UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Preview and Predictions

On Saturday, Dec. 6, the UFC will host not only its last pay-per-view of the year, but, potentially, its last pay-per-view ever. The end of 2025 marks the end of the ESPN era, as 2026 will usher in a new broadcast partner, as Paramount+ becomes the new home of the big show, and they will not be using the pay-per-view model. Closing out the pay-per-view era will be a championship doubleheader with two of the most dominant champions the promotion currently has on the roster.

The UFC 323 main event will see UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili taking on former champion Petr Yan in a perhaps unnecessary rematch. The first bout wasn’t particularly close or entertaining, with Dvalishvili being totally dominant throughout. Since then, Dvalishvili has had just one close contest, against Umar a Nurmagomedov, and has seemingly gotten better and better as time progresses. Yan has won his three fights since losing to Dvalishvili, all by decision. He will have to bring something new to the table this time around, if he is going to be successful in reclaiming the title and solving the puzzle that is Merab Dvalishvili.

The co-main event is for the flyweight championship as Alexandre Pantoja takes on Joshua Van. This will potentially be the fifth title defense for Pantoja since winning the belt. Van has won five in a row and has looked better as the level of competition has increased. He has a huge opportunity to become champion at just 24 years of age where he could hold the belt as he continues to improve and moves into his physical prime.

The UFC 323 early prelims air live on UFC Fight Pass and ESPN+ starting at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the preliminary card on ESPN+ and ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET. Mathew Petela and Andrew Sumian are here to preview the show.

Merab Dvalishvili convincingly defeated Petr Yan the first time they fought; will this time around be any different?

Sumian: There is simply no denying that Merab Dvalishvili is the greatest UFC bantamweight champion of all time. The champ has gone through a murderers row and has handedly defeated Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo, Sean O’Malley, Umar Nurmagodemov, and Cory Sandhagen throughout his championship climb and reign. This is inarguably the best resume we have seen in several years, and it is only looking upward for the undeniable Dvalishvili.
On the other hand, Petr Yan is looking to play spoiler and get revenge on the champion after suffering a clear 50-45 decision loss to the Georgian. At one point in time, Yan was considered the best bantamweight in the world and has certainly gotten a second wind since Mar. 2024. He is currently riding a three-fight win streak at the expense of Song Yadon, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Marcus McGhee. The winner of this fight will probably face Umar Nurmagomedov after he defeats Figueiredo in Jan. 2026.

There is nobody like Dvalishvili, plain and simple. I remember watching him back in 2021 when he faced Marlon Moraes during UFC 266. This was a big step-up in competition for the Georgian, and he was getting absolutely throttled by Moraes’s power shots. It seemed like, at any moment, the bout could be stopped in favor of the Brazilian. Instead, Dvalishvili dug deep, used his cardio to recover, and pulled off an incredible comeback TKO in Round 2. From this moment forward, it was clear to me that he was different and would one day take ownership of the bantamweight throne.

Since then, Dvalishvili has defeated a variety of top-ranked bantamweights and continues to make it look easier with every performance. He is making a fantastic case for being considered the greatest bantamweight of all time and perhaps even the No. 1 ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world. A win over Yan does not do much for his legacy, but it continues to build his story and impressive winning streak.

Yan’s rise to UFC champion was a thing of beauty. Upon his arrival, it was obvious that he was a different kind of striker and capable of handedly dismantling his opponents with technical striking and tactical ground control. He did just that to capture the UFC bantamweight title back in 2020. Unfortunately, he lost the title due to an illegal knee, but was able to capture the interim belt a year or so later. Since then, he has gone 3-3 in his UFC campaign. One could argue that he should be 4-2, since his split decision loss to O’Malley was questionable, to say the least. Nevertheless, the Russian native seems to be back on track and is still only 32 years old, despite a fairly lengthy mma career.

The first time these two met in the Octagon, the champion utterly dominated. He landed 11 takedowns, landed almost double the amount of significant strikes, and over double the amount of significant strikes to the head. Dvalishvili threw a total of 401 strikes, compared to Yan’s 155 strikes. At this point in time, it is easy to argue that the champion has significantly improved since their last meeting, while Yan is still pretty much the same fighter. There is simply no way Yan is going to defeat Dvalishvili if he is throwing less than half the strikes than Dvalishvili. Yan will need to significantly increase his output, while defending the takedown ,to frustrate and cause damage to the champion. Unfortunately for him, that is much easier said than done.

This is probably going to be another vintage Dvalishvili performance and result in a clear decision victory for the champion. The challenger may win a round or two this time around, but it will not be enough to stop the sheer will and tenacity of the champion. Dvalishvili 49-46.

Petela: I hate when this happens, but Andrew is right. I have really only one thing to disagree with, and that is that I don’t think Petr Yan is just as good as he was in the first meeting. Merab Dvalishvili has gotten better, but Yan has lost just half a step. Against a dominant champion with an unrivaled gas tank like Dvalishvili, that will lead to his demise. This one won’t be close at all, with one-way traffic from the opening bell. Clean sweep across the board, 50-45 times three for the incumbent champion.

Alexandre Pantoja has rattled off four consecutive title defenses; will Joshua Van be the one to put an end to the dominant reign?

Petela: Yes, I think that Joshua Van will shock many fans and pundits alike with his performance this weekend. That doesn’t mean that I think talent-for-talent he is better than Alexandre Pantoja, but I think he is durable enough to withstand the pressure and power of Pantoja early and then rally late in the fight to take over and win the last three rounds.

We have seen Van take punishment, look hurt, and then continue to remain composed while taking minimal damage after the initial crushing blow. I think he does the same against Pantoja, who might be the hardest hitter currently in the flyweight division. Pantoja has also been making weight at flyweight for a long time and eventually that takes a noticeable toll on a fighter’s cardio. Pantoja is 11 years older than Van, and, at 35-years-old, the body just doesn’t respond as well to weight cutting as it does at 24, or, hell, even as well as at 34. There’s just something brutally magical about being a smaller fighter and turning 35. Pantoja will look good early but start to fade in the third round, where Van will capitalize and use speed and timing to overcome the power discrepancy. Unanimous decision for Van who will hold onto the belt for a long time.

Sumian: To put it simply from my perspective, no he will not. The Brazilian is simply way too good, and Van has never faced anybody like him. Brandon Royval is a solid win for the resume, but the former title challenger gets hit a lot and has had moments of inconsistency throughout the last several years. This is a huge step up for Van, and I do not believe defeating the likes of Cody Durden, Bruno Gustavo da Silva, and Brandon Royval can or will prepare you for defeating the second greatest UFC flyweight of all time. In addition, the challenger has never faced a grappler remotely as talented as the champion. Pantoja is a smart fighter, and he will continue to be smart. The champion will get this to the ground and lock up a slick choke in Round 2. Game, set, match.

Who’s the biggest winner at UFC 323?

Sumian: I am going to go with Bogdan Guskov. The light heavyweight division is in need of new blood, and the time of Jan Blachowicz is simply over. He has competed four times since May 2022 and is approaching 43 years of age. Guskov is a fun and talented light heavyweight with 15 knockouts under his belt. Once he takes out the former champion, he will find himself facing a top-seven combatant at 205 pounds.

Petela: It has to be Merab Dvalishvili. He’s clearing out the division for a second time, and another big win over former champion Petr Yan will cement his legacy as one of the all-time greats. It still bothers me that his first two UFC fights ended in defeat, because anyone watching those fights clearly saw that he should have gotten the wins in both of those bouts.

Who’s the biggest loser at UFC 323?

Petela: Brandon Moreno. Even if he wins, which I suspect he will, there’s nowhere for him to move upwards. Time after time, it has been seen that he simply can’t beat Alexandre Pantoja, as the champion just has his number.

Sumian: Joshua Van. This is another classic example of rushing a guy to a title shot before he’s had the opportunity to enter his prime. Yes, I know things like this are out of his control, but he is way too green to be taking on the likes of Pantoja. He is going to look really bad on Saturday, and it will take him quite some time to get back to the top.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Marvin Vettori. I do not suspect he will win this weekend, and that will make it four losses in a row. He will be 1-5 since Sep. 2022 and has taken an incredible amount of damage in the second half of his UFC career. A loss to Brunno Ferreira should shut the door on his UFC career.

Petela: Henry Cejudo. He has lost three straight since coming out of retirement, and he’s not nearly good enough at this stage of his career for the amount of money he’s making. His “cringe” shtick isn’t fun or entertaining anymore, now that he can’t compete at a championship level, so if he loses to a relative unknown in Payton Talbott, who is very talented, there’s really nowhere for him to go.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira. These guys are big middleweights. Vettori needs a win in the worst way, because he has dropped three in a row. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t have a safe fight ahead of him this weekend, as Ferreira won’t let this turn into a technical matchup. Ferreira will bring the heat and look to close the show early. It will be interesting to see how Vettori reacts with his back against the wall.

Sumian: Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan. McKinney is a walking circus show and has never won or lost a fight by decision. The man is an absolute finishing machine and is currently riding a two-fight winning streak in 2025. Duncan is coming off a Fight of the Night victory over Mateusz Rebecki and is quickly becoming one of the most talented combatants at lightweight.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Alexandre Pantoja. He is going to have fun and make it look easy. Second-round submission after a dominant first round.

Petela: Jan Blachowicz. Legendary Polish power will be on full display this weekend. Sure, he’s past his prime, and the former champion won’t ever get another crack at the title, but he’s got one more big win up his sleeve, and it comes this weekend via a nasty left hook.

Pair this card with…

Petela: It might not be easy to find, though, if you’re in the Baltimore area, I can recommend a place. But, celebrate another big win for Merab Dvalishvili with traditional Georgian food. Honestly, I’m not sure how to spell or pronounce any of the dishes, or even say exactly what they are, but it’ll be delicious.

Sumian: Farewell, ESPN. This will be the final pay-per-view of the ESPN era. I can’t say I will miss the ESPN experience, but it was consistent while it lasted. I am going to pair this card with some pho, given the cold weather, and enjoy a fantastic evening of fights.