Grand Sumo is back this month, with the 2026 haru basho (spring tournament). The 15 day tournament starts on Sunday, March 8 and takes place in Osaka, Japan. In the makuuchi (top division), whomever gets the best record after fifteen days of matches will be awarded the top division championship.
The race for the cup is the most fascinating storyline in this tournament (as always). But there’s a lot else going on that I’m intrigued by. Here’s a run down of what I’m watching for in this tournament.
Aonishiki’s Rope Run Part 2: This Time It’s Serious
Aonishiki, the 22 year-old former Ukrainian refugee, has won the last two tournaments in a row. That’s an amazing feat and one which has now put him on the verge of becoming the sport’s 76th yokozuna. If he makes that rank, he will be the first ever European-born yokozuna.
There was a chance he could have gotten that promotion by winning the last tournament, in January. However, given that his previous title was done while ranked sekiwake, he would have needed a dominating victory in January to earn the promotion (instead of the merely very good victory he achieved). Usually, you need two titles back to back while ranked ozeki.
As we head into March, Aonishiki has now met half of that criteria. If he wins this tournament he is now guaranteed to become a yokozuna. Given that he has already won two titles in a row, there’s a chance he might even get promoted to yokozuna if he finishes runner-up in this tournament.
Aonishiki has been excellent in every top division tournament he has competed in. He’s either gotten 11-4 or 12-3 records in all of them. So it seems very likely that he’ll do enough this month to earn that promotion. He’s also handled himself with incredible composure, thus far, in his career, seeming unfazed in high pressure situations.
It’s hard to not believe that Aonishiki becoming a yokozuna is a matter of when and not if. And that when might be right now.
Onosato and Hoshoryu Need To Respond
Onosato and Hoshoryu have had to play second and third fiddle to Aonishiki for the last five months. I’m sure they both want an end to that as soon as possible. If Aonishiki takes this title, he’s not only the next yokozuna, he’s the face of the entire sport (replacing them, especially Onosato).
Our two current yokozuna can blame injuries for some of the reasons why they haven’t been able to match Aonishiki’s output since November. Even so, it’s not a good luck for a yokozuna to be on the outside looking in for so long.
Onosato has never gone three tournaments in a row without winning the yusho or finishing runner-up. That’s a first he’ll hope to avoid this month. Despite his recent struggles, and the rise of Aonishiki, Onosato does remain the most awesome force in the sport and the heavy favorite to win each tournament, so long as he’s healthy. He also has a perfect record over Aonishiki (4-0).
Hoshoryu has had a better run of form than Onosato, finishing as one of the runners up to Aonishiki in November. It’s been well over a year now since he’s won a title, though. With how much scrutiny he endures from inside sumo, he must be feeling a lot of pressure to break that streak and claim a cup in March. Hoshoryu is also the kind of person who would likely take a lot of pleasure in halting Aonishiki’s rise to the ultimate promotion (for now, at least). If Hoshoryu wants to stop Aonishki, though, he’s got to figure out a way to beat him. He’s 0-4 against the ozeki and seems totally baffled by the Ukrainian’s style of sumo.
Hoshoryu does know how to beat Onosato, though. He’s got a 9-2 record against him. The rock, paper, scissors situation between these three is creating compelling theatre for sumo fans right now and March will give us another chance to see if these head-to-head matches go as expected or whether someone will buck the trends (and potentially earn the yusho as a result).
Beware of Fujinokawa
Fujinokawa is the biggest wildcard in this tournament. The 21 year-old violence machine has been the most entertaining man in the sumo since he blew onto the scene three tournaments ago. The smallest man in the division fights with incredible heart and intensity and, so far, that’s been enough to get wins. His technique leaves a lot to be desired, but the intensity with which he applies it has unsettled a number of larger more experienced wrestlers who don’t approach every bout like their life is on the line.
Fujinokawa’s exploits have resulted in him being promoted into the joi for this tournament. Those slots in the rankings (maegashira 1 to 4) are extremely difficult to survive in, since they mandate that the wrestlers there face a murderers’ row of opponents in the first week of the tournament, including both yokozuna (often on back-to-back days).
Fujinokawa has never faced the elite of the division, namely Onosato, Hoshoryu and Aonishiki. I’m fascinated by how he will approach these match-ups and how those opponents will respond to him. I believe Fujinokawa is going to throw himself, will full violence, at these stars. And, my gut instinct is that each of them will be able to handle it. However, if those three go into their bouts with Fujinokawa lightly, or without respecting what he can do, they might end up getting embarrassed (and losing pace on the race for the yusho).
Can The Waka Bros. Hold The Gate Shut?
Wakamotoharu and Wakatakakage are ranked at komusubi and maegashira 1 for this tournament. Across from them on the banzuke are Atamifuji and Yoshinofuji, both of whom are close to a decade younger. The Waka Bros. have enjoyed high places on the banzuke for much of the last ten years, but they are currently trying to hold onto their status while young wrestlers, like Atamifuji and Yoshinofuji, are trying to replace and surpass them.
They’ve been able to hold onto these spots for the last year, but things are getting tougher, as they advance further into their thirties while their surging rivals gain more maturity, experience and confidence. The Waka Bros. have likely reached their ceilings in the sport, with neither getting past the sekiwake rank. Both would love to give themselves one last shot at an ozeki promotion before their careers come to a close, though. The time to do that is running out fast.
While also trying to work towards the fabled ozeki rank, or perhaps even a late career championship, the Waka Bros. are also serving as gatekeepers in this tournament, with all those youngsters (including the aforementioned Fujinokawa) just below them in the rankings hoping to hop over them for the next tournament.
I’m keen to see whether the Waka Bros. are still good enough to hold onto their spots or whether this will be the point where we start to see them slide.
MORE SUMO ON COMBAT PRESS
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