UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 Preview and Predictions

No divisional titles are on the line this weekend, but perhaps more importantly than that, the UFC’s coveted “BMF” title will be up for grabs as two truly elite lightweights throw down in the main event. Current BMF champion Max Holloway scored one of the best knockouts of all time at UFC 300 when he knocked current interim lightweight champion Justin Gaethje out cold in the final seconds of their fight. He would go on to exact revenge against Dustin Poirier, who had beaten him when the pair were prospects. This weekend, Holloway will look to stop Charles Oliveira from getting revenge of his own.

Oliveira comes into this fight after shutting up doubters who thought he might be past his prime by handling Mateusz Gamrot and winning via submission, yet again. Not only is Oliveira trying to secure the BMF belt, but he is also trying to put himself into position for another crack at lightweight gold and get even with Ilia Topuria.

The co-main event pits middleweight contenders against one another, both of whom need a win. Reinier de Ridder looked to be on the fast track for a title shot until his last outing where he was soundly defeated by Brendan Allen. Across the cage from him will be Caio Borralho, who also dropped a fight for the first time inside the UFC the last time he was in action. A decision loss against Nassourdine Imavov left much to be desired from the Brazilian fighter who had been putting on exciting fight after exciting fight prior to that clash. The winner should be a win or two away from a title fight, while the loser will be shoved to the back of the back with a steep hill to climb before he can get anywhere near the championship picture.

UFC 326 airs live in its entirety on Paramount+ starting at 5 p.m. ET with the early prelims. The preliminary card then kicks off at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 9 p.m. ET. Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.

The BMF title is on the line in a rematch between two legends of the sport; will Max Holloway defend his belt or will Charles Oliveira get revenge that is over a decade in the making?

Sumian: The last time these two fought, Max Holloway was on a surging six-fight winning streak after losing to Conor McGregor in Aug. 2013. He had recently defeated Cub Swanson by submission and cemented himself as a top-tier contender in the 145-pound division. At the same time, Chares Oliveira was on a four-fight winning streak and had racked up two Performance of the Night bonuses and an epic Fight of the Night performance in a rematch with Nik Lentz. Neither was the star they were destined to be at this point in time, but it was clear that both men had significant potential to be two of the biggest stars in UFC history.

Fast forward to over a decade later, and there is not an MMA fan that is unfamiliar with Holloway and Oliveira. Both men will go down as two of the most exciting and loved fighters in MMA history when all is said and done. As the end approaches for both, two of the UFC’s most marketable and talented stars will throw down for the symbolic BMF title that is sure to deliver levels of excitement that are expected out of both combatants.

Since Jun. 2018, Oliveira has compiled a 14-3 record, captured the UFC lightweight championship, and established himself as one of the most prolific UFC lightweights in MMA history. His only three losses in that time have been to Islam Makhachev, Arman Tsarukyan, and Ilia Topuria. The Brazilian was prominently known as a grappler when he started out his UFC career, but over time, he became a well-rounded executioner, capable of finishing his opponents both on the feet and the ground. At 36 years old, the end is near for the former lightweight champion, and he will look to cement his mark in MMA history by defeating a fellow legend to capture the BMF title.

Like Oliveira, Holloway has only lost to the best of the best in the last decade. He captured the UFC featherweight title, defended it twice and defeated some of the greatest fighters in UFC history including Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar, Justin Gaethje, and Dustin Poirier. After monumental success in the featherweight division, Holloway is keen on capturing the lightweight title, and a win over Oliveira while defending the BMF belt gets him one step closer to becoming a two-division champion.

This fight should be wild, and I expect both men to come into the contest trying to finish. The pair combine for 46 finishes and have outstanding abilities anywhere the fight goes. When it is all said and done, Max Holloway will be the one with his hand raised. Oliveira will not make it easy on him, but I expect Holloway to be the fresher fighter in this bout, and he has undoubtedly taken less punishment in his career than the Brazilian. He will be able to rock Oliveira somewhere in the third or fourth round and finish him off with strikes. Expect a Fight of the Night performance from both men.

Petela: The BMF championship is one of the best belts in all of combat sports. Sure, it doesn’t really mean anything, and it doesn’t denote the best fighter in any particular division, but it is a throwback to the origins of the sport, where finishes and excitement meant more than a finely refined technical game. The best thing about this particular BMF matchup is that both of these guys are not only can’t-miss entertainment, they are truly elite and well-rounded martial artists.

Simply put, this fight rules. Max Holloway’s signature point-down at the cage and throw bombs to end fights is probably the most anticipated thing in MMA today. If the fight gets to that point, it likely means he has outworked and outstruck Charles Oliveira for 24 minutes and 50 seconds, but is still willing to play Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots and risk defeat at the last moment. If the fight doesn’t get to that point, it probably means Oliveira added another submission to his record.

When it comes down to it, I think that Holloway’s defensive grappling will hold up and he will avoid being stuck on his back for more than a few seconds. He won’t concede the bottom position and will scramble successfully back to his feet in order to avoid being in Oliveira’s wheelhouse. Where I think Holloway will pull ahead in this fight is in the clinch and against the cage after he stops takedown attempts. Elbows and knees from in tight and punches on the break will slow down Oliveira and keep him from overcommitting on future attempts. I don’t think we see a repeat of UFC 300 where Holloway flatlined Justin Gaethje at the last second but he will get the nod by a wide margin on all three judges’ scorecards.

Reinier de Ridder is coming off his first loss since joining the UFC; how does he fare against Brazilian standout Caio Borralho?

Petela: Both of these fighters are coming off of a loss, Caio Borralho losing for the first time in over 10 years and 17 fights. If Reinier de Ridder is going to have success, he needs to get this fight to the ground. Even then, Borralho is no pushover in the grappling world. These guys could put on a fun show full of scrambles and position changes if Borralho is willing to stay on the canvas and engage in a prolonged grappling battle.

I don’t think that will be the best option for him, nor do I think my hopes for seeing it will come true. I expect Borralho to use his grappling in a mostly defensive manner, in order to stay off of his back and on his feet. Repeatedly trying and failing to get the fight into his world will exhaust RDR, and, as we saw against Brendan Allen in his last outing, he will fatigue and become a stationary target for his Brazilian opponent. This one likely ends in the fourth round with Borralho scoring a TKO finish with his hands, helped along by the diminished gas tank of de Ridder.

Sumian: I am not sure what to make of this fight, and I definitely did not expect to land as the co-main event of the card. Nevertheless, both guys are in need of a bounce-back win after suffering one-sided losses in their last UFC appearances. I agree with my colleague’s analysis on this fight. On paper, Caio Borralho should take this one convincingly. However, it truly seemed like Reinier de Ridder was not himself back in Oct. 2025. He competed four times last year, and it is reasonable to assume that it took a significant toll on his physical and mental state. Purely based on a gut feeling and talent, de Ridder bounces back with a unanimous decision victory and finds his groove once again.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 326?

Sumian: I do not believe Raul Rosas Jr. has the ability to become a UFC bantamweight champion. Yes, he is incredibly young and still developing, but there seems to be a ceiling that he is going to hit, and I expect that to happen after Saturday. That being said, he will get past veteran Rob Font and record the most significant win of his career. This will earn him a bantamweight ranking and potentially a top-10 opponent for his next UFC appearance.

Petela: Ilia Topuria. The winner of this fight will have a legitimate case for being the next title contender after a title unification bout. That puts Arman Tsarukyan on the back burner once again and not having to fight him is the best chance Topuria has to retain his title for a long time.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 326?

Petela: Arman Tsarukyan. It’s yet another high-profile fight in the lightweight division that doesn’t involve perhaps the division’s best fighter. He is very much still in hot water with the UFC brass after the late notice pull-out at UFC 311, and won’t be getting a much deserved title shot in the near future, so any time that another contender makes a statement, whether it is Holloway or Oliveira, it likely pushes him back in line for an eventual crack at the belt.

Sumian: Everybody on this card named Cody. Yes folks, I am calling for a clean sweep and expect all three Cody’s (Garbrandt, Brundage, and Durden) to suffer losses. All three are on losing streaks, and the streaks will only extend after Saturday.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: It has to be Coby Durden. He is 1-5 in his last six UFC appearances and is currently on a three-fight losing streak. Given how the UFC operates in the Paramount+ era, a loss almost certainly seals his fate.

Petela: Rob Font. If he loses to Raul Rosas Jr., it will be the third time in his last nine fights that he’s dropped back-to-back fights. He is already long in the tooth for a bantamweight at 38 years old, and he has repeatedly fallen short when he faces the best of the best. If he drops a fight to a prospect like Rosas, it could be the end of the line for him with the promotion and maybe for his career in general.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Gaston Bolanos vs. Jeong Yeong Lee. Bolanos has largely been a disappointment since joining the UFC, but, with his elite striking, he has the ability to turn a mediocre fight into a technical masterclass in an instant. Lee is a well-rounded fighter who can finish fights with his hands or on the canvas with his go-to armbar submission. This one could easily steal the show early on in the night.

Sumian: It’s not a sleeper, but I want to highlight the lightweight bout between Drew Dober and Michael Johnson. I genuinely feel this has the potential to be one of the best fights of 2026, and it will deliver in extraordinary fashion.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Gregory Rodrigues. He will get his revenge on Brunno Ferreira and win by knockout. Ferreira defeated Rodrigues back in Jan. 2023, but I expect the latter to avenge this loss and do so in exciting fashion.

Petela: Drew Dober. He takes on Michael Johnson, which means he will have plenty of opportunities to land a devastating punch, since Johnson isn’t exactly known for his ability to take a punch. Johnson will probably look good early, per usual, and then get clobbered by a looping punch he should have seen coming.

Pair this card with…

Petela: This main event is a classic example of MMA at its best, so go with a classic spread of hamburgers, nachos, and wings. Old-school fight fare is exactly what you need for this fight card.

Sumian: Your choice of Brazilian meats or Hawaiian BBQ. I recently had Brazilian steak, so I am going to go ahead and order some L & L Hawaiian BBQ from Glendale, Calif. near my house. The main event is MMA royalty, and it should be treated as such.