Grand Sumo is back this month with the 2026 haru basho (spring tournament) in Osaka, Japan. This is the second tournament of the year, following the hatsu basho (new year tournament) we had in January, in Tokyo. Before every tournament the Japan Sumo Association releases their banzuke, a massive document that ranks every single wrestler in the grand sumo system.
You can see those rankings here:
The official rankings are largely based on wins and losses in the previous tournament. These Combat Press rankings are not based records. Instead, this list ranks wrestlers based on who I think is the most likely wrestler to win the top division championship this month.
1. Onosato (1)
Official rank: Yokozuna 1 west
Record at last tournament: 10-5
Onosato was hobbled in the January tournament, dealing with a shoulder injury. Despite that, he was still able to get ten wins and dominate Aonishiki (the eventual winner) when they faced off. The young yokozuna appears to still be below one hundred percent. But he’s so good that he’s still the favourite to win this tournament, in my eyes.
Onosato remains on pace, so long as this injury doesn’t linger for a very long time, to break all kinds of records in grand sumo. He already has five top division championships to his name (earned in just 14 tournaments) and a slew of special prizes.
This month he could snag an unwanted record, though. If he goes without a title, or a runners-up finish, that would give him the longest barren streak of his career (three tournaments). He’s not going to want that to happen and, if he’s a little better than he was in January, he should do a little better here — and that puts him in play for the title.
2. Aonishiki (2)
Official rank: Ozeki 1 east
Record at last tournament: 12-3 yusho
If Aonishiki wins the title this month, or finishes runner-up, he will be promoted to yokozuna. That will make him the 76th wrestler in about 400 years to receive that title. It will also make him the first ever yokozuna who was born in Europe.
I think he’s going to get that promotion this month, but I think it might be due to a runner-up finish. I only say this because he is so far winless against Onosato and, as I said above, I think all roads lead through him in this tournament.
The 21 year-old Aonishiki is a sensational talent and he also has lots of titles and records in his future. I believe he and Onosato will be trading titles back and forth for quite some time, but with Onosato really needing to re-establish himself as the top dog in the sport, I think he’s going to have the slight edge on the Ukrainian phenom.
3. Hoshoryu (3)
Official rank: Yokozuna 1 east
Record at last tournament: 10-5
Hoshoryu remains the most electrifying talent in the sport with a game that includes high powered throws and a whole heap of attitude. It’s been over a year since he won his second ever title and he must be desperate to add his third. Injuries have made things difficult over the past twelve months, but he appears to have a clean bill of health heading into Osaka.
I have him third, but only because Onosato and Aonishiki are so excellent. Hoshoryu has a dominating record against Onosato. He’s the only man in the sport who can say that. But he’s winless against Aonishiki. Hoshoryu, for all his prowess, does have a tendency to cough up cheap wins early in the tournament, though.
That habit, paired with his difficulties with Aonishiki, have me thinking he will come close to the title, but end up behind the two men listed above.
4. Kirishima (5)
Official rank: Sekiwake 1 east
Record at previous tournament: 10-5, kanto-sho
Kirishima has hit a good run of form lately as he works to regain the ozeki ranking he lost two years ago (mostly due to persistent neck problems). When he is healthy and on a run, Kirishima is one of the most exciting and interesting wrestlers to watch. He’s a silky smooth technician who can also summon up a ton of raw power.
He’s a dark horse to win this title due to his experience (two past championships) and how confident and comfortable he is in high pressure matches with the other big names. He’s taken plenty of wins over Hoshoryu, his old judo teammate, over the past few years and in the last tournament he notched his first victory over Aonishiki. He remains winless against Onosato and that will likely eliminate him from a number of championships in the near future.
If Onosato is off his game, though, and there’s an opportunity for wrestlers ranked a little lower to squeeze themselves into a title picture, Kirishima feels like he might be one who is best primed to take advantage of that.
5. Atamifuji (13)
Official rank: Komusubi 1 west
Record at previous tournament: 12-3 yusho-doten, kanto-sho, kinboshi (x2)
Atamifuji was the runner-up in the last tournament. That’s his fourth time finishing second. Despite losing out to Aonishiki in January, he can take a lot of positives from the experience. In his early runner up finishes, he cracked under the pressure and fought with a lot of anxiety. This time around he was just beaten by skill. He seemed very eager for that last fight and I think that shows he might have levelled up lately when it comes to maturity and confidence.
He’s at his highest ever ranking in this tournament. That can spell trouble for some wrestlers. However, given what I saw in the last tournament, I think Atamifuji might be ready to take this promotion in his stride.
I don’t think he’s a serious threat to win a title in March, but I think he’s the best of the rest when you discount the names I’ve already mentioned.
Full rankings
- Onosato (1)
- Aonishiki (2)
- Hoshoryu (3)
- Kirishima (5)
- Atamifuji (13)
- Yoshinofuji (4)
- Kotozakura (6)
- Takayasu (7)
- Wakatakakage (8)
- Wakamotoharu (10)
- Hakunofuji (11)
- Hiradoumi (20)
- Oho (9)
- Churanoumi (18)
- Fujinokawa (NR)
- Daieisho (14)
- Abi (NR)
- Asanoyama (NR)
- Kotoshoho (NR)
- Takanosho (15)
Just missed the cut: Oshoumi, Oshoma, Tokihayate.
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