UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker Preview and Predictions

This Saturday, Nov. 22, the Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena, in Doha, Qatar, plays host to the UFC, as they follow up a stellar pay-per-view with a Fight Night featuring two of the lightweight division’s best contenders.

Arman Tsarukyan was supposed to be fighting for the title back in January of this year, before a last-minute injury sidelined him. He hasn’t fought since then, and he returns to action in hopes of securing another crack at gold with a win. Standing in his way is Dan Hooker. A former featherweight prospect who has turned himself into a contender at lightweight, Hooker has won three consecutive outings. Picking up split decision wins over Jalin Turner and Mateusz Gamrot, “Hangman” will be in search of an emphatic victory that stands out and can launch him into title contention.

The co-main event will be a showdown at welterweight as former champion Belal Muhammad tries to bounce back from losing his belt and stop the hard charging Ian Machado Garry. Garry got back to his winning ways earlier this year, as he defeated Carlos Prates after suffering his first career loss at the hands of Shavkat Rakhmonov.

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker, also known as UFC Qatar, airs live on ESPN+ starting at 10 a.m. ET. Combat Press writers Andrew Sumian and Matt Petela preview the action in this week’s Toe-toe-Toe.
Arman Tsarukyan has been out of action for a year and a half; will the top contender shake off the cage rust and score a win over grizzled veteran Dan Hooker?

Sumian: This will be Arman Tsarukyan’s fourth time competing inside the UFC Octagon since Jun. 2023. His last two wins came at the expense of Beneil Dariush by knockout and Charles Oliveira by split decision. He is still considered a top-three contender to the lightweight throne, but he is in need of a high-profile victory after pulling out of a title fight on a little over 24-hour’s notice back in Jan. 2025. On the other hand, Dan Hooker continues to do Dan Hooker things and is currently on a three-fight winning streak. The winner of this fight is likely to get a title shot at some point in 2026, so the stakes could not be any higher.

Tsarukyan’s pull-out of UFC 311 really left a sour taste in my mouth. His win over Oliveira was razor thin, and it did not necessarily give me any indication that a second fight with Islam Makhachev would result in victory for the challenger. Still, he is an elite lightweight talent and will probably end up fighting for the title at some point given he is only 29 years old. The Georgian native is a prolific grappler, and his striking has vastly improved since his Octagon debut. It would have been helpful to see him compete against some stiffer competition during his current winning streak, but the lightweight division is so stacked that it simply doesn’t matter. If Tsarukyan can take out the always-entertaining Hooker, he should find himself competing for lightweight gold before the back half of 2026.

How is there anything bad to say about Dan Hooker? After his back-to-back losses to Makhachev and Arnold Allen, I was positive that the New Zealand native was done competing as a top-tier lightweight, but he continues to defy the odds and impress. Currently, Hooker is riding a three-fight winning streak at the expense of Claudio Puelless, Jalin Turner and Mateusz Gamrot. His win over Gamrot was truly impressive, given that Gamrot is a talented grappler, which is an area Hooker has struggled with in the past. The Hangman is currently 35 years old, and it is likely that his best days are behind him, but he is still more than capable of taking out the upper tier of the lightweight division. A win over Tsarukyan absolutely guarantees a title shot for the New Zealander.

The most feasible outcome of this fight is for Tsarukyan to take Hooker down, beat him up with ground-and-pound, and then finish him with a submission. We know that grappling is the Armenian’s biggest advantage and is Hooker’s weakness. However, I do expect this fight to be a lot more competitive than that.

Despite Tsarukyan’s grappling ability, he has only landed 37-percent of his takedowns in the UFC, despite attempting 81 of them. In addition Hooker, himself boasts a 78-percent takedown defense, which is surprisingly better than expected. In summary, I do not believe Hooker will make it easy for Tsarukyan to get this fight to the ground.

On the feet, Hooker has a five-inch height advantage and a three-and-a-half inch reach advantage. These two will stand and trade for the first couple of rounds, and I expect Tsarukyan to be up on the scorecards due to control and takedown attempts. However, something is telling me this ends with a Hooker knockout. He will eventually find the Armenian’s chin with a knee and end this fight with an impressive knockout before the end of Round 4.

Petela: Arman Tsarukyan is going to make another big statement this weekend. He is the best fighter in the lightweight division, and, if it weren’t for his injury prior to his scheduled rematch with Islam Makhachev, he would already have the title belt wrapped around his waist. The only way that Dan Hooker will have any success in this fight is due to the year-and-a-half layoff for Tsarukyan.

This will be a fight that starts out competitive on the feet, as Tsarukyan takes a page out of Stella’s playbook and gets his groove back. After a couple minutes, and once he is comfortable after eating a decent punch or two from Hooker, this fight might as well become a tutorial video on how to use your strength to exploit your opponent’s weakness. Using strikes to get into range, Tsarukyan will, then, change level, gain top position, and methodically move to advance position. Granted, he hasn’t always been the best finisher on the ground, so that pattern might have to repeat itself a couple times as each round starts. But, by the fourth or fifth round, the cumulative damage will take its toll on Hooker, and he will be so worried about the damage from strikes while he’s on his back that he will make a mistake and leave himself open for an arm-triangle submission. Stoppage win for Tsarukyan, and, no doubt, a title shot is next for the standout fighter.

This is Belal Muhammad’s first fight since losing the welterweight championship; how does he fare against prospect-turned-contender Ian Machado Garry?

Petela: In short, not well. This is not a fight Belal Muhammad fans should be excited about. A shop-worn champion who couldn’t make even one successful title defense taking on a contender who is just entering his prime has all the makings for a clear, changing-of-the-guard contest. Garry is the next generation, and he will make Muhammad look slow on the feet and labored as he tries to get a takedown. It probably won’t get past the first round before Garry scores a knockout win and calls for a title shot on the microphone.

Sumian: The only time I have ever been pumped about Belal Muhammad was when he scored a pretty exciting knockout over Sean Brady. Even then, it took about a thousand punches, given, there was very little power behind them. To put it simply, I really do not want to see Muhammad win this fight, because Garry is vastly more exciting and entertaining to watch than he is. There was no doubt in my mind that he would handedly defeat Leon Edwards by decision to win the title, but that win did nothing for him, but prove that he is not the man the UFC, nor fans, want in the spotlight. Garry put on a fairly impressive performance against Shavkat Rakhmonov, whom I believe is a superior fighter to Muhammad at this point in their careers. Garry wins 49-46 and finds himself in a title fight in late 2026.

What one fighter’s UFC career is on the ropes at this event?

Sumian: Alex Perez really needs to bounce back with a win, as he returns from a gruesome injury. He is 1-4 in his last five UFC bouts, and the flyweight division is only getting stronger year after year. To stay relevant, he will need to deliver a nice comeback performance against Asu Almabayev.

Petela: Jack Hermansson. He got absolutely demolished by Gregory Rodrigues in his last fight and has lost two of his last three. If he takes much more damage in this clash, it might have to be the end of the road for “The Joker” for health and safety concerns in his future.

Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Petela: Bezkat Almakhan vs. Aleksandre Topuria. The brother of lightweight champion Ilia, Topuria won a unanimous decision in his UFC debut and showed flashes of the brilliance we have come to expect with his famous last name. Almakhan is a knockout artist who won’t be intimidated by the aura of his notable opponent, and he will force this fight into a slugfest that will leave one of these two getting woken up with a flashlight in his face.

Sumian: It is on the main card, but I have this gut feeling that the light heavyweight showdown between Volkan Oezedemir and Alonzo Menifield is going to deliver fireworks and end with a vicious knockout. My pick for Fight of the Night.

Who takes home the “Performance of the Night” honors?

Sumian: Myktybek Orolbai. The 27-year-old gets the toughest test of his career in Jack Hermansson, and he is going to deliver an outstanding performance. He will finish this fight by knockout or submission and enter the top-15 rankings at middleweight.

Petela: Shamil Gaziev. He was supposed to take on Serghei Spivac, but, he, instead, gets short-notice opponent Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Short-notice fights are tricky, because the game plans kind of go out the window. In this case, I think that Gaziev will be able to take advantage of the lack of preparation from his opponent and will enter the fight in better shape. Cortes-Acosta is just coming off of a controversial comeback win over Ante Delija, and he is probably pretty worn down from that camp and taking time off after the win. Gaziev will get the better of “Salsa Boy” on the feet and score a big knockout victory.

Pair this card with…

Petela: Budweiser. The King of Beers. Arman Tsarukyan is going to be lightweight champion before too long and the king of that division for years to come. This fight will get him that crack at gold he already deserves. Crack open a few cold Bud heavies and enjoy watching the future champion in action.

Sumian: A spinach, bacon, and tomato omelette. Like an omelette, this card is rich, filling, and rocks The top two fights both feature top-10 ranked combatants in their respective divisions, and the balance of the card boasts some really fun matchups.