Grand Sumo returns this weekend for the first tournament of the year! The 2026 hatsu basho (literally New Year tournament) starts on Sunday, January 11 and runs until the 25th. During the fifteen day tournament the wrestlers of the makuuchi (top division) are expected to suit up and compete everyday. Whoever gets the best record after fifteen matches will be awarded the Emperor’s Cup.
As always there are lots of compelling storylines to watch out for this month. Below are a couple I’m especially looking forward to.
Aonishiki’s Rope Run
History awaits Aonishiki.
The 21 year-old Ukrainian took the sumo world by storm last year, impressing in his first ever top division tournaments and capping things off with the yusho (championship) at the Kyushu basho in November. Aonishiki was promoted to ozeki before this tournament, one rank below the fabled rank of yokozuna. If he wins this tournament he is very likely to be promoted to become the 76th yokozuna, which would make him the first European born wrestler to ever accomplish the feat.
Normally, the Japan Sumo Association promotes a wrestler to yokozuna if they win back-to-back tournaments as an ozeki. However, as with everything in sumo, context is key. A wrestler can secure a promotion (or lose one) thanks to vibes. And the vibes around Aonishiki are overwhelmingly positive. If he were to win a championship in his debut ozeki tournament, having only scored 11-4 and higher records in the entirety of his six tournament top division career, I think the JSA will seize on the moment and promote him. This would give the sport three young, active and immensely talented yokozuna who could carry the sport forwards for the next decade (intensifying it with a fascinating three-way rivalry).
Onosato Health Watch
The biggest obstacle between Aonishiki and his second top division title is Onosato. The 75th yokozuna is the best rikishi in the sport right now. His combination or size and speed means most of his wins comes in three seconds or less. Onosato isn’t just a physical specimen, though. Last year we saw both his mental and technical games maturing, both of which complimented his awesome physicality.
Onosato is the favourite to win the title in any tournament he competes in. So far he’s won the title in half of the top division tournaments he’s ever competed in. However, he’s coming into the New Year tournament off the back of something that has never happened to him before.
In November he sat out of his first ever senior bout. That was the final bout of the Kyushu tournament. He did that citing a shoulder injury. Injuries are ever present in sumo, thanks to the lack of athlete safety/protection during live competition, exhibition tours and training. Injuries can quickly wreck a wrestler’s career, due to the pressure to come back and compete as soon as possible (to prevent loss of rank and/or face).
Onosato has said the right things in the month between his injury and now, that’s he’s ready to compete and fight with spirit. However, that’s something rikishi always say. It seems confirmed that he will start the tournament. But we don’t know how well he can compete and whether he’ll last the whole 15 days.
What will 2026 bring for Kotozakura?
Injuries wrecked Kotozakura’s 2025. This time last year he was coming off his yusho in November and had his sights on beating Hoshoryu to become the sport’s 74th yokozuna. However, a nagging knee injury spoiled his shot at two back-to-back titles. And then it spoiled his hopes of being a competitive title threat for the remainder of the year.
At points in 2025 Kotozakura did show flashes of his best self. Kotozakura is probably the most technical grappler in sumo. He demonstrates amazing instincts and strategy during belt battles. That, paired with his enormous size and sneaky speed/balance, makes him a tough out for anyone. A healthy Kotozakura is certainly a tough out for our two yokozuna, too. In 2024 he had winning records over both Hoshoryu and Onosato and seemed to be a nightmare match-up for them. He was too big and too smart to be either thrown by Hoshoryu or charged out by Onosato. With his banged up knee, though, both men have been able to get past him much more easily.
In the last tournament, Kotozakura was able to beat Onosato. That might be a sign that he is very close to being fully healthy and thus a threat to upset the yokozuna.
It will be interesting to see how Kotozakura performs in January. If he’s healthy then he might be a dark horse to spoil things for his old rivals (Hoshoryu and Onosato) and his new one (Aonishiki — someone he has struggled against, but has never fought at full strength).
Will Asanoyama be a factor?
Former ozeki Asanoyama is back in the top division for the first time since July, 2024. In that tournament he suffered a devastating knee injury that saw him sit out of three tournaments and get demoted all the way down to the sandanme (fourth division). He had only been in the makuuchi for a year, having had to work his way up from sandanme prior to that after he was suspended for a year due to breaking COVID-19 protocols. Before that suspension he was an ozeki and someone tipped to be a future yokozuna.
Poor decisions and injuries have robbed Asanoyama, and us, of his prime years in the sport. At only 31, he’s still got time for a late charge and a possible second top division title, though. He looked pretty sharp in November, going 12-3 in juryo (second division) and getting wins over former champ Takerufuji, eventual winner Fujiryoga and top division wrestler Tokihayate (in a spot start in the makuuchi).
There’s a decent chance that Asanoyama will get off to a strong start at the hatsu basho. In the first week of the tournament he’ll be matched against wrestlers ranked close to him. There’s not many down there who have his kind of talent or experience. If he wins the lion’s share of those bouts then we might see him tested by the kind of names he was fighting before he got injured. If he’s not lost too much of a step, he might have a say in who ends up winning this thing.
Have we seen Fujinokawa’s ceiling?
Fujinokawa was one of the most fun rikishi to watch in 2025. The little bulldog had crowds roaring with his highly aggressive style and ability to out-work and overwhelm much bigger and more experienced opponents. He was consistent with this style, too, which led to him taking home kachi-koshi (winning records) in all but one of the six tournaments last year. In November he finished with a very respected 9-6 record from the maegashira 12 rank.
For this coming tournament he’s been promoted to maegashira 7. That’s the highest he’s ever been ranked. His previous highest ranked was maegashira 9, in September last year. That tournament was the one where he wasn’t able to get a winning record. He finished 6-9.
It will be fascinating to see if Fujinokawa can get wins at this ranking, which is steps away from the joi (the proving ground for wrestlers who want to make it to the special named ranks).
MORE SUMO ON COMBAT PRESS
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