UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Preview and Predictions

A new era begins this weekend as the UFC makes it’s debut on the new broadcast home, Paramount+. For the first card of the new seven-plus-billion-dollar deal, the promotion put together a card full of action fighters from top to bottom. Not only is this the first fight card on Paramount+, it is also the first card of 2026, which means the winner of the main event will officially be the first newly crowned champion of the year.

With Ilia Topuria out of action for a while as he handles personal challenges, former interim champion Justin Gaethje looks to become a two-time interim champion by defeating brash Englishman Paddy Pimblett. Gaethje comes into this fight on the heels of a unanimous decision win over Rafael Fiziev in the pair’s rematch. He has been outspoken about what a loss, particularly a stoppage loss, means for him at this point in his career, so this may be the final time we see “The Highlight” enter the Octagon. Pimblett has passed test after test, as he has made his way from loudmouth prospect to legitimate contender. Still, there are some fans and pundits who don’t buy into the hype and think it has been a series of favorable matchups that have led “The Baddy” to this interim title shot.

The co-main event was supposed to be a women’s bantamweight title fight between current champion Kayla Harrison and retired former champion Amanda Nunes. This was billed as the matchup of two of the greatest women ever to compete in the sport but unfortunately it isn’t happening. Harrison was forced to withdraw from the bout after a neck injury. Moving up into the co-main event slot is now a men’s bantamweight fight between former champion Sean O’Malley and rising contender Song Yadong. With a shakeup at the top of the division after Petr Yan’s win over Merab Dvalishvili, the winner of this fight could have the inside track at a title opportunity in his next fight.

The UFC 324 early prelims air live on UFC Fight Pass and Paramount+ starting at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary and main cards on Paramount+ at 7 p.m. ET and 9 p.m. ET, respectively.Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.

The lightweight division will crown an interim champion at the conclusion of the main event; can Justin Gaethje earn a piece of the title for a second time in his career?

Sumian: The stakes that hang in the balance for these two combatants are entirely different going into Saturday night. For Justin Gaethje, this is the last dance. A loss to Paddy Pimblett will effectively end his contendership as a UFC lightweight and will send him into retirement or gatekeeper status. If he does secure a victory, it sets him up for a huge payday and title fight against either Arman Tsarukyan or Ilia Topuria before the end of 2026. For Paddy Pimblett, the stakes are pretty low. Yes, if he loses, he will get a ton of criticism given his outspoken personality, but he will still be extremely well-liked by the UFC and popular among his fanbase. Either way, this should be a fun one to kick off 2026 as we enter the Paramount era.

Gaethje has been a superstar since joining the UFC back in 2017, and his time as a UFC lightweight is quickly approaching the end. Since joining the promotion, he has collected both the UFC interim lightweight championship and the BMF title while providing the MMA community with some of the most memorable moments in history. For Gaethje, a win is essential to keep his hopes of undisputed lightweight king alive. He is 0-2 in undisputed title fights and is approaching 38 years old in Nov. 2026. On top of that, he has been through some of the most grueling slugfests in lightweight history, which only hurt more as you get older as an elite competitor. Gaethje has probably two fights left before he hangs them up, and it will be up to him on how the story ends.

The MMA community has made a stink about Pimblett getting an interim title shot, and they have every right too. However, let’s not forget that the UFC is, first and foremost, a business, and Pimblett is undoubtedly one of their most popular assets in the game today. HJis last three victories came at the expense of Tony Ferguson, King Green and most recently Michael Chandler. There is no rhyme or reason as to why he is currently holding a number-five lightweight ranking, but as said moments ago, the UFC is a business, first and foremost. All that being said, Pimblett has definitely improved as a fighter, and this has been apparent every time he steps foot into the Octagon. On Saturday, he will take on the biggest test of his career and could find himself in the biggest fight of 2026 if he is able to defeat the legend Gaethje.

If this was two years ago, there is not a doubt in my mind that Gaethje would win handedly and hand Paddy Pimblett a sound beating. However, in 2026, that is looking less likely. I expect Gathje to push the pressure early and fire off a number of leg kicks and left hook combinations to smother the less experienced Pimblett. Pimblett gets hit quite often, but he is also capable of taking a punch and continuously moving forward. I truly do not believe this fight will get to the ground and will instead be a back-and-forth striking festival for five rounds. To put it simply, these two are going to beat the heck out of each other and put on a stellar performance.

Gaethje will be the one finding early success due to his experience and cardio, but this will only fire up the Englishman to give it back and win some points in the second half of the fight. This one goes to the scorecards and will result in Pimblett being crowned the interim UFC lightweight champion of the world. The fight will be close, and there will be many people upset with the results, but this is the fight game, and, generally, the UFC gets exactly what they want. The victory set up Pimblett for a huge showdown with either Topuria in the back half of 2026.

Petela: I just don’t believe in Paddy Pimblett. I know that he has wins over Ferguson, Green, and Chandler, but I just think he is a fraud. He has been given opportunistic matchups as he rises up the ranks and has faced elite fighters who are well past their prime. Even in this one, he’s not taking on the same Justin Gaethje that knocked out Dustin Poirier or the one who was a leg kick or two from stopping Khabib Nurmagomedov. 37 is old in fighter years. Hell, at 37 myself, I can’t even throw the tennis ball with my dog as long as I used to when I was a younger man.

However, I am not Gaethje, and I do not have the tenacity or toughness that he possesses even this late in his career. He won’t move as well as Pimblett, but his leg kicks will make a big difference early and will slow down the British fighter. Gaethje has incredible takedown defense, so he won’t be worried about getting into close range and potentially being forced to grapple with Pimblett. From those close range exchanges, Gaethje will be able to land those leg kicks and even the playing field when it comes to mobility. By the midway point in the fight, each man is going to have to be willing to give one to take one, and that is where Gaethje thrives. Once it becomes a technical brawl, it will be “The Highlight” moving downhill and forcing Pimblett to fight off his back foot. In the fourth round, the cumulative damage will be too much for Pimblett to take, he will wilt, and Gaethje will once again be the interim lightweight champion.

With Kayla Harrison injured, former bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley finds himself in the co-main event; can “Suga” score a win over Song Yadong in his first non main event since 2022?

Petela: The Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes fight was, in my opinion, the best possible fight the UFC could have made in 2026. It’s damn near a tragedy that we aren’t seeing it on the first card of the calendar year. Don’t get me wrong, Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong is a fine fight, and it certainly has title implications, but it’s not the two of the greatest fighters of all time, and former training partners, slugging it out for true GWOAT status.

I think this fight looks like most O’Malley fights, where he is confident that he can’t be touched by his opponent. A lot of pot shotting and show boating as he dances around, avoiding extended exchanges and any grappling. That will work for a while, but, eventually, Song will either be able to close distance and get a takedown or take a page out of his many Alpha Male training partners’ playbooks and jump on a guillotine to try and get the fight to the mat. From his back, Song will avoid absorbing much damage, and, as O’Malley tries to pass his guard, he will get a sweep and wind up on top in a dominant position. From there, he will grind away and slow down O’Malley. That will change the tide of the fight. Once his gas tank is diminished, “Suga” won’t be able to dictate the pace of the fight or avoid the exchanges. The longer the fight goes, the more of a grueling bout it will be, with a lot of clinches and dirty boxing. This one goes the distance, and it will be Song who gets his hand raised at the end of the contest.

Sumian: I really enjoy watching Song Yadong fight and believe he is one of the best bantamweights in the world. However, this is going to be Sean O’Malley’s show to run. He is going to be motivated, calculated and precise in his approach, which is when he performs best. He will hold a three-inch height advantage and a five-inch reach advantage over Yadong, which will be the difference in this fight. Slick combinations, front kicks, and precise jabs will allow O’Malley to dominantly earn a unanimous decision victory and secure another title fight with former rival Petr Yan.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 324?

Sumian: Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Derrick Lewis is a big step-up in competition for “Salsa Boy”, but I believe he is ready and capable of winning this fight. He will finish Lewis before the end of round two and find himself fighting for a title in the first half of 2027, once the top of the heavyweight division is scheduled and settled.

Petela: Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes. Their fight is off for now, but that just gives them time to build the buzz. Their fight falling apart at the last minute will be mentioned countless times on the broadcast, and it will have the new fans watching on the new platform excited to see the two women face off when the bout finally does come to fruition.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 324?

Petela: Arman Tsarukyan. It doesn’t matter who wins – he gets the short end of the stick. Tsarukyan should be competing for the title, and, in my opinion, is absolutely the best fighter in the lightweight division now that Islam Makhachev has moved up to welterweight. The UFC is certainly still mad about Tsarukyan’s last minute pull-out from his slated title fight against Makhachev at UFC 311 and punishing him by skipping over him for this interim title fight. More time on the shelf, in his prime, is not a good thing for the standout fighter, and he will probably have to wait until late 2026 or early 2027 before he gets his overdue title shot.

Sumian: Arnold Allen. At one point, Allen was considered one of the best featherweights in the world, but his lack of consistency was always the issue. He enters 2026 as the sixth-ranked featherweight, despite not holding a victory over any currently ranked featherweight. Jean Silva is going to come into the fight extremely motivated and violent. I believe he hands Allen his first ever loss by way of finish and takes up a top-ten ranking in the featherweight division.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Nikita Krylov. He suffered two brutal knockout defeats in 2025 and is on his way out of the top-15 rankings at light heavyweight. However, if he suffers a third straight loss at the hands of the unranked Modesatas Bukauskas, it would not be surprising to see the UFC choose to part ways.

Petela: Deiveson Figueiredo. He squeaked out a split decision win over Montel Jackson in his last fight and, before that, had lost two straight. He now faces perhaps the best fighter never to hold the bantamweight championship in Umar Nurmagomedov. It’s a recipe for disaster. Not only will it be yet another loss, but it will be painfully obvious that his days are over as a part of the wire at 135 pounds.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev. Gautier has been absolutely blasting people into unconsciousness since joining the UFC. He has notched three wins, all inside the first round. Facing off against Pulyaev, another dangerous striker, will be a fun matchup to watch for as long as it lasts.

Sumian: Michael Johnson and Alexander Hernandez are going to try and beat the heck out of each other. Despite various setbacks in their careers, both guys always show up to fight and put on memorable performances. I expect this one of the most entertaining fights of the evening.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Natalia Silva. I think she is going to finish Rose Namajunas on Saturday and make a massive statement. Silva is probably the second best women’s flyweight in the world, and she is only going to confirm that with a dominant performance.

Petela: Derrick Lewis. He is the knockout king for a reason. He’s nearing the end of his career and has a tough opponent in Waldo Cortes-Acosta, who has been much more active and refining his standup game as he continues his UFC tenure. Still, Cortes-Acosta won’t be able to take the thunderous power of Lewis, and this one ends in devastatingly violent fashion.

Pair this card with…

Petela: A 15-year-old Scotch. Spend the money you’re saving by not having to buy the pay-per-view on a nice single malt. I personally recommend the Macallan 15 Double Cask to sip on while watching Justin Gaethje obliterate Paddy Pimblett in the main event. Just be careful. It’s delicious, so don’t overdo it during the prelims.

Sumian: Assorted chocolates, chips, cookies, nuts, anything. Like most assorted food, this card has something for everybody. It has two of the biggest stars in MMA today in Paddy Pimblett and Sean O’Malley, while featuring a plethora of fights for the hardcore MMA fan. This card has it all, despite losing the ultra-intriguing matchup between Amanda Nunes and Kayla Harrison. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the beginning of the new era.