UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira Preview and Predictions

For the first time since moving to Paramount+, the UFC will host a fight card inside the newly named Meta Apex. Sitting atop the card is a clash of bantamweights who are looking to solidify their positions as two of the best fighters in the division. Mario Bautista meets a streaking Vinicius Oliveira in a matchup between ranked fighters. Bautista currently holds the ninth position at 135 pounds, while Oliveira sits at No. 11. Should Bautista hold serve, he will likely earn himself a fight against a fighter closer to the top of the division. If Oliveira is able to beat Bautista, he will see himself inside the top ten for the first time in his UFC career.

The co-main event takes place in the flyweight division with longtime veteran of the sport Kyoji Horiguchi squaring off against Amir Albazi. Both of these fighters are inside the top 10, as Albazi sits at No. 6 and Horiguchi at No. 8. Horiguchi has been in the sport for over a decade and a half, competing against the very best mixed martial artists across the world. Albazi enters this fight on the heels of his first UFC loss, as well as a layoff of over a year. He will try to prove Dominick Cruz correct by showing that there is no such thing as ring or cage rust.

Also on the main card is a heavyweight showdown between Jailton Almeida and Rizvan Kuniev. Both of these fighters have losses to Curtis Blaydes and need a victory to show fans and UFC executives that they belong among the top fighters in the heavyweight division.

UFC Vegas 113 airs live on Paramount+ starting at 5 p.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-to-Toe.

Vinicius Oliveira has yet to lose since joining the UFC; can he maintain that streak against a talented opponent like Mario Bautista?

Sumian: This is a really tough test for the ultra-talented Vinicius Oliveira, and the bantamweight division continues to be as exciting as possible. A victory over Mario Bautista will launch the Brazilian inside the top 10 at 135 pounds and put him one step closer to title contention. For Bautista, a loss to “Lokdog” effectively ends his contendership at 135, despite facing Jose Aldo, Patchy Mix and Umar Nurmagomedov in his last three fights.

There is no doubt that Bautista is going to go after Oliveira and continuously pressure him for three straight rounds. A finish for the Nevada native is unlikely, given his style and recent performances. He will need to avoid the power and striking of Oliveira for three straight rounds, and pull off a convincing unanimous decision, if he hopes to be victorious. For Oliveira, the gameplan is pretty simple – do not fall victim to Bautista’s relentless style and keep enough distance to find a power shot and knock him out. Finishing Bautista is easier said than done but he has suffered two losses by finish.

This is a great Fight Night main event and is worthy of the mantle. The easy answer would be to take to Bautista by decision, but I am going to take Oliveira winning this fight 29-28 on all three scorecards. He will not be able to finish the ultra-tough Bautista, but he will do enough damage to be up on all scorecards.

Petela: These two are only two spots away from one another in the rankings, but it seems like Mario Bautista is a much more proven commodity than Vinicius Oliveira. Bautista has fought the likes of Patchy Mix, Jose Aldo, and Ricky Simon and has defeated all three of them. His lone loss in his last nine fights is against Umar Nurmagomedov, a former title challenger and probably a future title challenger as well. While Oliveira also has a win over Simon, he hasn’t fought nearly the same level of competition over his six-fight winning streak.

Oliveira has built his career as a knockout artist, but once he started making his way towards the top half of the bantamweight division, he hasn’t been able to score those finishes. He went the distance with Simon, Said Nurmagomedov, and Kyler Phillips. I don’t think he can match Bautista skill-for-skill, so he will have to rely on his power. Bautista is no stranger to going the distance, as he has more wins by decision than any other method of victory. The longer this fight goes, the more the experience and talent of Bautista will shine. If he can avoid getting clipped early, he will be able to control the pace of this fight, dictate the distance at which they strike, and land the higher volume of strikes. Barring a lapse in striking defense, this one goes the way of Bautista by a wide margin on the scorecards.

There was a time when Kyoji Horiguchi was one of the best flyweights on the planet; will we see that version of the Japanese fighter this weekend against Amir Albazi?

Petela: Kyoji Horiguchi is only 35 years old? That sounds unbelievable to me, since I’ve been watching him fight at an elite level for a decade and a half. 35 isn’t exactly old, but for a fighter it’s usually past his prime, especially at flyweight. Not to mention, Horiguchi has 41 professional mixed martial arts fights. He isn’t the same fighter he once was, and that will be on display in his fight against Amir Albazi. Being half a step slower at flyweight makes all the difference in the world. Horiguchi and Albazi are both well rounded fighters, like everyone at a high level in the flyweight division, so, no matter where this fight goes, we will be in for a treat. If they were both in their prime, I’d give Horiguchi the edge in both the striking and grappling, but that half step that he has lost since then will make a huge difference. He will get caught with punches he used to avoid and get taken down by level changes that he would have previously defended and reversed. This one will be a grind from start to finish, with Albazi getting his hand raised at the end for a win by unanimous decision.

Sumian: Horiguchi is going to hand Amir Albazi his first defeat by way of finish. The Japanese superstar still has enough left in the tank, and he will make a big statement by defeating Albazi in the co-main event. I have not seen anything from the Iraqi native that convinces me he is better than Horiguchi, even at 35 years old. His best win came at the expense of the incredibly overrated Kai Kara-France, and he got utterly dominated by Brandon Moreno in Nov. 2024. Horiguchi by second-round TKO.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Jailton Almeida. This guy is in serious need of a high-profile win, and he needs to make it entertaining. His last fight against Alexander Volkov had to be one of the worst heavyweight fights in recent memory. The funny thing is that Almeida is fully capable of finishing opponents. He has only gone to the scorecards once in his entire MMA career, and he needs to find that killer instinct again to make up for his performance in Oct. 2025. If he puts on another stinker, I can truly see the UFC parting ways with him.

Petela: Niko Price. A once borderline elite-level talent, “The Hybrid” is nowhere close to being near the top of his game. He has lost five of his last seven fights, including his last two, and he hasn’t seen consecutive wins since 2018. I fully understand that he needs to continue fighting to support his family of seven kids, but it just seems like, each time he gets in the cage, he takes unnecessary damage. This should be his last fight regardless of the outcome.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wiklacz. If this fight stays standing, Gafurov will probably deliver a brutal knockout, but, if it gets to the canvas, Wiklacz will probably score a slick submission. Regardless, this one will be exciting, and someone will get finished.

Sumian: My favorite fight on the card is probably the bantamweight matchup between Jean Matsumoto and Farid Basharat. It’s not necessarily a sleeper, but I believe it has the chance of delivering the most entertaining fight of the evening.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Danil Donchenko. Unfortunately for Alex Morono, Donchenko will win this fight by knockout and earn a well-deserved bonus.

Petela: Michal Oleksiejczuk. He will stand and slug it out with Marc-Andre Barriault in a fight you don’t want to miss. These two will show off highly technical boxing skills and brutalize each other’s bodies, as they look to slow one another down. In the end, it will be Oleksiejczuk who gets the job done and scores a finish, I’m thinking probably with a third-round left hook to the liver of Barriault.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Pierogis. Two fighters on this card who I expect to notch impressive wins are from Poland – Michal Oleksiejczuk and Jakub Wiklacz. So, fry up a batch of the delicious Polish staple to chow down on while you watch them do their thing.

Sumian: Potato chips. It is a staple for any gathering and party. It is not going to blow the socks off anyone’s pallet, but you best believe that all partygoers will indulge and take part. This card is a good bowl of potato chips. It gets the job done and provides us a welljobsfueled fight night card.