UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Preview and Predictions

The UFC returns to action this weekend, as the Octagon heads to Mexico City for a Fight Night filled with hometown favorites.

Former champion Brandon Moreno is coming off a tough outing against Tatsuro Taira, but will look to rebound against Lone’er Kavanagh in front of a hometown crowd. Moreno was originally supposed to face Asu Almabayev but the latter pulled out of the bout due to a hand injury. Moreno is currently 2-3 in his last five UFC appearances and will need a decisive victory to keep his aspirations of getting back to the title alive. Kavanagh is coming off a second round knockout courtesy of Charles Johnson and will look to rebound against one of the greatest flyweights in MMA history.

In the co-main event, the action heads to the bantamweight division and is a true veteran-versus-prospect matchup. Marlon “Chito” Vera has not tasted victory since Aug. 2023 and will no doubt be eager to silence the streaking David Martinez. Martinez is coming off the biggest win of his MMA career at the expense of Rob Font and has all the looks of a future bantamweight contender.

The main card also features another classic veteran-versus-prospect matchup between Daniel Zellhuber and King Green. The remainder of the card features a number of Mexican fighters, which will surely get the crowd going once the action begins.

UFC Mexico airs live on Paramount+ starting at 5 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-to-Toe.

Lone’er Kavanagh steps into this main event on the heels of his first professional loss; how does he fare against a former champion in Brandon Moreno?

Sumian: Going to keep this short and sweet. Brandon Moreno is going to win this fight handedly. Respect to Lone’er Kavanagh for stepping up on short notice and being willing to travel to Mexico to face one of the greatest flyweights in MMA history. However, the difference in experience is simply way too large. Moreno has 32 professional MMA bouts under his belt and has consistently faced top-ranked flyweights since 2017. Kavanagh is coming off his first professional loss, but he is only 10 fights into his professional MMA career and has the potential to make strides, as he continues to get better. Unfortunately, it will not happen against Moreno.

Moreno will win this fight by first round TKO as the Mexicans erupt in celebration.

Petela: This isn’t exactly a squash match, but it is damn close. A short-notice opponent for the former champion is exactly what the doctor ordered. He will be able to get his swagger back and dominate Kavanagh in front of a home crowd which will be enough to rebuild his confidence to rattle off a couple more wins and then buoy him back into title contention. I agree with Andrew, this one doesn’t make it past the first round.

Marlon Vera has lost three fights in a row; can he halt a streaking David Martinez in the co-main event?

Petela: Marlon Vera is one of those cases of what could have been. He had all the talent, toughness, and tutelage in the world, but he just simply couldn’t put it together consistently enough to capture gold. The best version of him is no longer around, as he’s past his prime. This weekend he will serve as a stepping stone for David Martinez, who is moving up the rankings and will potentially become a title challenger within the next twelve to eighteen months.

Sumian: Marlon Vera is one of the most puzzling fighters in UFC history. For someone with so much raw tenacity and finishing potential, he has a very difficult time knowing when to turn up the heat and go after his opponent with needed aggression. The former title challenger is currently on a three-fight losing streak and has amassed a 1-4 record since Mar. 2023. Whatever smoke Vera had back in 2022 is long gone, and I do not believe we will ever see the aggression needed to stay relevant in an always improving bantamweight division.

On the other hand, Martinez is flying sky high. The Mexico native is currently riding a nine-fight winning streak after suffering his professional loss back in 2025. His most recent win is at the expense of former top-ranked bantamweight Rob Font, and he will look to continue this momentum, as he takes Vera in the co-main event.

This one is pretty easy for me. I have not seen anything from Vera in the last two years that would convince me he is a top-tier bantamweight, and Martinez is hungrier than ever. He will not finish Vera, but he will win a dominant 30-27 decision to take the cake.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Daniel Zellhuber by leaps and bounds. No, he will not get cut if he suffers a loss to King Green, but this is the definition of a tune-up fight. Zellhuber is currently on a two-fight losing streak after being touted as one of the best prospects to join the UFC roster in 2022. He will have all the physical advantages in this bout to make it look convincing against the former top-ranked Green and will need to execute to keep his aspirations alive.

Petela: I’ll go with his opponent, King Green. He did beat Lance Gibson Jr. in his last fight, but that was a snoozefest, and, prior to that, he got stopped twice in a row. A devastating loss to Zellhuber will be all she wrote for the longtime UFC veteran.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Cristian Quinonez vs. Kris Moutinho. I’ll borrow a line from legendary commentator Jimmy Smith and say that toughness without talent makes a beating more exciting. Moutinho is as tough as they come, but he just isn’t that talented. He will make this fight fun in the sense that it will be remarkable to see his durability on display.

Sumian: This is a pretty weak card, but it features a lot of hometown action, which will keep the crowd hungry and engaged. For some reason, I am looking forward to the women’s bantamweight bout between Ailin Perez and Macy Chiasson. I have this gut feeling that both women will bring the best out of each other and deliver a fight to remember.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Daniel Zellhuber. I think he knock outs King Green in exciting fashion and gets back on track as an up-and-coming prospect.

Petela: Brandon Moreno. He will shine in the main event. Getting back on track in epic fashion will be one of few memorable moments on this card, and it will score him a post-fight bonus.

Pair this card with…

Petela: A date night. This is the card to miss if you’re going to miss one. You probably didn’t get credit from your better half on Valentine’s Day, because there was no UFC event, so skip this one, find a fancy restaurant that you can get last-minute reservations and catch the fights on Sunday morning.

Sumian: An epic dessert after a bad meal. This card is really weak, to say the least. There is really not much to get excited about from bottom to top except Brandon Moreno. Like the dessert that saves the day after a bad meal, Moreno will come in and finish Kavanagh and send the crowd in a frenzy to cap off the night.