UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez Preview and Predictions

After taking a week off for Valentine’s Day, the UFC returns to action this weekend as the Octagon heads to Houston for a Fight Night with world class middleweights donning the marquee.

Former champion Sean Strickland failed in his bid to reclaim the belt when he last fought. He will look to return to his winning ways and show off his highly technical boxing skills over twenty-five minutes when he takes on Anthony Hernandez. “Fluffy” has looked unbeatable recently, with eight consecutive victories. Most recently, he submitted Roman Dolidze in the fourth round of their fight back in August of 2025. This will be his third main event in his last four fights and a win would move him into contention for a potential title shot.

In the co-main event, welterweight sluggers will clash in a fight that nobody thinks will last the full three rounds. Geoff Neal has lived up to his “Handz of Steel” nickname by knocking out ten of his professional opponents. Across the cage from him will be another daunting puncher in Uros Medic. “The Doctor” is yet to hear a single judge’s scorecard be read as a mixed martial artist. His twelve wins and three losses have all come inside the distance, matching Neal with ten knockouts.

The main card also features a matchup between two extremely talented featherweights. Dan Ige has struggled lately, losing three of his last four fights. Over that stretch he does have a TKO win over Sean Woodson and all three of his losses have been via decision. Melquizael Costa has been red hot as of late, rattling off five wins in a row and taking out a couple of the division’s most exciting fighters in Julian Erosa and Andre Fili. Adding a veteran like Ige to his resume would be a huge feather in his cap.

UFC Houston airs live on Paramount+ starting at 5 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-to-Toe.

Sean Strickland hasn’t lost a non-title fight since 2022; can he continue that streak and defeat Anthony Hernandez?

Sumian: The buzz and excitement that people feel about Sean Strickland in 2026 is puzzling to me. The former UFC middleweight champion has one finish since May of 2021 despite continuously telling his opponents and the fans that he is going to war and destroy his opponents. Yes, he had an outstanding performance against Israel Adesayna to claim the title, but his overall style is predictable, boring, and uneventful. Nevertheless, he is 4-2 in his last six UFC appearances, has a loud mouth, and has only lost to former middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis in that span. There is no doubt that Strickland is a skilled, calculated and mature fighter capable of outpointing the majority of the middleweight division. To get back to the top of the division, he needs a breakout performance that will have fans calling for his third attempt at the title in less than 3 years.

I really hate that we were robbed of Reinier de Ridder versus Anthony Hernandez. Yes, Brendan Allen went on to decimate de Ridder which was surprising to say the least, but the matchup was truly great on paper. Instead, ‘Fluffy’ will be tasked with taking on one of the consistent and calculated fighters in the division. The number four ranked Hernandez is currently on a eight fight win streak and most recently defeated ranked middleweights Brendan Allen and Roman Dolidze. The Allen win is even more impressive after seeing what he was able to do against de Ridder less than six months ago. For Hernandez, this is it. If he defeats Strickland, he is undoubtedly next in line for a title shot, especially since many people believe he has one of the more intriguing styles to utilize against current middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev.

It would be really nice to see a finish in this fight either way it goes. However, I just do not see it happening. Hernandez’s best offense is his submission skills and Strickland has never been submitted and boasts a strong 76% takedown defense rating. Hernandez also averages a subpar 49% striking defense and that is what Strickland does best, stick and move. This will be a 49-46 decision victory for Strickland. It won’t be dramatic or exciting, but enough to earn him the victory and maintain his ranking.

Petela: If both men can nullify each other’s strengths this could be a snoozer. Sean Strickland will probably defend most of Anthony Hernandez’s takedowns but because he is preoccupied with preventing the takedowns he won’t be able to throw extended combinations. This fight will play out in the following fashion: Hernandez changes levels, Strickland defends, Strickland lands a jab, Hernandez clinches and controls the fight along the cage, repeat. It will take some explosive action to stop the repetition, either a successful shot from Hernandez that gets the fight to the mat or a flush connection from Strickland that puts Hernandez on his back foot. My opinion is that it will be a takedown from Hernandez that changes the fight. He won’t submit Strickland but he will be able to control position and land a bit of ground and pound. If that happens in the first or second round, it will make Strickland even more hesitant to engage as the fight goes on and that will in turn make this an incredibly boring fight. If Strickland is able to stay upright for the first couple rounds and then gets taken down in round three or four, it may actually make the fight more exciting late because the outcome of the fight will be in the balance. This will be a high level display of mixed martial arts but for the casual fans and the people who just want to see non-stop action it is not going to be all that entertaining. I see Hernandez getting his hand raised and Strickland complaining afterwards about how all he did was lay on him and he will probably say something that teeters the line between funny and homophobic. A win is a win, but this win won’t be enough to earn Hernandez a crack at the title in his next fight. What it will do is mark the end of Strickland’s hope of ever fighting for the championship again.

Uros Medic has never gone the distance in his professional mixed martial arts career; does wily veteran Geoff Neal use his experience to force Medic into deep waters in this co-main event?

Petela: Nope. Geoff Neal was once on the cusp of being an elite welterweight but those days are gone. On the other hand, Uros Medic is in his prime and will use Neal as a stepping stone towards the rankings at 170 lbs. I do not like this fight for Neal. He should be fighting other guys who have earned some popularity with fans and who are also past their primes. Taking on a prime Medic is going to end poorly for the Fortis MMA product. He may only be 35 years old but he has been fighting professionally for over 13 years, not to mention an amateur career before that and a stint as a collegiate football player. There are many, many miles on his engine and those miles have taken a toll. His lone victory in his last four fights came against Rafael dos Anjos, the type of fighter he should be taking on at this point, and it ended with RDA blowing out his knee 90 seconds into the contest.

Medic is a monster. His hands are heavy and he seemingly has the power of a light heavyweight while fighting at welterweight. He doesn’t shy away from danger, which cost him in his loss to Punahele Soriano, and knows that as a fighter he doesn’t get paid by the minute because he looks to end things in the first round. His last three wins have all come in under two and a half minutes. He will be able to draw Neal into a brawl, which three years ago may have been a bad idea, and with his speed advantage and thunderous power he will score a vicious knockout that closes the show early. He takes the 12 spot in the rankings from Neal after this clash.

Sumian: Have to agree with my colleague on this one. I have always been a fan of Neal and he has fought the best of the best in the welterweight division. Just seems like has too much mileage on him and a few really brutal losses. Medic certainly has momentum after two back to back first round finishes and he should carry that into this performance. Medic by second round TKO.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Is there any other answer besides Michel Pereira? Seriously, what happened to this guy? The Brazilian specimen was on an eight fight win streak and seemed poised to make a run for the middleweight title. Instead, he hit a brick wall and suffered three back to back losses courtesy of Anthony Hernandez, Abusupiyan Magomedov, and Kyle Daukaus. Pereira desperately needs a strong showing and will need to channel his risky yet exciting style to do so.

Petela: To answer Andrew first, yes there is another answer. I don’t disagree with Michel Pereira’s roster spot being on the line but if Phil Rowe doesn’t get a win he will probably be on the outside looking in at the UFC. Rowe has lost three of his last four and his only win in that stretch was against Ange Loosa who is no longer in the UFC. I don’t really see him getting a win this weekend against newcomer Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani who comes into the promotion after a 68 second knockout win on the Contender Series and a 7-1 stint with LFA. He can finish fights by knockout or submission and can get those knockouts with both punches and kicks. This is the end of the line for Rowe.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Punahele Soriano. Styles make fights and this one is a great style matchup. Brahimaj is a nasty grappler with 12 of his 13 wins coming by submission. He shone against Austin Vanderford in his last fight and showed that he is very durable. Soriano likes to use his hands to end fights but does have a brown belt in Judo. If he can remain upright he may be able to wear down Brahimaj and score a knockout. Whether we see a submission or a knockout, this one will not go the distance.

Sumian: It may seem like a cop out answer but anytime Dan Ige fights, I need to mention his name. Dan Ige and Melquizael Costa are going to go to war and beat the heck out of each other. This fight is going to deliver fireworks and perhaps one of the best fights of the year.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Ante Delija. He is going to make three losses in a row for Serghei Spivac and earn a bonus while doing so. The fact that Spivac is number seven in the heavyweight rankings says you need to know about the heavyweight division.

Petela: Chidi Njokuani. He takes on Carlos Leal this weekend, who is a fellow knockout artist so these two will stand and trade in the center of the cage early and often. It won’t make it past the second round and as the bigger man and bigger puncher Njokuani will come out on top. Size and power are not insurmountable but Leal typically relies on his power to win fights so he won’t have the skills to make Njokuani uncomfortable by taking the fight to the canvas. It will be fun as long as it lasts and it will end in devastating fashion.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Dubai chocolate. Apparently it has been hyped up online recently but it really isn’t anything special. That’s exactly like Sean Strickland. He runs his mouth and talks a great game but he is one of the least exciting fighters to actually watch. He’s wildly talented and uses the Philly shell better than anyone else in mixed martial arts but he’s definitely not must watch television.

Sumian: Chicken wings. I like this card from top to bottom. It is not the first thing I would watch if I had multiple options, much like chicken wings. But, it delivers on what a UFC fight night should possess which is a solid main event, several fights between ranked fighters, and not taking place in the APEX Center.