UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Preview and Predictions

The UFC started off 2026 with a bang, as they crowned a new interim lightweight champion in an early Fight of the Year contender, as Justin Gaethje beat Paddy Pimblett like a rented mule for five rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory. The promotion hopes to build on that momentum this weekend, as they head Down Under with featherweight gold on the line.

Less than a year ago, Alexander Volkanovski reclaimed the championship, left vacant by Ilia Topuria, by defeating Diego Lopes. The pair won Fight of the Night for their efforts at UFC 314 and the promotion decided to run it back, this time in Volkanovski’s home country of Australia. The 37-year-old Aussie will once again try to force Lopes to fight at a measured pace and use his superior technique to quell the firepower coming back at him by the Brazilian stalwart. The well-rounded Lopes has notched 23 of his 27 victories by finish and will look to pressure Volkanovski into a slugfest where the challenger should have the advantage.

In the co-main event, a pair of can’t-miss lightweights will square off in a fight that has both casual and hardcore fans counting down the days until this fight. Dan Hooker will have a friendly audience in Australia, as he hails from neighboring New Zealand. He will look to be buoyed by the crowd to topple former French Special Forces soldier Benoit Saint-Denis. Hooker comes into this fight after losing by submission to Arman Tsarukyan, and Saint-Denis enters the contest with quite the opposite momentum, as he absolutely demolished Beneil Dariush in 16 seconds when they met back in November at UFC 322.

Two more pairs of lightweights will also be featured on the main card as Rafael Fiziev takes on Mauricio Ruffy in another sure-fire fight, and, for the first time in promotional history, two Australian fighters will fight one another in front of an Australian crowd, as Quillan Salkilld meets Jamie Mullarkey. Splitting up those two bouts is a heavyweight fight, as slugger Tai Tuivasa tries to snap a five-fight losing streak and hand Tallison Teixeira his second loss in a row.

The UFC 325 early prelims air live on UFC Fight Pass and Paramount+ starting at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary and main cards on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET and 9 p.m. ET, respectively. Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.

The main event is a rematch of a fight that happened less than a year ago; has either fighter had time to make enough adjustments that will lead this fight to look any different than the first encounter?

Sumian: I just do not see a way this fight doesn’t go the exact same way it did last year. Alexander Volkanovski is the same fighter he was back in Apr. 2025, and he is inarguably the better fighter at this point in time. Diego Lopes is a fun and enticing name to throw in the main event, but he is undeniably undeserving of getting a second crack at the title after struggling with Jean Silva last September. He ultimately went on to defeat Silva in exciting fashion, but he clearly has holes in his game, which is precisely what Volkanovski targets when he gameplans for his opponents.

This fight is a fun way to continue kicking off the Paramount era, and it will probably be a lot more exciting than if Lerone Murphy or Movsar Evloev were involved. Can Lopes land the shot and potentially knock Volk out? Sure, but it seems unlikely given how good the champ is at avoiding those big shots and continuously moving. These two will yet again go five rounds and try to beat each other up. The champion will once again retain his belt and defeat Lopes via unanimous decision.

Petela: This rematch doesn’t need to happen. I mean, sure, the first fight was good, but it wasn’t something anyone was clamoring to see again. Especially given the talent-stacked featherweight division, there were plenty of other options to take on Alexander Volkanovski. Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy are fighting one another in March, and either of them would have been a good choice for the first defense of Volkanovski’s second title run. They both fell out of favor a bit with the UFC in 2025 for different reasons, and it is certainly not beyond the promotion to be petty and spiteful enough to avoid giving them a title shot because of that. Even if that was the case, Aljamain Sterling isn’t undeserving of a crack at the belt. All in all, this fight just doesn’t need to happen, and it bums me out that we aren’t getting a fresh matchup.

As far as the actual in-cage combat, I don’t think this will be any different than the first fight. Volkanovski will dictate the pace, slow things down, and turn it into a technical battle, while getting the better of the extended exchanges. Lopes will be puzzled, as he tries to get a read on the timing of the champion. He may land a few big shots, and, maybe, this is the fight where Volkanovski suddenly looks old, but I don’t think that is the case. Another unanimous decision win for the incumbent in a fight that is altogether forgettable.

The co-main event should be bananas; will Dan Hooker or Benoit Saint-Denis get his hand raised?

Petela: Daggum, am I excited for this clash. These two don’t know how to be in boring fights. As a natural cynic, it scares me when fights look like a sure-fire slobberknocker on paper. I have nightmares about Derrick Lewis vs. Francis Ngannou and Paul Daley vs. Michael “Venom” Page. This co-main event is such a guaranteed banger that I’m terrified we get a dud. Outside of that irrational fear, I think we see two of the best lightweights on the planet slug it out for a while. This one will be back and forth until Benoit Saint-Denis decides it is in his best interest to wrestle, where he will have a clear advantage. That’s going to be what gets him the win. He will be able to batter Dan Hooker late in the fight to overcome two close rounds that probably has the scorecards even going into the final round. Hooker is too durable for his own good, so that leads me to believe that this one goes the distance but the Frenchman gets the win this weekend in a fight that steals the show from the main event.

Sumian: To reiterate what my colleague said, this fight rules and is undoubtedly the most exciting scrap of the evening. Dan Hooker is a staple of entertainment and BDS is quickly becoming a household name due to his raw power and entertaining style. I think this fight will be super fun, but ultimately one sided. I expect Benoit Saint-Denis to beat Hooker up for three rounds, land some massive shots, and take him down and reign on the ground-and-pound. Hooker is too tough for his own good, which makes him so popular. BSD by unanimous decision.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 325?

Sumian: I am going to go out on a limb here and say Mauricio Ruffy. Rafael Fiziev is a super tough opponent and has fought some of the best fighters in the world. However, I think Ruffy will come into this fight extremely prepared and utilize his length and reach to hurt Fiziev consistently. A win for the Brazilian launches him into the top ten of the lightweight rankings.

Petela: I’ll say Lerone Murphy. He should be next in line for a title shot at featherweight. He gets to fight an even older Alexander Volkanovski who will have put more miles on his engine after the rematch with Diego Lopes. He should be fighting Volkanovski instead of Lopes this weekend, but, in the long run, it’ll be a blessing that Murphy has more time to prepare and more time for Volkanovski to potentially lose a step. If Volkanovski takes a decent amount of damage in this contest, it gives Murphy a better-than-decent shot at earning the title should he be next in line for a crack at the belt.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 325?

Petela: Paramount+. Their first event was pretty great, aside from making fans change streams to watch the main card after the prelims ended, as if it was an actual PPV. This card is overseas, which brings technical difficulties on its own, and the main event will be more technical, but less exciting, than the main event at UFC 324. Many fans tuned in last week, and the product convinced them to tune in again this weekend and will probably lose their interest after this event.

Sumian: The hometown crowd. The UFC could have done a much better job in loading this card up with fighters from Down Under. Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya, Jake Matthews, Kai Kara-France and Carlos Ulberg would have been great options to throw onto this card and make it a true spectacle for Sydney.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Someone has to say it, so I will. Tai Tuivasa is not a UFC-caliber fighter anymore. Maybe he never was and was getting away with carrying some powerful thunder in his hands. He is 0-5 since Sep. 2022 and has looked worse and worse with every performance. He is very popular and likeable with the fans, but, at some point, it will be time to leave the UFC.

Petela: Cody Brundage. He has one of the most bizarre records in the entirety of mixed martial arts. He lost his last fight, before that he had a technical decision loss overturned to a draw after a clash of heads stopped him from being able to fight. Prior to that, he had an impressive performance against Julian Marquez, but just before the Marquez win, he has a no-contest against Abdul Razak Alhassan. The Alhassan fight was going disastrously for Brundage before he got hit with illegal elbows. Without a statement win this weekend, he could find himself on the outside of the UFC looking in, but he’s only 31, so he still has time to potentially make a second run on the big stage.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: This card doesn’t do much for me if I’m totally honest. If it were an ESPN+ pay-per-view, I doubt I’d shell out the money to buy it, so, with that in mind, I don’t think there is a sleeper match-up. I’m sure a couple early fights will make me eat my words, but all in all, outside of the main and co-main events, this card is a run-of-the-mill Apex card, in my opinion.

Sumian: I am trying my best to find something on the prelims that stands out, but this card is extremely weak overall. The main card itself is not worthy of a pay-per-view price tag, which is no longer an issue, thankfully. That being said, I am going with Kaan Ofili and Yi Zha. Both guys have a nice chunk of submission wins under their belt and combine for 28 finishes.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Quillan Salkilld. He is going to knock Jamie Mullarkey out and earn another impressive win under his belt. He is someone to keep an eye on in the lightweight division.

Petela: Benoit Saint-Denis. Normally, I look to find someone early in the card who has a good chance at stealing the show and earning the post-fight bonus, but this card just seems bland to me outside of the final two fights. If it goes the distance, as I expect, he and Dan Hooker will get Fight of the Night, but, if I’m wrong, and Saint-Denis gets the finish, it’ll be in impressive fashion and enough for a Performance of the Night bonus.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Leftovers. That about sums up this main event. We just saw this fight less than 12 months ago, and, while it was good, it wasn’t something that we were clamoring to see again. So, throw that run of the mill baked chicken and mashed potatoes in the microwave as you watch this event.

Sumian: This is what happens when you try to put on two back-to-back numbered cards in a row. It doesn’t work, and one of them ends up being really mediocre. The last two fights are going to be fun, so I guess pair this with your pregame? Spend about 45 minutes having some drinks and watching the fights before going out for the evening.