UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy Preview and Predictions

After a weekend at the Meta Apex, the UFC is back on the road, and the first stop is London, England for a pivotal featherweight showdown. The last time the UFC was in London, the main event featured a similar situation. England’s own Leon Edwards took on rising contender Sean Brady. Unfortunately for the hometown crowd, Brady dominated Edwards and finished him by submission in the fourth round. This time around, Manchester native Lerone Murphy will look to secure his claim to the title by taking on fellow top featherweight contender Movsar Evloev. Both fighters are undefeated and could very well secure a title shot with an impressive victory.

The co-main event features rising British star Luke Riley who will make his second UFC appearance after an impressive debut back in Nov. 2025. The card also features a welterweight showdown between Michael Page and Sam Patterson, and several hometown fighters such as Chris Leroy Duncan and Nathaniel Wood.

The event airs live on Paramount+ starting at 1 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-to-Toe.

Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev are both undefeated; which featherweight contender makes his claim for a title shot next?

Sumian: There is a real shot that neither fighter makes a claim for a title shot given the history of both combatants. Despite their stellar records, neither Movsar Evloev nor Lerone Murphy are known for finishing fights. Since joining the UFC, Murphy has put together an impressive 10-0 record, but he has only finished three of his opponents. The British native is an extremely talented and well-rounded fighter, but his game generally revolves around controlling his opponents and winning a convincing decision. His most impressive win came at the expense of UFC newcomer Aaron Pico. Despite pulling off a Knockout of the Year candidate, Murphy was very clearly struggling against the faster and more explosive Pico. A well-timed counter ultimately ended the bout, but Murphy was not dominating up until that point.

For Evloev, this is a make-or-break fight. The Russian native is 9-0 in the UFC, but he has yet to finish a fight. His last finish was back in Jul. 2018, when he knocked out Rafael Dias. It is no secret what Evloev’s gameplan is going into a fight night, but something has to change for people to care about him and his claim to the title. He is undeniably a talented fighter, but the lack of entertainment makes it very difficult for people to get behind him.

I really do not know what to think about this fight. There is a chance it could be exciting, but I just do not see that happening. Murphy has yet to face a grappler as skilled as Evloev, and he is currently averaging a 51-percent takedown defense. Evoloev averages 4.67 takedowns per 15 minutes, and it is hard to imagine a world where he does not get Murphy to the ground at least a few times in a 25-minute bout. Murphy could take a round or two, if he gets busy on the feet and continuously moves, but the Russian is going to turn in another unanimous decision victory. Will this be enough to get him a title shot? Probably not.

Petela: Either of these guys would have been a better opponent for Alexander Volkanovski in his last fight, rather than a rematch against Diego Lopes. It comes down to who dictates where the fight takes place. If it is a methodical standup fight, Lerone Murphy will wear Movsar Evloev down by stuffing takedowns and landing big shots as punishment for trying to change levels. If Evloev can get the fight to the ground early, it’ll be a long night for Murphy, as he takes a beating and struggles to get back to his feet.

Logic says that coming out of Great Britain, Murphy hasn’t had the most experience with super talented wrestlers and might struggle, but I think he catches Evloev early with a fight-altering punch. It won’t end the fight, but it will be enough to force Evloev into taking less-than-technical level changes to try to recover. Once he is less than 100-percent, his offensive wrestling will be quite ineffective, which will allow Murphy to pick him apart at boxing range. Murphy wins by late-round TKO and should get a title shot in his next fight.

Luke Riley scored a Performance of the Night bonus in his UFC debut; can he replicate that this weekend against Michael Aswell Jr.?

Petela: These guys are both young prospects who have the potential to become contenders, and it is almost a shame that they are meeting this early. I do think, at this point in their careers, Luke Riley is the more talented fighter, and he should be able to get the better of Michael Aswell Jr. It will likely be a predominantly stand-up battle, neither man being known for excellent submission skills. As a matter of fact, neither man has won a professional fight by submission. That will make this a fun one for both hardcore and casual fans.

This is Aswell’s third UFC fight and Riley’s second, so they both have some growing to do to get acclimated to the big show. However, the hometown crowd will buoy Riley rather than put undo pressure on him, and he will shine. Riley’s defense and head movement will be the difference maker. He will avoid the big shots coming his way from Aswell and land counter shots that force Aswell to be much less aggressive. Once he is fighting on the back foot, Aswell will have to be too cautious defensively to get off substantial offense. By the third round, he will be fighting not to get knocked out, rather than to win, and will wind up on the wrong end of a decision. Probably no bonus in it for Riley, but he does maintain his undefeated record.

Sumian: Luke Riley should be able to get another bonus. He is a finishing machine and definitely seems to have the ability to become a star in the UK. He is undefeated and currently riding a three-fight finishing streak, all by way of knockout. Aswell Jr. is 1-1 in the UFC and has compiled an 11-3 record throughout his professional career. This fight will end in a finish, and it will likely be Riley that will get his hand raised.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Austen Lane. He is 1-4 in his last five UFC bouts, and all of his losses have ended by knockout or submission. Lane is 38 years old and is facing Polish up-and- comer Iwo Baraniewski. Baraniewski is 7-0 and 11 years younger than Lane. This is obviously a set-up fight for the Polish native and will likely end poorly for Lane. A third loss in a row will probably close the doors on his UFC career.

Petela: Antonio Trocoli. He is yet to win inside the UFC and has lost three straight fights. All three of those losses saw him get finished, twice by guillotine and once by a left hook from overhyped prospect Shara Magomedov. If he can’t get a jaw-dropping victory over newcomer Mantas Kandratacivius, he won’t be on the UFC roster next week.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Louie Sutherland vs. Brando Pericic. It is a risky move picking a heavyweight bout these days, I know, but this one should deliver. Both of these big fellas like to get the job done inside the distance with their heavy hands, which should lead to a slobberknocker for as long as it lasts, which I doubt is more than 10 minutes.

Sumian: The featherweight matchup between Nathaniel Wood and Losense Keita is circled on my list. Keita was one of the most highly touted prospects coming out of Africa and has compiled an impressive 16-1 record. He has not competed in professional MMA since Dec. 2024, but he is still only 28 years old and took the Oktagon promotion by storm when he joined back in 2021. Wood is a perfect type of opponent for Keita to debut against. These guys will bring it, and I expect this to win the Fight of the Night.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: I am feeling a Michael Page finish. We have not seen him finish an opponent in the UFC, but it will happen on Saturday against Sam Patterson. Page by second-round knockout to earn a bonus and UFC highlight finish.

Petela: Christian Leroy Duncan. He is on a three-fight winning streak and has a big chance to prove he is a legitimate contender by beating Roman Dolidze. I think he stops the Georgian fighter with elbows, probably started by a spinning one, and sets himself up for a big bonus and a high profile fight next.

Pair this card with…

Petela: You can’t drink all day if you don’t start in the morning. This might not be a morning fight card, but it is a matinee of sorts here in the United States. This one is the best Fight Night on paper in a while, so celebrate with a few pints in the morning, take a snooze, and then get started again to enjoy the high-level fights on the main card less than sober, but not quite drunk.

Sumian: Fish and chips, I guess. This card is okay, but nothing to write home about. The main card takes place at 1 p.m. PT, so I will be picking up some fish and chips from a local spot and enjoying the card with a British classic.