster his resume against an aging veteran whose name outweighs his talent at this point in his career. Azamat Murzakanov is a monster. He is going to have his way with Paulo Costa. There is no better example of a fighter who lost himself after a loss than Costa. He was a terrifying, unbeatable monster going into his fight with Israel Adesanya. After the beating he took in that showdown, he has been a shell of his former self, both in the cage and outside. We have seen him go on unhinged rants on social media more times than I can count, and the mental toll that losing his invincibility took on him ruined his career. This will probably be his last somewhat high-profile fight, and it ends poorly for him at the hands of one of the next generation’s best prospects.

Sumian: I am going to keep this short and sweet. First, I have no idea why this bout is taking place. Murzakanov is the sixth-ranked light heavyweight in the world and undefeated. Paulo Costa is 2-4 in his last six UFC appearances and has not fought at light heavyweight since 2021.

Second, Murzakanov is fighting for a UFC belt in 2027 and is already one of the top five best light heavyweights at this point in time. He is going to batter the Brazilian for three straight rounds and earn a lopsided decision victory.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 327?

Sumian: This one is as bold as it gets, but I am going with Esteban Ribovics. I really enjoy watching this guy fight and am well aware he is taking a massive step up in competition in Mateusz Gamrot. However, I believe the Argentinian has a good chance of pulling off the upset. If he does, this will be a massive addition to the stacked lightweight rankings with a ton of incredible fights to make for the future.

Petela: Dominick Reyes. He is coming off a loss to Carlos Ulberg after a career resurgence. Getting back on track with a win over Johnny Walker will be just what he needs to once again insert himself into the title picture. With one more win after this one, he may just be in a title fight sometime in 2027.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 327?

Petela: Aaron Pico. He is taking on an aged Patricio Pitbull on the prelims after getting knocked out brutally by Lerone Murphy in his UFC debut. Losing a second fight in the promotion to someone well past his prime is not a good look for someone who was once the most promising prospect in mixed martial arts.

Sumian: Curtis Blaydes. This guy is the fifth-ranked heavyweight in the UFC, and he is facing a guy who is 2-0 in the UFC and unranked. Whether he wins or loses, nobody seems to care about watching Blaydes fight, and it is truly sad. He is a very talented fighter and has been one of the best heavyweights in the world for almost a decade. A win or loss does little to nothing for his career at this point.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: It has been tough sledding for Vicente Luque. He was one of my favorite additions to the UFC roster after coming off TheUltimate Fighter. Between 2016 and 2021, he was a top-ranked welterweight in the UFC but has struggled immensely as of late. Since Apr. 2022, the Brazilian is 2-5 in the UFC and currently on a two-fight losing streak. I do not think a loss leads to his release, but he will certainly be on the chopping block sooner rather than later.

Petela: Kelvin Gastelum. He has not won back-to-back fights since 2018. Yikes. That is such a far drop from where he was in his prime. If he loses to someone else over-the-hill like the aforementioned Vicente Luque, it might be time for him to call it a career. Let’s just hope he makes weight this time around.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown. This one will be fun. Both guys will stand at range and trade. They don’t necessarily have one-punch knockout power, but they can do significant damage after accumulating strikes, and that will lead to a back-and-forth contest for the duration of the 15-minute fight.

Sumian: it is definitely not a sleeper, but Cub Swanson versus Nate Landwehr is my favorite fight of his entire card. These two are going to beat the absolute heck out of each other, and I suspect someone will go down before the end of the third round. Both Swanson and Landwehr are must-see TV when competing, and this will only be confirmed after they put on one of the best fights of the year on Saturday.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Dominick Reyes. He was gutted that he could not make the Cinderella story come to full fruition, but there is no shame in losing Carlos Ulberg. Reyes has shown he still has plenty left in the tank, and I am picking him to knock out Johnny Walker in the first round.

Petela: Josh Hokit. He has, by far, the biggest opportunity of his career, taking on Curtis Blaydes. I think he is catching Blaydes at the best time possible. Blaydes fought 10 months ago and sneaked out a win over Rizvan Kuniev, but hasn’t been able to build any momentum since winning via knee injury over current champion Tom Aspinall. Like Paulo Costa in the co-main event, his name outweighs his talent at the moment, and defeating him will be a major feather in the cap of Hokit as he moves towards the top of the very shallow heavyweight division.

Pair this card with…

Petela: It is a Miami event so acquire a few nice cigars and a mojito or two. Sit back, enjoy a fun fight card from start to finish, and watch Jiří Procházka reclaim the light heavyweight championship.

Sumian: The April numbered card is usually a few days apart from my birthday. This year is no different. Thus, I will be having approximately 25 of my closest friends over at my place to watch the fights, eat tacos, and enjoy a nice Saturday.